ES Tuesday 11-18-14

We hit the 415pm lower band yesterday in RTH and both 4 and 415pm bands in ETH

I can't see a reason yet that we won't return to test 46.75 again but have no way to get a small lucnchtime fade on up here and in the back of my mind is that 51 - 52 area.....c ya tomorrow

well. I am selling into the 51 - 53 zone and using single prints at 49 ( come out in front ) as a target...this is my next key zone so will work the 51 - 53 a few tries as we one time frame higher...so my first try is at 51 ...

Bruce, are you still in it? Getting late in the day now and I don't know if it is going to get back to 49.

new kid...I was in and got out "In front" ...see my post above...so a good but small trade and I didn't have much size on....I never do in afternoon trades....then runners got stopped out

Originally posted by NewKid

Bruce, are you still in it? Getting late in the day now and I don't know if it is going to get back to 49.

Originally posted by BruceM

alladin...I think I may speak for some in my request that you expand on your entry and reasoning for open drives...especially on days that they work...I know some will use first one minute high/low but I'm curious as to how you are doing it because you are always on the lookout but never post a trade as it happens....and that is ok...I am not critical of that in any way......it's just that you will eventually get them to work...so I am interested in how you are doing it and I know you are a fan of Dalton...these open and drives look great....that is until they mean revert and the breakout fails.....


when u have time...no rush....I think it would be nice to hear about and a refreshing break from the fade ideas....

Thanks for your question, Bruce.
First of all, I'm not an experienced trader as some folks here and my understanding of open drives is still work in progress.

In Mind over Markets [page 63-65] Dalton explains the market's behavior during an open drive.
On page 63 Dalton writes: "... The market opens and aggressively auctions in one direction. Fueled by strong other timeframe activity, price never returns to trade back through the opening range. ..."

To recognize a possible open drive, I basically watch if price does not return to trade back beyond the first 30 min high/low.
(You mentioned that some will use first one minute high/low. I didn't know that, I will keep that in mind).

Dalton says: "Put the trade on, and monitor for continuation".
Because I am not sure if it is a real open drive, I take the trade and I meticulously watch price movement for continuation.
I also track developing value compared to the day before.

My reasoning for taking the open drive long entry today: I treated the past two trading days as a 2 day balance with similar highs (2039.75 + 2040.50) and similar lows (2032.00 + 2031.25).

I applied Dalton's balance trading rules:
1. Remain within balance and rotate back toward the lower end of balance.
2. Look above the balance and fail; the opposite extreme of the balance would become the destination objective.
3. Look above balance and accelerate leading to an upside breakout.

O/N inventory was short, so some form of inventory adjustment could possibly take place.

When the market opened at 2039.25 and price made a run for that 2040.50, I took the long trade at 2040.00 (yesterday's VAH)
At this point I was not sure which of the 3 balance trading rules was going to be valid, so I monitored price for continuation at the following references:
(1) 2040.50 (yesterday's DH)
(2) 2042.25 (O/N high) / 2043.00 (R1)
(3) 2046.50 (R2)
When price stalled at 2046.50 (R2), I exited my long.

Dalton writes in Mind over Markets: "Understanding open-drive activity helps traders stay one step ahead of structure".

And it is this really trying to truly understand open-drive activity that has me so obsessed, that I'm seeing open-drives everyday, everywhere...
Who knows, someday I might actually become a real open drive expert!

Aladdin,

Thank you for the explanation. That makes a lot of sense.
Can you give an example where you were looking for an open drive, but it never materialized? It would be good to also see an example where it did not go completely as well.

Thanks for sharing again.

An example of an open drive that failed was on Friday 11/13/2014: