ES Thursday 2-16-12

42.50 - 44 is first resistance to go back to 38- 39 area...( lots of stops at 40.25 now )above is 47 - 49.25 for sells to use 44 as a target


this is a bracketed market still and all the volume this week is in this 42.50 - 44 so these sells are harder I think...safer sells are higher up in that upper zone

below the 38 area i will wait till I see trade under 35 to look for longs

Try Libya and another NZ earthquake......

small hits up here..have 56.25 working.... still want that 53.75...58.50 is next inflection point if needed

a quick video with some thoughts....some reasons I'm fading up here


just an FYI..when I make these video real time I hard wire in my stop and then pull it when done...just in case....but normally don't use stops as I watch closely when I am aggressively trading against perceived trends

Perceived Trends? IMHO 13 points above yesterdays close in a fairly upwards fashion may be something more than "perceived" Yes this thing could turnaround at any moment and head south in a big way but the probabilities get smaller as the tock ticks....

I appreciate your comments but it doesn't tell me much about how you are trading this...it is only saying what HAS happened.....I need a bit more to make it educational...only 4 - 5 points above last weeks highs so what trend ?

Too many tell me ( not u specifically ) what has transpired...I'm looking for what you did or would do...something that has the potential to be actionable after I study someones ideas...

Originally posted by Dubya

Perceived Trends? IMHO 13 points above yesterdays close in a fairly upwards fashion may be something more than "perceived" Yes this thing could turnaround at any moment and head south in a big way but the probabilities get smaller as the tock ticks....

Thanks to all who gave me feedback on Sierra on the forum and in private...!!

Many Thanks to all the traders who kept shorting this market all the way up today and buying back above new highs..could not have done it without you....just kidding..the real credit goes to the Goldmans and Chases aand Wells Fargos of the world that make up 80% of the emini market..their computers all decided to pretty much go in the same direction today...and that I believe is educational...tomorrow is a new day..we will see what they decide to do tomorrow...I will leave the predictions to others...quite frankly, I am not that smart....

well I voted that down because it doesn't mean anything...many like to imply they held for trends after the fact....I always get a chuckle over that....it mostly happens on paltalk and other forums...these same folks think that everything is a trend and so they get caught off guard the other 80% of the time we don't trend...your posts are no different to me....

I had some great sells today especially early in the day and late in the day...middle of the day was a challenge but my ideas and trades are posted...the good and the bad....

This is the hardest part of posting useful ideas....there are those that just like to suck ideas from a forum and then make comments without giving back.....it's quite sad but we've been down this road too many times.

It's all so strange but we need to laugh about it !

Here is the historical action around presidents day, courtesy sentimentrader....

As far as options exp. weeks go...No, they are not all up... here is mike burks feb 11th report... look it up."Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of February during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle.

The tables below show the return on a percentage basis for the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of February during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 - 2010 and SPX data covers the period from 1953 - 2010. There are summaries for both the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.

For the coming week, average returns have been modestly negative by most measures."

Originally posted by Dubya

Many Thanks to all the traders who kept shorting this market all the way up today and buying back above new highs..could not have done it without you....just kidding..the real credit goes to the Goldmans and Chases aand Wells Fargos of the world that make up 80% of the emini market..their computers all decided to pretty much go in the same direction today...and that I believe is educational...tomorrow is a new day..we will see what they decide to do tomorrow...I will leave the predictions to others...quite frankly, I am not that smart....

Less snark

More helpful input.

Do you ever post your trades as they're made?