ES Thursday 3-22-12

I have the weekly pivot at 1386.75 and they just stole that from us in the Overnight..so I am using that down to 1384.50 as first support ( that begins low volume area again)...above there I have 1393 - 1394 as first upside low volume key..then 97.50 - 98 as that was yesterdays challenge area and lots of time there..prefer to use that as more of a magnet then a trade initiation point.

Further below will be the critical 1379 - 80 as the breakout point from the fed day.

runners tryting to get to days midpoint

if i can get the 86.50 then I will keep one contract on with a target of 93 and a stop at the days low..I will not trail up this stop

cool..and now this midpoint has O/N low and weekly pivot to figure out a direction from...a key price!

I'm actually still in this..LOL..longest I have held a trade in 10 years and I still don't think it's going to hit target unless we get the super late day rally now.

Everytime I glanced at the market today I kept hearing JP's voice in that rough cigarette laced tone saying " nueutral follows neutral" ..

yesterday was neutral as per volume...seems more likely to come back to the middle even now..

peak volume is at 1387.50 so I AM tightening up stop now..no way I would have held that if i was watching on a regular basis today

closed out at 88.25..that's a long time to be in a trade...too long..it will be interesting if they test 93 area in ON

Nice trade Bruce.. again, we both made $$ on opposite sides of the trade.. it always amazes me..

Today, there were 2 trade set ups according to the way I trade ES and I placed my first trade in ES in a long time which I will share my reasoning.. I know my method can be confusing to many but its really VERY SIMPLE

Missed trade - I missed the morning set up to short 1390 (1390-1392 was a level everyone already identified and I agree) simply because I was not watching it but the set up was just as I explained prior: VOLD was smooth and directional, market then bounced to a level 1390.75 and the short set up emerged. Had I taken this trade, I would have took my 1'st short@1390 and added @1391/1392 and stop out behind 1393.50.. The target would have been 3-4pts below the 20min OR and where did that land? 1386.50 20min OR low, which made the 3-4 pts range below to be 1393.50 and 1392.50.
Note: When VOLD shows this pattern, it doesn't mean you just hit it to the short side.. it means you anticipate a short at a resistance level and hold for a bigger target..

The trade I took was when ES bounced to VWAP and yet VOLD held its pattern. (I was looking at ES cuz CL which I'm currently trading was so uneventful at the time and I saw the pattern) Normally I won't initiate at VWAP unless I anticipate potential trend which was signaled today by the VOLD pattern. My entry was 1387.75 and my stop was above 1392 to confirm this trade was not likely to work. Since that was about 3-4pts away, I decided to add 1 car @8.75/9.75/90.75 and stop out behind 92. I ended up with 2 cars @7.75&8.75 and sat on it from about 9:15 till 12:20pt.. Why did I hold so long? simply because the VOLD pattern held and I had to trust in the set up.. Originally, I was aiming for 1384 and 1380 as I expected the low to be taken out which didn't happen today.. I took 1 off @1385 when it failed to reach 1384 and left the other for 1380. HOWEVER, when price reached 3-4 pts below the 20min OR AND NQ was testing its lows successfully.. additional reasons were a churn candle at the level followed by buy vertical volume bars, which served as confirmation. I closed the 2'nd on the bounce back up @1384.25.. The VOLD was an influential reason why I initiated and held the duration with positive expectancy..

I meant to put up a post yesterday but I never got around to it. The VOLD showed 2 sided activity in the morning. It showed inconsistent and lack of conviction in a direction, which meant the extremes were likely good trades. In that case I would never initiate in the middle like VWAP BUT I would fade the edges.. Remember, its not a stand alone indicator but an odds enhancer to help you increase the probability of your set ups.. Otherwise, all you have is levels and they're everywhere if you use FIB/PASR/HV/LV/waves and etc and just hope you choose the right ones.. Personally, I only use PASR/HV/LV and will occasionally pull up a FIB but its the directional bias that helps me use them.. ES is getting interesting again..

Good luck in your trading

Jedi,I'm sure it might be fairly simple to you if you've been using these internals for a while but I'd like to see some visuals ( charts) to see what you are talking about when you have time. It's hard to follow it without a picture. Thanks

I hate to sound like a total n00b, but Jedi, for your target you mentioned the 20min OR, does that mean 20 min opening range? and if so, why the 20 min and not the full IB or at least A period.

Forgive my ignorance.

Todd

http://screencast.com/t/NYx2jMGk

thanks for posting the chart Jedi