ES Monday 4-9-12

My Significant S/R MAP for coming into Monday's ES trading. Things may be a bit funky due to the price move due to last week's (un)employment report shellacking. Hope this is helpful!

not so famous quotation:

it is dangerous to interpret markets with logic

WHo's going to come in here and sell this market? (today, this Monday morning). My guess is no one.

1374.25 is 50% of the previous month's RTH range. the longer the timeframe (I am referencing a monthly measure), the more leeway you have to give it, but I think a test of overnight Low can easily trap new sellers short and lift and squeeze to something at least 1381-83.

Today is a very unique day. All RTH markets here and in Europe were closed on Friday, and today (I think) European markets remain closed.

I do like to exercise patience and look for some form of an A-B-C buy pattern,

I will be looking for one of those if ES can manage to print a handle 1372.

The problem with a day like this, short players can start to get nervous before the regular open, and that nervousness could lift prices and ruin my logic. Much more explosive if price can dip first in RTH then rise to trap new shorts.

Believe me. I know I don't know what will happen. all any of us can do is adapt and react.

this might be my only post of the day.

Good luck to all!

I will be posting very sparingly going forward as I am about to launch into an automated trading setup based off Initial Balance. It "appears" to be sufficiently profitable after 2 years backtest and one year forward testing.

Going to pinch my nose and jump off the high dive this week!

Any last words of encouragement are well appreciated.

Thanks to all over the years, the advice, setups and comraderie is terrific on this site.


Mike

Best of Luck to you.

Go for it, Big Mike.

This existence is not a dress rehearsal.

Good Luck Big Mike!

MM, Re: chart .. many lines, no meat.

Tuesday's trendline break didn't see a fight. In fact what I noticed is just beneathe it a loading of ceiling stops. Which gives a tell that Easter's selloff wasn't bottom fishing but rather panic selling. So I'm not on board buying this market.

Originally posted by JDScott

MM, Re: chart .. many lines, no meat.

Tuesday's trendline break didn't see a fight. In fact what I noticed is just beneathe it a loading of ceiling stops. Which gives a tell that Easter's selloff wasn't bottom fishing but rather panic selling. So I'm not on board buying this market.

10 PASR lines across 50+ points of ES chart. Been posting 'em regularly for a few years here as a "MAP" of probability for S/R ... and have included examples/tutorials of how I derive 'em. Sometimes they are more effective than others.

Simply offering out what I use as a tool for tracking and trading the ES and especially equities in conjunction with overall market movement.

But if ya see "no meat," then go vegan.

Hope you banked some today. I stood back and did not trade.

Here's the strategery:



I'd suggest going long carrots (especially the "longer" carrots) and short 2-4 brussel sprouts to hedge it slightly. Adjust the position with a few stalks of celery and, if a report is coming out, a pablano pepper to lock in profits or limit losses.

Also, consider some dairy: perhaps a goat-milk Iron Butterfly ... spread it against Borden's 2% "cow juice" to offset potentially different expiration dates (usu. listed on bottom or side of carton).

In the meantime, I'll keep chowing down on my Filet's ... rare and succulent!



Happy Trails Motor Scooter!

MM

So, let's hash this out, because I know your type. You're an insane, anti-social, delusional, lonely and miserable prat, and you would rather have company but can't even handle that. If I don't deal with you now, things will only get worse; but that's going to be the case anyway so it mind as well get worse in a hurry. At least then if by slim chance whatever unbalanced idea of respect you may or may not have associated with my moniker in the end, you'll read perhaps and filtrate one or two words out of what I write instead of focusing on the red of your bruised but albeit pristine fragile ego. I swear your types should just rape and murder your mothers instead of thinking about it all of the time. It might in the end save the collective groupthink. In fact I think what they're begging for anyway. Just a thought.

You posted a chart with lines that mean f*all anything to anyone and dared anyone to say something about it. I did, and added substance. You freaked. Sit down.

WTF!? Wow, you're quite a bitter b*st*rd.

As I said, Happy Trails Motor Scooter!