ES Monday 12-19-11

Major targets are 1212.50 , 1206 and 1233 - 1235 so I am looking to frame the market with those in mind . As I type I am looking at 1218.50 - 1220.50 as a resistance area and am looking to sell up here. This includes Fridays VA high and a volume node before it flipped down on Friday. The weekly pivot and current Overnight high are up here too.

Any short fades from here will have to contend with the low volume area at the 15.75-16.25 from Friday. That is the edge of the bell curve. Sellers have been having trouble attracting price down the last three days and if we combine those days then we have a big volume node at 1212.50.....so in general we can use 1212.50 - 1215.75 as a key support zone and/or a target.

We can use the peak volume prices and the day/overnight ranges to try and determine which major targets will hit. Then bring in the open and a true range function to determine if the day session ranges have enough on them to reach the targets as planned. For example, an open in the day session near 1218 could easily reach the 1206 and/or the 1233 areas based on current ranges. The real trick is holding for such targets!

Above the current O/N highs I have low volume zones at 1224 - 25.50, 1229.75 and 1232.50. If I have longs then I will be real careful up there and trying to hold out for the 1233 - 1235 magnet may be a challenge.

Just because we have these "targets" doesn't change the concept of selling into low volume if we rally up to it from below or trying to buy low volume if we drop down to it from above. The targets are only a means for me to try and hold for a longer term moves. Below the 1206 I'll be watching last weeks lows at 1202 and the 1197.

I hope all do well today

logically the market would have to hold above the hour breakout of the highs if it comes,then the Overnight highs, then fridays highs in order to get the 33 area magnet....that seems like a lot of work !!

seems more likely to see any weak buying pushes up fade and roll back over to EVENTULLY go back to 1212.50.......in other words it will take big volume to break away from that 1212.50 magnet.....volume is very light today

thanks for your comments, Bruce

sloppy and low volume. financials really driving the train from the start it looks like.

Comments form Eurozone drive that. Draghi and others. France likely to be downgraded.

staring to look for longs now that 06 is here.....air pockets above...keep in mind that we had a failed buying auction so all buys should be lighter

theory states we should at least go back to 1209 as that would be the start of second set of singles....


Fridays range 18 points.....the highs today to Overnight low is 18 points....so failure here would need to buy near O/N lows !!

above comments: read Mind Over Markets regarding range estimation when we open inside value...!

NQ closed yest's gap. Also Euro perking up; Eurozone is about to close, thank G-d.

all of us who bought the 1206 level will exit on or near new lows which can add to the selling pressure...this is even more true if 08.50 doesn't print for us buyers first as that is spot to take something off in front of full air fill and new lows first means we didn't get a target

Originally posted by BruceM

above comments: read M.O.M regarding range estimation when we open inside value...!

M.O.M ??

good call bruce