ES Tuesday 9-17-13

Only two areas up top I am interested in and those are 92.50 - 93.50 ( Up against there now in O/N session) and 97.50 - 98.50...

1690 is my magnet price so far.......so sells on a push into those zones are my plan so far...

downside numbers remain the same as yesterday...


a slow push under current overnight low into the 86 - 87.50 zone is first buy alert zone if it comes today

Then we'll see if we can break the ledge

i wish we had gone stright to 98.5, the level i was looking for earlier this am...now that it is happening during ny lunch and after such a long balance i like it less and less (which means it will work like a charm ! )

we have been holding the rth vwap all day (in line with yest vpoc) so look at that zone to see if anything changes wrt this morning

tick has been neutral since 11.30 am et so not saying much abt bulls or bears' intentions (but still skewed to the upside on the day...internals well positive but not initiative, so not adding much info either

gl bkay on your short

Thanks for the info Nick

I took it because we hit that 84.50 and failed (so far), The volume at 84.50 was a little troubling, but once we started back down I thought a return to 96.25 was in order. Yes, last few times I got caught in this lunch period, but what the heck, I'll give it a try.

Sorry 98.50, I have 84.50 on the brain from last week for some reason

i went flat at 97.25.....longest I've been in a runner trade in months if not two years.....I hate that 98.50 high...but then again I also hate that no previous low has been broken and we have a ledge down at 95.50.....so I hate it all

nick - can you post screen shots sometimes on internals when you get a chance.......? It doesn't have to be today but I think it would be a nice addition and offer out some variety here on the forum........and I could use some lessons on internals ...never quite mastered them..



it's also cool if you don't want to do the screen shots , I know it's a lot of effort so please keep the internal comments even if you decide against the screen shots.....

Scratching this trade. Too much up here at 98.50.

is that other ledge at 97.75

sorry bruce, sometimes i jsut forget to add a chart to my commentary...here is a link (the methodology Dt suggested for pasting screenshots is not working with my investor rt application so it will have to be a link for now...bruce u have market delta so let me know how u paste screen images instead of links whenever u have a sec)

http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/17/es_1m_1309171406

so basically on the second pane from the bottom, u can see how tick spent most of the morning above zero and how those neg wicks were bought almost immediatly...that along with the rejection of the onvpoc right at the open of rth kep me out of shorts and out of trouble...from 11.30 onwards u can see a change of character as tick was abt evenly distributed on both pos and neg sides but over the last 30-40m we are getting the same distribution that we got in the morning, hinting at a continued grind higher and a potential squeeze between now and eod

http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/17/internals_1309171412

the second link shows the internals i look at...first and second charts from the top are nyse a/d and s&p a/d...anything above (below) nyse a/d 1200 (-1200) represents initiatve behavior imo (that would be 300-350 in the s&p a/d or -300/-350)...the level by itself does not tell the whole story of course, direction and divergences tell the rest...so we opened pretty neutral on the nyse a/d at around 200-250 and shot up to over 800 (800-1200 though not initiative still merits attention)...but then stalled around that level and could not push higher...that tells me that whoever was buying around the onvpoc was not the bigger otf players (tick not being very strong despite being positive for much of the morning was another sign of this)...and this is not surprising since we have a big fomc announcement on wed and rarely do the big guys show their hand before such an important event....so, i was cautious on shorts given the tick, the rejection of the onvpoc and the jump in internals (absence of bigger otf buyers does not automatically mean shorts, since o/n players can still drive the market in the absence of stronger hands) but was not willing to jump into longs without a decent pullback (or gap fill) first (which we never really got)...if i had seen a 800+ tick reading in the first 15-20 min of trading i would have looked for a more aggresive spot to enter long, but i almost suspected we were not gonna see it (given the fomc announcement on wed)...on the other hand, a trip straight to 98.5 would have put me short since a trip to new highs would have have been a low prob event with those internals and lack of big pos tick readings....so no trades for me today, or at least nothing worth mentioning (i do not include small scalps here)

hope it helps

anything can happen in the last 15-20m of trading...and nothing has logic in that period so they could well take that ledge out