ES 11-2-12


  • 3
  • NickP
  • 2-Nov-2012 at 9:23 AM
  • Rep: 7,237
  • Posts: 771
good morning

volume came in at 28.5-29 after the unemployment report so that should atract prices early on (we just tagged it from above)

above the current o/n highs (and lvn from 10/19) i have 33.5-34.5 and then 36-36.5 with 38-38.25 as the vpoc of that 10/19 profile

below we have yest rth at 25, and then lots of traffic in the 20.5-23.25 area (yest vah, vpoc and time poc are there) and 17 below that

good luck
  • 0
  • BruceM
  • 2-Nov-2012 at 10:07 AM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
that is a double low at O/N low but this seems like it is gonna be a hard hold...we need to get through most of the bell curve from yesterday which usually doesn't happen quickly if it even happena at all !! we also have vpoc from On here now too...

more thinking !!
  • 0
  • BruceM
  • 2-Nov-2012 at 10:12 AM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
the fascinating thing for me today is the mental game....because I am trading for a statistic to fulfill I have my eyes set on that O/N low....the reality is that if I hadn't been short I would be looking for longs as long as we stay to the buy side of yesterdays RTH vpoc/bell curve


the failed attempt to get back outside the high of yesterday is encouraging...watching that closely
  • 0
  • BruceM
  • 2-Nov-2012 at 10:24 AM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
covered last at 20 even
  • 0
  • NickP
  • 2-Nov-2012 at 10:32 AM
  • Rep: 7,237
  • Posts: 771
great trade bruce, wish i had held my short for that long !
  • 0
  • BruceM
  • 2-Nov-2012 at 10:56 AM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
thanks Nick...the biggest volume spike outside of the closing range of volume yesterday happened at 1419.50 so I had another reason to think they might take out that low of the On but this was also just plain lucky too..
  • 0
  • NickP
  • 2-Nov-2012 at 11:07 AM
  • Rep: 7,237
  • Posts: 771
18.5 was yest afternoon swing low, so some bounce expected there and into the lvn down at 17ish
  • 0
  • BruceM
  • 2-Nov-2012 at 12:00 PM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
16.75 and 14 are the key breakout points from yesterday..these match previous highs well and are the only prints I will wait to see before trying the long side on a friday..above is the 23.50 single print from today for possible shorts...till then I'll wait for my numbers

this battle is being waged at the On low and vpoc is there now too...sellers don't seem to be able to take over.....
  • 0
  • BruceM
  • 2-Nov-2012 at 3:52 PM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
based on my options research I had a volatility band at 1408.50.....google haggertys volatility bands if interested or post here ..this is one standard deviation down from Thursdays 4 pm close
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