MP Bonds Feb2nd


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  • alleyb
  • 2-Feb-2006 at 7:54 PM
  • Rep: 150
  • Posts: 478


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I am toying with the idea of selling 113.10 113.15 and 113.27 and selling a breakdown as well. so what I am saying is so long as you can afford the margin for me its a sell. just a question of time before psuh comes to shove. Wold love them to take it up first purely for the trade location.
quote:
I am toying with the idea of selling 113.10 113.15 and 113.27 and selling a breakdown as well. so what I am saying is so long as you can afford the margin for me its a sell. just a question of time before push comes to shove. Wold love them to take it up first purely for the trade location.
Do you trade the ES at the same time as the bonds? The reason that I ask is that they usually move in opposite directions so if a person was to do this they'd either be increasing or offsetting a position that they already held by trading both...
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  • alleyb
  • 3-Feb-2006 at 5:17 PM
  • Rep: 150
  • Posts: 478
my first response is have you back tested that?
No I haven't - it's a casual observation - and that's why I was asking the question...
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  • alleyb
  • 4-Feb-2006 at 6:04 AM
  • Rep: 150
  • Posts: 478
bonds up stks down is sooooooooo 1980s. its a bit like saying crude up stks down. the correlations work when they work and then don t for a while. I think you will find that the bonds up stks down theory works no better than 55 45 of the time and on a probability basis I say why impose something when if you look at the MP for stks you will see something and if you look at the MP for Bonds you will see something therefore trade accordingly rather than on some notion of what you think. in other words say what see rather than say what you think
One thing which I did test (not in a very scientific manner) was the correlation between oil and stocks and noticed that they were "perfectly" inversely correlated when oil was at new highs and that inverse correlation dropped when oil came back from the high area.
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