ES Thursday 2-12-15

Bands for the day. Good luck to all.

Greenies on the radar:

80.25/79
76.75
62
52
49
40
37/35

Wednesday's value was higher with respect to that of Tuesday. The close was right at the upper end of the current distribution. Volume was again relatively low on Wednesday with much of the day spent rotating around with the POC ending up being 12 TPOs wide. The breakout to the downside earlier in the day could not get even close to Tuesday's VAL resulting in further rotation followed by a breakout to the upside late in the day cleaning up the weak high from last Friday.

The question for tomorrow is if we get enough buyer interest to challenge the ATH which is ~20 points away from Wednesday's high or if we rotate back towards the lower end of the distribution. The market looks fairly bullish right now so we would need some serious sellers to come in at this point to take the market lower. If we build higher value on Thursday then the profiles of 12/30 and 12/31 will be of high interest. 12/30 had a narrow range with a fairly wide POC to be followed by a triple distribution day on 12/31. Wednesday's high was in the middle of the second distribution so the question tomorrow will be if we can take the singles above it and get to the top most distribution.

If we get below 2062 tomorrow and stay below it comfortably, then that would be seen as a negative and we could see some selling coming into the markets.

There were no real buyers or sellers in the market today possibly due to the uncertain geo-political situations world wide. Let us see what tomorrow brings.

We will see how the O/N inventory shapes up in the morning and firm up the plan.

Below are profiles from 12/30 and 12/31 for reference

I'm sure the answer to this question is as plain as the nose on my face (and I have a big nose)
NewKid, what is ATH?

I'm an old dude and the brain definitely does not remember things as well as it used to.

Paul, ATH = All Time Highs

The O/N inventory is slightly long with the O/N high tagging our greenie. The O/N range is pretty wide and was fairly volatile. Looks like it is finally up due to the Ukraine peace talks. I am a little unsure if we come back into YD's range or if this is going to be a gap and go scenario. The opening will be monitored for potential trade scenarios.

Here's how I have framed out my lines....somethings not mentioned on the video....91 - 92 is the one SD band off the weekly and the R2 level today...also weekly R1 comes in at 89.50......before that though we have an area at 84 - 86.50...also above my line at 72.75 I am adjusting my zone from the video ... just slightly bigger so it would be from 75.50 - 77,50.( because we spent lots of time at 77.50 for the week of 12-29...)...then we have the next zone close by to that above...so two upper zones to work from...see video..


also Pivot for today is 66 ( 4:15 close is there too) so we may need to have a zone that runs from 66 up to high of yesterday at 69.75 but I would prefer to use them as two separate lines..due to the distance between them


I think the 72.75 is going to be the line to watch today....greenies from yesterday also at 63 - 64 area

for me it's always better to trade in direction of Overnight Midpoint and Pivot...especially if we open above both..in the back of my mind is the fact that we may be due for an O/N midpoint failure.......!!

We have O/N greenies at 72 and 73.75

trying small shorts off of 74 in On but I do not have a great feeling about this.....Prefer to use the 75.50 - 77.50 as a sell area and then target the 72.75........my plan is to have price come back to 72.75....the big question is how far away will it be when we get good sells and is it possible we get the gap and go and they smoke us up good today.

on my video Newkid....LOL......one of the bad things about getting a video posted late is that it doesn't give much time for anybody to watch it .......

Originally posted by NewKid

We have O/N greenies at 72 and 73.75

that is definitely a concern for me as well that we just gap and go although the odds of that happening are low. Also I am still watching the videos later in the day so I did not know you had pointed out the greenies. Once I am done with training, I will be back to watching them in the AM

Originally posted by BruceM

trying small shorts off of 74 in On but I do not have a great feeling about this.....Prefer to use the 75.50 - 77.50 as a sell area and then target the 72.75........my plan is to have price come back to 72.75....the big question is how far away will it be when we get good sells and is it possible we get the gap and go and they smoke us up good today.

starting new RTh shorts at 75.50..danger is that we already tested 72.75.....so we need another test or get out early

good point. this is just plain ol slow and nasty...

Originally posted by BruceM

hey , all the volume came in around open print today..hence where your 30 minute vpoc formed....if this 81 can hold it back then return to 77.25 is likely...Otherwise I see us trying to do the slow push up into 84 - 86....so glad I am NOT trading this

Originally posted by NewKid

and they finally print 73.5