ES Trading for 11-2-11

These are the low volume areas where I will look to initiate, given Market Delta signal.

I assume by "initiate", you mean buy as opposed to sell or sell short.

True?

I was interested to see the overnight H, 1237.50, right at the LVN ledge identified in the 5 day roll volume profile I posted yesterday.

As I said yesterday, I am trying to learn the nuances of volume profile.

for today, on my crude IB volume profile of yesterday's RTH, it looks like a bell curve to me and if I understnd Bruce's observations correctly, if price opens inside the curve,

look for short-term pattern to sell at 1227.50 -1229.50 LVN

look for short-term pattern to buy if/when price prints near the 1212.50 to 1210 area.

Caveat from yesterday, if former resistance is broken with a large range bar can have some followthrough. SO I am guessing that if the RTH H of yesterday is ripped through with a large bar it will mean two things:

1) expect a test of the overnight H (1237.50)
2) the act of moving through resistnce with a large range bar will also create air. so once the move higher (above 1229.50 runs out of momo, fill of air possible. extra note...I have noticed that when there is such a pattern and price retraces toward filling the air, BUT it does not quite get there, even by a tick, bulls are getting aggressive and squeeze leg can unfold (panicked buying by bears).

also, if you look at the RTH bars from yesterday, it is a box, a lateral trading range. Old time chartists used to take the height of the box, and add it to the H of the box, subtract it from the low of the box.

for current market I'll call the L of the box 1210.50, H of the box 1229.50, difference = 19pts

H of box (1229.50) plus 19 = 1248.50
L of box (1210.50) minus 19 pts = 1191.50

when it comes to boxes or any sideways consolidations there are two patterns I look for:

1) after touching the High, if there is a rejection (a retracement), that only makes it roughly half way down through the box and then reverses to start higher, bears will be scared and keep their fingers over the buy button to exit if the H of the box is broken. Opposite is also true, A test of the low that sparks buying but the buying can't make it up past roughly half of the box, if that starts lower and breaks down through the L of the box, bulls will have finger poised over sell buttons.

2) if there is a straight run through H or L of box, measured move is mentioned above (range of box added to H, subtracted from L) (but remember, right now 7:30 am, overnight H has established a chart resistance point at 1237.50, too. This is important, because on a breakout of the box, 50% of the box added/subtracted is often a stall point (breakout traders take profits), 50% of the box added to the H = 1239, downside, subtract 9.50 from 1210.50, = 1201.00

This might be my only post today. Good luck to all. FOMC rate decision at 12:30 hmmmm,

if you think what I've said here is worth nothing, think about what you paid for it! LOL

Oh I like your thinking!

Originally posted by PAUL9

if you think what I've said here is worth nothing, think about what you paid for it! LOL

Originally posted by dwalter200

I assume by "initiate", you mean buy as opposed to sell or sell short.

True?

If prices reaches the area from below, I would sell and vice versa.

Gm Lorn
can you put up a VOL chart rom yesterday it was such a curve yesterday that i donot see them

Yesterday was a big bell curve with the edges being support/resistance as long as prices open within yesterday's range as Paul already pointed out. I do see one other significant LVN within the range and that is 1216-1217 because 1216.50 was last weeks RTH Low and you can see prices continually tried to find support here yesterday. One could argue 1220.25 is also LV but it doesn't really have another number associated with it.

I'd still use that 20 - 21 area Lorn as it was also the traditional POC and we had a nice swing low in the overnight session...so a very critical spot to me....

"your mileage may vary"""

Good observation.

Originally posted by BruceM

I'd still use that 20 - 21 area Lorn as it was also the traditional POC and we had a nice swing low in the overnight session...so a very critical spot to me....

"your mileage may vary"""

In perspective

Enyamadi, did you get the Market Profile chart settings for Market Delta that I posted yesterday? If not, please look at last posts for yesterday Forum. Pls let me know.

I want just the opposite....please post MORE.....this would be typical of the fib traders when backed into a corner....they would want an excuse to not have to demonstrate over time that they can trade fibs real time. They would want to stop posting!

I've busted my hump here for years posting my trades and my thoughts as close to my entires as I possibly can. Good and bad...folks should see that the first 90 minutes are my thing and then after that my trades don't work as well. It gets ugly sometimes...So now you have a great opportunity...to either rise above and prove it can be done with fibs...or back down....

we'll see how this plays out...usually it is some "after the fact " stuff that gets posted...

I'm heading out for some overdue family vacations so won't be posting for a few weeks or trading. I want nothing more than to have a forum where there is lots of cool and educational stuff that folks can try to learn from and duplicate over time.

All methods and ideas are always welcome here but posting some lines on the chart after the fact doesn't do much. Mp isn't the only answer but is for me...no big deal really... I'm always looking to learn too and I'm just not learning anything about actual trading from the fib posts. Perhaps that can change.

I wish everyone the best and don't want to continue an "argument". No extra words or comebacks to me please. Lets just move forward from here. The proof will be in the posts.

Bruce


EDIT: I'm sending Sandxe a private message so there is no way to avoid this post.

Originally posted by sandoxe

Hey, Bruce, there's no need for me to post. I really thought we can all work together, but I can see that I was wrong.-. You have people here that needs you. I will stop posting, since my posts are not really for this forum.

Right now, next hours, next days, next weeks, next months and next years to come, I see for you the same I see for my self: Having the very best of luck, fun, awesome, incredibly profitable trading experience!!