ES Friday 7-31-15

Good morning to all. As seen in the chart below, Thursday was an inside day with the the high of the day just 1 tick shy of Thursday's high and the low being 4 ticks shy of Thursday's low. This indicates a fairly indecisive market which could not even breakthrough either end of the range. Today could potentially be a range breakout day or a look outside range and fail trade. This is going to be tricky because I am not the best at executing this so I will have to be extra alert.

Greenies: 2123.5, 2118.75, 2112.75, 2108.25, 2100, 2091 and 2066.75



Profile:
The MP chart almost looks like P pattern but the top is not quite rounded and the stem is not as skinny. There is absolutely no excess at the top with 3 TPOs wide at high of the day. When we combine that with Thursday's high being just 1 tick above this, it implies that the auction is most likely not complete up there and it needs to be cleaned up. That could mean a run through it and then a collapse or just straight back up. The markets have been quite wacky of late with straight up and straight down movements so one does not know. We will need to have good reflexes. The VPOC and POC both were on the upper end of the distribution which indicates bullish action.




Looking at the split profile it looks like the A period high, which was the high of the day earlier in the day, became support later in the day. We can see that in G, I and K periods buyers came in to defend this level. So that is something that is going to be on my radar. But really it is the range breakout or fake that are going to give the best possible opportunities.



The O/N inventory seems fairly balanced so not placing too much emphasis on that. Current O/N high is 2107, which is higher than YD's RTH high and the market is hovering around the current ONL around the 2098.5 pull back level. I believe patience is going to be the key today to let the trade come to you rather than rush into anything.

Good luck to all.

We should have been long from around 2100 based on the charts, now watching to see if daily VWAP holds as support..

yup, 2100 was a greenie so it made sense to go long right there and prices consolidated there quite a bit

the market is struggling to break out of range....