Retail Sales: Set to Surge?

Executive Summary

• Consumers saved the windfall from lower gasoline prices from December to February, and many hunkered down due to harsh winter conditions. But with the arrival of spring, this attitude could change -- from one of saving to spending.
• Retail sales fell 0.9% in December, 0.8% in January and 0.6% in February. But if autos and gasoline are stripped away, sales actually rose 0.1% in December and fell just 0.1% and 0.2% in January & February, respectively.
• Since consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, any boost in retail sales could be interpreted as a signal for growth getting back on track after recent miscues.