ES Wed 7-22-15 After AAPL

COme on somebody's gotta be here.

Where's inventory? ALL SHORT.

Ya know what I've noticed... in a generally bullish market, the big money really really hates it when there is a an overnight drop. (a drop AFTER RTH close )
It's not the same for gaps Up, they really can hold their ground and move higher (as evidenced by last week's move up).

For today, I looked to the left side of the charts (Look Left Young men (and women) LOOK LEFT) and I saw that the 7-15 RTH had a NPOC (Naked MP POC) at 2103.00
and a NVPOC (Naked Volume based POC at 2103.75
That same day has a naked VAL (MP) at 2100.25 and the naked volume VAL is 2100.00
Last week's VAL 2098.75
Last week's VVAL 2098.25
and you can't deny the recognition of the Nice big round 2100 number can stem the fall (art leaST FOR A LITTLE BIT).

I hate big gap opens, I lost a pile of cash last week (Monday) on the day we opened big gap up and then just kept going, SH!%#
I broke one of my high tuition rules: Don't short LARGE Gaps Up on Mondays in the Summer, especially if the open is above the daily R2...whoops, screwed that one up big time, and I paid tuition money for something I had already supposedly learned! (dummy)..

That's all right,
daily at this location, Confessions heard, forgiveness given (as long as you agree not to repeat the same mistakes over and over again!).

I am looking at those refs I listed above and figure there has to be some sort of a bounce from (at the worst) 2100 area.

Well, once the RTH opens, most of the time, prices don't even get back down to the overnight lows (sometimes they do),
The pattern that can unfold is frantic at first... Here's what I'll do, watch the first minute..mark the RTH open on a 1 minute bar chart.... watch the first 5 minutes of the single minutes bars... If none of those bars can close below the open of the RTH, I have to figure a probe northward.

Tough on an upside target (if the above 1 minute hocus pocus unfolds), within 3 ticks of the RTH Low from yesterday can be a ceiling. Yesterday's RTH L was 2108.00
The VAL from yesterday is also an important ref if prices rise... VAL was 2108.75, VVAL was 2109.25 (Notice both inside that gap featured yesterday, this 2110-2107.75 area offered a bounce zone yesterday, buyt now that price is below it the Big question is Has former support turned into Resistance (usually).

Could price open RTH and plummet? Sure, anything can happen at anytime. We could get hit by a GRB (Gamma Ray Burst) and it could wipe out the electrical grid, too. (wonder what that would do to resting orders)

You're on your own. I take no responsibility for the statements above. and this might be the only thing I post today.

running late today...we opened outside YD's range and O/N inventory was net short. What we are seeing at the open is short covering from O/N. Looking to see if we can get back inside YD's range or reject it and continue the move downwards

if we get into YD's range we at least need to get to POC at 12 and VPOC at 12.75. If we dont get there, high odds of continuing downwards,

Note where the current low of teh day is....it is the prominent POC from 7/15 and greenie at 3.75.... this was an excellent trade setup that i missed

just read your post Paul. Looks like we were both looking at the same thing! Sorry to hear about the tuition but all of us need a refresher course once in a while so I am sure you will bounce back

Originally posted by PAUL9

COme on somebody's gotta be here.

Where's inventory? ALL SHORT.

Ya know what I've noticed... in a generally bullish market, the big money really really hates it when there is a an overnight drop. (a drop AFTER RTH close )
It's not the same for gaps Up, they really can hold their ground and move higher (as evidenced by last week's move up).

For today, I looked to the left side of the charts (Look Left Young men (and women) LOOK LEFT) and I saw that the 7-15 RTH had a NPOC (Naked MP POC) at 2103.00
and a NVPOC (Naked Volume based POC at 2103.75
That same day has a naked VAL (MP) at 2100.25 and the naked volume VAL is 2100.00
Last week's VAL 2098.75
Last week's VVAL 2098.25
and you can't deny the recognition of the Nice big round 2100 number can stem the fall (art leaST FOR A LITTLE BIT).

I hate big gap opens, I lost a pile of cash last week (Monday) on the day we opened big gap up and then just kept going, SH!%#
I broke one of my high tuition rules: Don't short LARGE Gaps Up on Mondays in the Summer, especially if the open is above the daily R2...whoops, screwed that one up big time, and I paid tuition money for something I had already supposedly learned! (dummy)..

That's all right,
daily at this location, Confessions heard, forgiveness given (as long as you agree not to repeat the same mistakes over and over again!).

I am looking at those refs I listed above and figure there has to be some sort of a bounce from (at the worst) 2100 area.

Well, once the RTH opens, most of the time, prices don't even get back down to the overnight lows (sometimes they do),
The pattern that can unfold is frantic at first... Here's what I'll do, watch the first minute..mark the RTH open on a 1 minute bar chart.... watch the first 5 minutes of the single minutes bars... If none of those bars can close below the open of the RTH, I have to figure a probe northward.

Tough on an upside target (if the above 1 minute hocus pocus unfolds), within 3 ticks of the RTH Low from yesterday can be a ceiling. Yesterday's RTH L was 2108.00
The VAL from yesterday is also an important ref if prices rise... VAL was 2108.75, VVAL was 2109.25 (Notice both inside that gap featured yesterday, this 2110-2107.75 area offered a bounce zone yesterday, buyt now that price is below it the Big question is Has former support turned into Resistance (usually).

Could price open RTH and plummet? Sure, anything can happen at anytime. We could get hit by a GRB (Gamma Ray Burst) and it could wipe out the electrical grid, too. (wonder what that would do to resting orders)

You're on your own. I take no responsibility for the statements above. and this might be the only thing I post today.

Current high of day matches YD's low...

greenie at 12.75. Do we get up there today? Could prove as resistance... all depends on whether we can get back into YD's range or not. The greenie indicates that is where a lot of volume was present which would imply thats where the sellers stepped in YD. If we get there today again, there are good odds that more sellers could show up at the same spot to reaffirm their position

30 min VPOC at 6.5 and we are fast approaching the greenie at 12.75 Let us see what happens

we hit the POC and retreated from there.... no hit on the greenie

missed entry by 3 ticks after hitting the POC and not getting to the greenie. The retreat has started. Should have had a band of entry rather than an exact price...

CALLING ALL STUDIERS OF PROFILE.

If the poor low today remains there by the close, then wouldn’t we have two poor lows in a row?

Dalton says 2 consecutive poor Highs increase odds “exponentially” for a liquidation break.

Does the same thing apply to two consecutive poor Lows? because if we don’t correct today’s low, won’t we have two consecutive poor lows?


Or do the poor lows (or poor highs) have to be relatively close to each other in price?

There are plenty of times that the beginning of a decline starts with a couple of down days and then boomph, produces a one day ‘relief’ rally.

Does anyone know his views on two consecutive poor LOWS?

Paul, I guess the question is moot now that we did not have a poor low at the close but I am wondering which was the other day you see a poor low?

I will still attempt to answer your question even though it is not applicable here.

The same theory does apply to poor lows as well. The reason being that the poor low was created in the first place because day-time frame buyers decided to buy at the existing low of the day and took the market up. Therefore now you have 2 (or more) TPOs at the same price. Now if this happens twice, that reaffirms that it was only the day-time frame buyers buying and not big money. The day-time frame buyers are the most fickle and when they don't get paid, they start liquidating and the smart traders pile onto them by shorting positions and doing stop runs.

So yes, the odds do increase exponentially for a liquidation break with 2 poor lows. The question is when does this happen. You would have to look at some reference points along the way to point you in that direction