ES Thursday 7-16-15

Good morning to all. Most of the O/N inventory because it is above YD's settle so that is something to keep in mind as we get close to RTH open.
Currently we are opening outside of YD's range so that would define the trading plan.
There is a greenie up at 13 which lines up with the current O/N high at 13.5 . Beyond that there is a swing high at 17.5 and a greenie at 17.75
On the lower side we have a greenie at 3.75 (which is also YD's VPOC) and a prominent POC at 3.25 so that is an important area as well.

you are right.
2113.75 is Open,
the test from underneath failed to followthrough higher ( at 10:27AM

now testing again.
If nothing else, this is proof positive that weak hands are in play (as you stated NK before RE LOD )
I will add that price has moved through the open 6 times. (additional proof of short-term traders).

Here's my thinking... all along in today's RTH, there are people trading this little jig and that little jag, but there is no true consensus.

I will not feel comfortable with a trade until / unless price makes it to a region that generates a true consensus... in other words it gets everybody thinking the same way.

I'll look for price prints that generate large volume...on a one minute bar.
if price goes up and prints ONH and the volume (on a regular 1 minute bar chart), comes in hard as price comes down and out the bottom of the 1 minute bar... well, that will show me some sort of a consensus that I might short if there is a retest (or near) that turns back down without needing volume (because all the buyers have left the party).
I would be using a tight stop.

NK,
look at AD Line for NYSE... it is strong...+1500 +

This is persecution of the bears who have not divested themselves of their losing positions.

I have to find something else to do with my life.

Mama don't let your babies grow up to be traders....

haha... this is pretty mind numbing at the moment..... its interesting that AD line is that strong... i dont get that or TICK on my MarketDelta so i have no idea what they are doing. thanks for sharing

alright... now we are looking at ONH. let see if we retreat now

I woould have preferred to see the rejection more emphatic.

it has been kind of a slow motion rejection so far... but i think you have to be more patient in markets like these and give the trades some rope to work with

an afternoon slow motnion dribble for maybe 3 points from the HOD might unfold,

I don't know , actually, I don't think this applies to today's market because today's marekt hasn't been a trend day, it has been GAP uP open sideways day,
BUT, On Trend Up day, Shadow trader says that if the developing VA does not overlap the prior day's VA, then there often is an afternoon lift... I have noticed these afternoon lifts start from lows anywhere from 1:30PM on...(and sometimes right near 2PM ET... that is a time a lot of traders look for something to happen.

BUT, today all we have is a gap up BALANCE day...
still, buyers might be getting tired (I'm sure the bears still holding positions are feeling SICK and TIRED.

The current retracement from the HOD does not have any conviction and another lift cannot be rules out very soon.

I am not trading this at all.

Those are Dalton's words that Shadowtrader quotes. After a gap, if the value is not overlapping with previous day then there are higher odds for a late day rally. The reason being that the shorts are tired by then and the longs see the inability to get value down as a bullish sign and pile onto the shorts

I heard it from Ga guy before Dalton. Gap guy used to say, unfilled gap by afternoon, wait for intraday trend lower , draw a trendline and buy the break above it.

same idea. although I like dalton's better

OH Boy, look at the market now, pressing higher... what di you say greenie at 2117.75?

it is definitely in play since it is within striking distance.... i would expect at least a mild pullback from there

same year, 2012
pre open OpEx Fridays, gaps DOWN on opex Friday only fill about 47% of the time.
While above 200sma and following a 10day HIGH.

Last comment from me before open:.... see 47%, that's a coin-toss, useless info
It is dangerous to have expectations, but it wouldn't surprise me to see 2122 handle print today. (FRIDAY 7/17/15 ) and after that monitor for loss of upside momentum
If anyone is going to take profits tody, it is going to be long-sided traders, and in order for them to book profits, they have to sell.