ES numbers for 4-12-11


  • 4
  • BruceM
  • 11-Apr-2011 at 11:57 PM
  • Rep: 216k
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1326.75

1323.50 ****

1319.75



1310.50 - 1312.50 **** critical for O/N to hold this one..reports in early AM too !!


lets see what the O/N deals us///
  • 1
  • PAUL9
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 8:53 AM
  • Rep: 14.9k
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Bruce,
what does that 12-10 area represent?

I don't have true volume profile running, I have TS's activity bar on weekly showing a HVN at 1312-1310 area from week ending 4-1-11, is that what you are referring to?

I see on daily volume actiivty 1311.50-1310 HVN from mar 29
don't you usually expect first tests of HVN (from above) to bounce?

this is opex week.
  • 2
  • Lorn
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 9:29 AM
  • Rep: 16k
  • Posts: 1,406
O/N Profile.


Click image for original size
onprofile04122011
  • 0
  • BruceM
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 9:34 AM
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  • Posts: 19.9k
yes Paul...lots of volume in there....a key zone for buyers to TRY and hold
  • 1
  • BruceM
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 9:37 AM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
sometimes we just chop around high volume Paul.....easier to use HV zones as targets then to trade from...IMHO....

I'd prefer to see them get below this zone and then watch to see if volume dires up as we attempt to move lower....then get long and trade for the retest back up into the zone


reverse if they rally away from it up.......if volume dries up then get short for the retest of it from above....


Trading right at the zone is more delicate!!
  • 0
  • BruceM
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 9:49 AM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
small short working off that 14.75 high...16 will take me out as the O/N midpoint sits at the next number of 19.75 and not taking that big of a loss
  • 0
  • BruceM
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 9:51 AM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
nedd to get back below the OR high for me....otherwise this gonna be a failure
  • 2
  • BruceM
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 9:54 AM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
taking two off at 1312.50 ...holding one to try for O/N low....but will be tricky as this is trading right back into a volume distribution......like a miniature neutral day with volume in the center
  • 1
  • pt_emini
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 10:04 AM
  • Rep: 5,707
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1310.00 holding for now. Went long on the successful retest of the level. Prolly use something around the VWAP as a target, 12.50 maybe...

Volume accumulating at 11.50
  • 1
  • Lorn
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 10:06 AM
  • Rep: 16k
  • Posts: 1,406
Here is a look at the CD picture. Attempted break away moves on both sides of the range have failed so far however VWAP is in a downtrend. Having said that, volume is bunched extremely tight between 1314 and 1311.


Click image for original size
esvwap04122011
  • 1
  • BruceM
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 10:07 AM
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went flat at the O/N low......Paul you can see the big symetric distribution from Lorns chart......so I was watching volume dry up as we went up......just telling yoi that because of the concept I mentioned before...a good example today



so we need to watch for big volume to EVENTUALLY break away from this area and establish new value at higher or lower levels.....till that happens we will try to push away and revert



so watch volune closely down here.....don't get caught in the break away down here if it comes...
  • 0
  • BruceM
  • 12-Apr-2011 at 4:04 PM
  • Rep: 216k
  • Posts: 19.9k
thanks for the explaination
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