Where is natural gas headed?


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  • yarddawg
  • 10-Aug-2012 at 10:29 AM
  • Rep: 10
  • Posts: 11
Will it retest two dollars sometime this fall? I believe so, any opinions?
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  • yarddawg
  • 27-Aug-2012 at 5:38 PM
  • Rep: 10
  • Posts: 11
So NG is 2.65 with Isaac about 24 hours from New Orleans? You would think if there was going to be a bounce, it would be now? 2 bucks is not that far away, imo!

  • 0
  • yarddawg
  • 28-Aug-2012 at 11:35 AM
  • Rep: 10
  • Posts: 11
48% of NG output has been shutdown in the gulf.
Gulf gas only accounts for 5% of US production now. The EIA inventory report is due in 15 minutes and the consensus forecast is for an inventory build of 62 BCF compared to +60 BCF same week last year (and in line with the last 5 year average). If the forecast is accurate it would mean the first weekly build above the prior year's level since last April.
Inventory grew 66 BCF topping both last year's level and the forecast (which was also the 5 year average build for this week). The impulse reaction was a modest sell and then we had an abrupt reversal back to levels we had last Monday. The contango in out months has actually increased a bit. We could see $2.00 this Fall but the market is still hinting that that may be a stretch. It will all depend on the weather and inventories.
DT - I see "contango" does not show up as a word linked to your set of defined terms. In case anyone reading this does not know what that refers to, it is when prices for out month futures contracts are priced higher than the front month. On the other hand, "backwardation" refers to when out months are priced less than the front month. Natural gas and crude oil are in contango now and the ES is in backwardation.
  • 0
  • yarddawg
  • 6-Sep-2012 at 5:53 PM
  • Rep: 10
  • Posts: 11
The shorts went back on shortly after the inventory report. I see no reason to be bullish?
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