ES Thursday 7-14-11

Just starting the thread today as no one has and 0830 EST with its three reports is almost upon us.

My immediate levels are 1318 and 1312 followed by 1307 and 1301.

Originally posted by icelandicstorm

1317 to 1318 has been real tricky these last couple of hours. I've been scalping for 1 to 4 ticks but my usual is to look for at least 2 points. I've decided to enter a short here at 1317 with an initial target of 1315 followed by lower. Stop is 1319.

Reason to follow.

I now remember why I try to stick to lurking. I got stopped out by my ATM which triggers a 1 tick profit target when a trade goes 6 ticks in my favor.

Ordinarily, I'm watching so I peel off 1 lot at 4 ticks and wait a little on the remaining 3. This time, all 4 came off at the 1 tick protective stop.

In any event, here is my rationale for the trade. It has to do with the number 3. We've approached 1318 three times now 0730 , 0345, and 0930. We've failed to go higher each time.

1318 is a very important number from my S/R studies.

My own calculation of Delta Buy / Delta Sell volume showed a decline at 0927 and a sell signal at 0930. I sold at 1317 and while writing here, when price touched 1315.50 (0935 5 min bar) my ATM moved my stop up to 1316.75 and I got filled at that price when price moved back up.

I think all of the numbers in this post are accurate. I'm shifting back and forth between this post and my charts.

That's the rationale.

I'll check back in to answer any questions, but the above is my trading in a nut shell. Keep in mind that I have two styles, a short term style like the above but ONLY around key prices. Never just constantly trading. I may disappear for hours with an order waiting to be triggered. The other style involves treating a single ES contract like an ETF and making an educated guess on direction and trading that single ES contract in the same fashion I would swing trade a stock. This type of trade lasts anywhere from 3 days to a few weeks.

starting to hunt for shorts in this 21 - 23 zone..air below...would like them to run out that PM high from yesterday afternoon

OK as an example of a walk away trade I'm going to put in a sell at 1324, if it hits great, if not no problem.

Bruce,

are you saying that you are starting to short right now, but you would like to see price move up to yesterday's RTH H, or yesterday's RTH swing H failure 23-24 area?

piercing that downtrend line after bounce off 1315
100% is 1327.75. 1325 before it
1320 and all other levels noted below
add 1318 as 61.8 retrace level to hold and target for retest of downtrend line if it does?

Iceland, I appreciate your sharing. Your short term trading sounds like mine. I have yet to try and swing tade the es the way you describe, but have been tempted. Many times I have "called it" and been right, but haven't done it yet.

it's called a retest for a reason-pass or fail

Paul..the new summer time style is waiting for something to happen with the footprint inside the key zones I have defined ahead of time.....I'm trying to limit the add on trades etc...so these real time trades are taking more tries in the zones...obviously the air pockets get factored into the trade idea...

so i waited until I saw something happen with the footprint up there in my zone...I'm not gonna waste the forums time with posting the footprints as I don't beleive there is interest and that's ok...it takes too much time

Originally posted by PAUL9

Bruce,

are you saying that you are starting to short right now, but you would like to see price move up to yesterday's RTH H, or yesterday's RTH swing H failure 23-24 area?

site has PP at 1315.75 and 1318.75, I have 1317 all timeframes under daily
if you haven't noted or read, I like the 1317.25 as my key level sub 1320, not good to break below,opposite for above

Hmmm.so much for QE 3....

Now that the trading day is done, I've given some thought to how in my mind I structure a day like today or rather how I try to think through a pattern to the day based on where we are in an hourly trend / daily trend.

So, things I keep in mind, we were in an up trend for the last couple of days. This would give me a check in the short bias box.

Three 0830 reports and not much happens. We are near the highs of the day. Another check in the short bias column.

It is only Thursday. This is a check in the "Probably going to stay in the last couple of day's range and have no explosive moves up or down beyond the established high / low of that range" column.

Now, based on the above, a sell at 1318 today looking for 3 - 5 points was in order. It could even be argued that if you were inclined to focus on taking only 1 - 2 best trades of the day that a sell there, followed by a separate ATM order to buy at 1305 or so were the two trades to take today.

I also traded the levels I posted in my first post to start the thread today, but that is much more complicated to explain. It involves a minimum of 4 lots, an ATM strategy with profit target, auto break even stop plus auto stop adjustment, and discretionary lifting of lots prior to the break even stop getting hit etc etc.

The above S/R trades are initiated based on how many times has the S/R been approached, what is the tape telling me, what is Delta Buy / Sell volume telling me etc.