ES Thursday 3-8-12

here is how my low volume numbers look on the down side. Above these I would be using 72 and 77 . Not shown. most interesting area is the BAND of low volume at 53.50 - 57.50.

We have a weekly open and weekly pivot at 1366. We have a daily r1 level at 56. Virgin VWAP at 69.25, 62.25, 50 and 44 ! Using March at least until noon


Once we get the 8:30 reports out of the way we can dial it down and as RTH opens we will have the completed O/N range to verify our numbers.

Question for Jedi if he (assuming there are no female jedis) is around:

I was looking at VOLD this morning and we had a pretty smooth trend up in the first 20 minutes or so. Then some shuffling around in the following 30 min aprox and have since trend up vertically. Still, price has not been able to get above the RTH highs while we have made news highs in cumulative delta (some sort of bearish hidden divergence)

Would like to know how you would read this morning's action taking into account what VOLD has done

Thank you

AYN

this is the first week in 5 or 6 weeks that the weekly PVP is well below a previous weeks PVP..last week is 1368 and this week so far is 1342. We have 252 K at 1342 and 215 K at 1360....so in order for the PVP to flip up to 1360 then we will need to spend more time trading back at 1360

It certainly doesn't mean we can't go higher but in order to build value ( volume) at higher prices it seems logical that 1360 will need to get retested multiple times...so that is a magnet to me

these things are fun to watch but don't always translate into a way to make money. We still have 1.5 days worth of trading so there is still plenty of time to see a weekly PVP develop higher

long story short is that I expect 1360 to get tested again and will not buy up here...I wouldn't buy up here anyway but this just adds more evidence to my bias

Bruce, at this stage are we talking about March or June? long story short is that I expect 1360 to get tested again and will not buy up here? is this march?

Bruce you gave us the avrage PVP of the last two weeks do you have the VWAP as well?


To Vasuki; I think Bruce mentioned that he will trade the March contract at least untill noon... I believe all his numbers refers to March contract

Originally posted by ayn

Question for Jedi if he (assuming there are no female jedis) is around:

I was looking at VOLD this morning and we had a pretty smooth trend up in the first 20 minutes or so. Then some shuffling around in the following 30 min aprox and have since trend up vertically. Still, price has not been able to get above the RTH highs while we have made news highs in cumulative delta (some sort of bearish hidden divergence)

Would like to know how you would read this morning's action taking into account what VOLD has done

Thank you

AYN

Ayn,
A simple explanation will not do it justice as the VOLD/ADD and CD is only a piece of the puzzle.. For today, I would have approached it this way:

I begin with my daily/60/15 min candle chart and look for S/R & trend lines (I also look for consolidation and swing H/L as they are basically HV/LV areas.. For tdy, you can clearly see the 65/58 levels on the trend lines on the daily/60/15 min charts - Those are areas where I would be area of to either initiate or take profit if price gets there and it did today in globex and RTH..

Today was a bit tricky - Market opened up above yes's H but into a level (2pts below 65 - 65 was a major level cuz itS not only on the 60min but also on the daily trendline) Although vold was smooth the 1'st 20 min suggesting consistent buying , ADD was just as strong to the downside conflicting it indicating rangebound. As long as ADD/VOLD move against each other, I don't expect big moves - The big move comes when they ALIGN.. Normally, I would have expected ADD to turn before VOLD given the smooth look on the 5 min but we were also trading below 65 with ADD moving down strongly.. It turned out that it was the VOLD that turned to align with ADD and hence the downmove, and where did it stop? 58 as seen on into a level.. since VOLD was trending up and this is also the low of 3/5, I would have initiated there and stopped out 2-3 pts below - (There's a lot more to it and I can't explain it all here..) Now that the ADD/VOLD has aligned to the upside, I would not short the tops unless its a major level like 65..

Even then, I would watch how price responds there and that's where the CD/volume comes in. ADD/VOLD aligning suggests level to be taken out. However, vol/CD tells you how traders are responding to those levels and how price is responding.. If everyone is shorting 65 which can sometimes be seen on CD and yet price is not going lower, while ADD/VOLD are aligned, it suggests the level will be taken out. If however, CD suggests lots of buying up there and price cannot advance and we see balanced HV activity, its likely not to hold..

Its the total context that is important, starting from the longer term to the shorter term - CD, VOLD/ADD are more confirmation tools.. I'm telling you, this is stuff that works.. There's more to it but that's the general idea.. I took 3 trades in CL as I'm typing this long post...

Jedi, got long Cl at 106.10 and out 107.
what time frame do you trade off for Cl as it it can be very choppy?

May be i should have addressed this to AYN?

Right now, CD is selling 65 while price is advancing suggesting 65 is likely to be taken out though this is a very shortable level. But this is happening on LV suggesting small retail activity. Bigger clues comes when bigger vol bars form..

This is a very short term view and it changes every 5min or so and that's where you look for clues

I've just had my orders sitting @6.73 - 6.83 and scalping it to the long side hoping for a bigger move - The key to reading CL is the vol bars.. I just exited from 6.73 to 6.93.. up $800 tdy trading 1 car... That's why I've been moving away from ES and am willing to share this information.. I may never come back to ES... but I've been trading ES for a while and it took me a long time to get a handle on it so not willing to walk away completely yet...ha

I have a buy order [email protected] again and if it stops me out, I lose $150...

Thanks Jedi.