ES Thursday July 26th


  • 4
  • BruceM
  • 26-Jul-2012 at 9:12 AM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
numbers I'm watching

1352 - 54


48.75

43.75 ****

good luck today
  • 1
  • NickP
  • 26-Jul-2012 at 11:17 AM
  • Rep: 7,237
  • Posts: 771
runners will stop at 47.5
  • 1
  • BruceM
  • 26-Jul-2012 at 11:21 AM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
Quite true Paul but it never overrides what happens with volume and the orderflow at my predefined zones for me. I'm just too jittery !

I think that is the hard part about statistics and that is they don't always come true or happen when we don't expect them to fulfill

I have buyers showing up at 50.50 and at 48.50 so I'm taking my second stab at longs down here...just can't fight the order flow in a zone
Originally posted by PAUL9

Bruce,
based on what you said yesterday about Steenbarger... isn't this a move back into the overnight range and doesn't that mean odds higher for a test of the midpoint of the overnight? = 1341 area.

NickP, great trading.
Both of you guys are way too fast for me.

FWIW, that 50% of the prior week (1357) is often a head bump on the first test, but I would have high degree of confidence to BUY an open (daily RTH) above it because it would be a super bear trap. but if a retracement from an open ABOVE 50% of the prior week drops more than 5 or 6 points, not a good trap.
  • 1
  • johnpr2010
  • 26-Jul-2012 at 11:26 AM
  • Rep: 2,285
  • Posts: 274
next level to buy 1342.50
  • 2
  • NickP
  • 26-Jul-2012 at 11:30 AM
  • Rep: 7,237
  • Posts: 771
stopped on runners, had the wrong level (7:30 am swing low level was 47.5 and not 47.75 as i thought i saw)...oh well...done here...have a good day guys
  • 1
  • BruceM
  • 26-Jul-2012 at 1:26 PM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
I got lazy today and it cost me opportunity...instead of looking at the day session range extremes I ONLY relied on the volume spikes from the overnight session.

I should have at the very least had the 46 area AND 49 areas marked off...I missed the 46 area........

just owning up to that as it happens sometimes and can cost ya !!
  • 1
  • johnpr2010
  • 26-Jul-2012 at 1:43 PM
  • Rep: 2,285
  • Posts: 274
I see @1355.00 a good place to short for a 5-8 ticks scalp. This is the 50% from the RTH High initial move. lets see what it gives.
  • 1
  • NickP
  • 26-Jul-2012 at 4:03 PM
  • Rep: 7,237
  • Posts: 771
monday rth range 1332 - 1348.5

paul's 61.8% extension to the upside: 1358.75....right where we turned around

according to his research there is an 8 in 10 chance the full extension (1365) hits before next monday

correct me if i am wrong paul, and thanks for sharing that with us
  • 0
  • rburns
  • 26-Jul-2012 at 4:45 PM
  • Rep: 1,896
  • Posts: 383
Interesting that mondays rth downside 1.161 was also hit exactly at 121.75. Where can I read more about this?
  • 1
  • NickP
  • 26-Jul-2012 at 4:49 PM
  • Rep: 7,237
  • Posts: 771
paul did the research on this....

i noticed the tag of the lower extension as well, but if i remember correctly, it is during the rth that counts....may be paul can clarify this if he is around
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