ES Wednesday 1-11-12

Seeing that the Compx and the russel haven't taken over their late October highs should be a concern for the longs....Obvious keys will be the 89 high you Monkey mentioned , the 83 high and all this volume from the holiday trade in the 74 area.

I don't like when everyone talks about a certain pattern like this rising wedge in the S&P. It seems too obvious. I always assume that if my 10 year old can see it than everyone can see it. Now does that become a self fullfilling prophecy and because everyone sees it then it fuels buying or is the smart money selling out into the obvious public hands? Sure wish I had the answer

Lets see what the O/N does

vwap and peak volume being both at 1284.25 implies a symetric trading range so it was no real surprise that the failure above the Overnight highs came back to the magnet...

83 I mentioned above...so they need to resolve that area...


now we approach the time of day that may increase the chances of some kind of trend so anyone fading should keep that in mind..just in case..naturally we'll need some volume to even attempt that but none has shown up so far.... drives away from VWAP/PVP get met with sellers/buyers..

Originally posted by GoldenJet

struggling with not seeing the forest for the trees...been trying to buy a signal when the market was telling me to SELL...sheesh at least I was able to scratch my trades...Selling would have had us up +/-$600 on a 1 lot in the last 10 minutes. See what the market is offering!

I have fought exactly what you are saying all day. It's been that kind of day for me. So, sit on my hands and maybe let it go a bit.

this breakout to new highs looks week to me and we are at the upper end of our key zone near 89. just watching now but it would be fun to see the sell off back to 1284 area

INDU just closed its gap

Also HOD was yesterday's HVA, so we may pull back here

LVN 80.25 and 88.00 with this naro range crap

Enjoy the great info everyday Bruce!

When you reference OR what timeframe is best to use? 5 minutes is the norm I believe.

Haven't seen much on +/-4 on these boards off the open before. But i think any +/- 4 handle move in the first 30 minutes is a significant event and gives some good clues the rest of the day especially when put into context. will definitely be looking more into a pitbull approach because there is definitely something there and i feel with all the imbalances at open, there is a lot of reversion back to open to find some balance.

I've have seen something about the +/-4 moves from another site. I found a site recently and have been following it that has a section devoted to this and whether they are a fade or a go with, think it's sort of based off the Crabel stuff too.

when doing some research on trading with probability i did a google search of trading probability and came up with it, its 6 links down on google, don't want to advertise this in anyway so if you want to search for it you can!

Bruce,

Thanks for the link, checked out Carl's site and it looks like something I can benefit from.

Hi Horse and welcome...I don't think it is the same thing but please keep us posted..there is lots of great work going on with probabilities and I'm sure most of us here would enjoy seeing some statistics on moves off the open.

Perhaps you can repost the ideas here on a daily basis if they will let you..

Originally posted by horse43

Enjoy the great info everyday Bruce!

When you reference OR what timeframe is best to use? 5 minutes is the norm I believe.

Haven't seen much on +/-4 on these boards off the open before. But i think any +/- 4 handle move in the first 30 minutes is a significant event and gives some good clues the rest of the day especially when put into context. will definitely be looking more into a pitbull approach because there is definitely something there and i feel with all the imbalances at open, there is a lot of reversion back to open to find some balance.

I've have seen something about the +/-4 moves from another site. I found a site recently and have been following it that has a section devoted to this and whether they are a fade or a go with, think it's sort of based off the Crabel stuff too.

when doing some research on trading with probability i did a google search of trading probability and came up with it, its 6 links down on google, don't want to advertise this in anyway so if you want to search for it you can!