ES Thursday 4-12-12

here is the developing weekly profile:

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1334236313782.png

after yesterday's churning in the middle of the range for the week, we have now three well defined bell curves...so the 61 and 74 low volume areas remain targets for long and shorts respectively, targeting the center of middle distribution, which also happens to have the peak volume thus far this week...yesterday's vwap comes at 66.25 so right in the center of the middle distribution as well (the 3rd std dev of yesterday's vwap comes at 61.25 or so, matching the low volume area mentioned above)...i don't have the week developing vwap but i would think it is somewhere around the middle distribution as well

keep in mind that yesterday we contracted so we could have an expansion in the making...the gap fill below is definetely a target if the 61 low volume area fails, as that is also around the center of the lower distribtuion

good luck

good stuff nickp!

thanks

short from 73.75, right next to taht low vol area mentioned earlier...we had a gap in the 5m data at 72.25 that is just getting filled and multiple air pockets below...taking some off at the 72 area (71.75 first air pocket) and leaving some for the 70 area, which is the next pocket of air i see...although i fear that portion will get stopped out at b/e

1374.25 is 50% of the prior month. Now has been tested from below.

There is a potential bear trap in place (bears, in short positions trapped and would feel pressure to buy if the swing HOD is exceeded.

but if you look at a 24hour chart, ther is a lot of price traffic 1375-1380 and that could act like a ceiling even if there is some inspired buying by bewars to cover.

hey bruce i think i know why nobody is posting as much..maybe they did what i did this week..blow up account...i am finish for awhile..hope everyone does better than me..good luck

take care

duck

may be a pull back to 1374 area to go long for 1380 makes sense?

Having enjoyed the highs would you like to enjoy the lows

sorry to hear that duck

Originally posted by duck

hey bruce i think i know why nobody is posting as much..maybe they did what i did this week..blow up account...i am finish for awhile..hope everyone does better than me..good luck

take care

duck

Originally posted by duck

hey bruce i think i know why nobody is posting as much..maybe they did what i did this week..blow up account...i am finish for awhile..hope everyone does better than me..good luck

Sorry to hear that duck.

What advice do you have for other traders to avoid this from happening? i.e. what mistake(s) did you make?

very good question can be very helpful

I'm also sorry to hear that Duck. This is a tough business and I hope we see you back in action again. The only advice I could give is to really look at all the losing trades and study them. Most of us know the areas we like to trade from and the real battle comes with having the patience to wait for the areas to print or to wait for a GOOD signal once we get in those zones.

I spend at least 90% of my time analyzing the internals and trying to figure out why my trade failed or runners didn't go anywhere. So I hope you don't jump from method to method in your search in the future . Most times we just need to try and improve some simple things in our execution or ourselves. Hopefully your journey here at the forum wasn't a complete waste of time or money.

Bruce

Originally posted by Looser

Having enjoyed the highs would you like to enjoy the lows

I hope someone benefited from this sell off.