ES Short Term Trading 01-10-2011

ON profile for everyone.

Looking at today's action next to last weeks profile we can see the 1265 HVN from last week has set the lid while the low from last week is the floor.

5-min chart shows trips at 1268. Should be interesting to see which level is broken first.

The Market has a 10pt range since O/N. I traded 2 Heikin Ashi trades with a target of 1 point and a risk of 7 ticks. They were favorable.

Here is a VWAP chart. You can see the trips at 1258. Since the open, what strikes me is the wild oscillation from above VWAP to below VWAP, back above VWAP and now under it again. Not what you would call a trend day so far.

Here is a good view of my 2 trades.

ES just moved above 1264.00. The objective is at 1268.00 and possibly 1269.00.
(It's possible for small zig-zag in this area 1262-1266.00)

Moving below 1261.00 will void the above.

As always, the market has the last word and in due time will show us the way.

ES trading 1264.25 @ 12:08

trips on lows is not a good probability trade to me...opening and staying in yesterdays range leads to mean reversion... The obvious weekly open print is key and would not like to see any other 30 minute close BELOW there. Open and trading on both sides of the range multiple times will have the gap fill traders trying to hold difficult longs. Chop city in either direction now but as long as they hold off that weekly open then gap fillers should eventually get target but I don't think that will be easy to get to without so much back and fill.....I'm happy to be sitting this out now.


On a bigger picture conceptual note.....look at how the bounces off the tests of last years highs are getting smaller...the rallies are weaker...so the next time we go down there is not a time to fade that area IMHO...as we should then start getting closes below there

57 - 59 was a key point as it is S1, last weeks low, overnight low and last years highs

We got a 1000 tick few seconds ago. Be carful here at 1265.00 possible reversal soon. Some times it could also be strong momentum, but I have to see it or I pull out. Will see next few minutes. - Again caution here at 12665.00 -

ES trading 1264.50 @ 12:29

Originally posted by i1hunter

ES just moved above 1264.00. The objective is at 1268.00 and possibly 1269.00.
(It's possible for small zig-zag in this area 1262-1266.00)

Moving below 1261.00 will void the above.

As always, the market has the last word and in due time will show us the way.

ES trading 1264.25 @ 12:08

This may be useful to some who like to take fade trades. I analyzed last years trades and 78% of the time that I have had challeging trades we have had a report at 10 a.m. The easiest fades come when no report is expected at 10 a.m.

A challenging trade to me is one where I am avergaing in to my original trade at higher or lower prices. Basically scrambling some days. The take away for me is to trade lighter on initial positions on days when reports are due.

The other useful piece of information for me is that my longer term runners, ones that go for 6 - 9 points only hit their target 26% of the time. So 75% of the time they donot make it very far.

I have tremendous respect for those who participate in the "Numbers" threads...Pt-emini, Jim Kane and many others who really understand the Math behind winners and losers and all- in , all out concepts etc....but the reason I have had trouble finding a "fix" to this runner concept is beacuse I am in the way. I just don't like to see the market keep moving in my intended direction without having a runner in the market. So in a way I HAVE to try and keep something on... the real key for me is this:


I know my personality and I hate to chase the market.....if I were to take the runners off early and avoid this then I would be prone to take more trades and chase entries...so even though the numbers and probabilities make sense and certainly are logical I believe it would lead to overtrading and worse net results to my equity.

The analysis of over night trades - ones I initiated in the 7- 9:15 a.m time frame is about 47 % as I kind of expected...so those need to be looked at more closely and for now just avoided.

I'm hoping to further analysze all my trades to get a better feel for the overall winner and loser percentage. For now I'm just looking at the areas I know need improvement.

sorry for the big babble here

ES was able to move above 1265.00 but zig-zagging between 1265.75 and 1263.75 . The voiding point to 1268.00 is now at 1263.00. Below 1263.00 will have me looking for a possible retest of today's low at 1258.00.

ES now trading 1264.25 @ 12:23.

thanks for taking the time explaining...I appreciate it

Originally posted by i1hunter

Ok. Look in the 60m chart. Bruce we talked about double bottom and double tops. In a different context but many things can be extrapolated from those post few days back.

In today's 60M chart, all sessions, you will notice a double bottom. Just about any isolator was in oversold, plus the 2 minutes chart was also in oversold at about 10:06. The beauty of this double bottom at 1258.00 was that yesterday's low was at 1257.75! I enter at 12 59.50 with stop at 1257.50. (I entered at 1259.50 because my daily Deg. had 1259.50 at 45 Deg) One trade today. that was it. As I said before in a previous post. I'm always looking for double bottoms....Some times they work, and when they do hmmm nice. Hope this helps.

Originally posted by BruceM

so I am not learning any thing from the comments....I think most would want to know "WHY" but I won't speak for others....u do as u see fit.....I'm more concerned with why people enter and exit where they do......I'm not concerned with your actually trade just the reason for a bias would do or a reason for an exit

Originally posted by i1hunter

Does it matter? LOL I'm posting the time and the price and objectives with a voiding point. Plus follow ups as it unfolds in real time, posting the price and the time, nhen I can....No buddy cares how much one makes or looses. What they care is if they can use the info in their favor. I do hoppe that works out for every one.-

Originally posted by BruceM

where and why was your entry...I've noticed you post exits but I don't see entry////perhaps you can clear that one up for me...thank s

Originally posted by i1hunter

ES hit 1268.00. exited and closed shop. Will see what it has for us tomorrow.

ES trading 1267.50 @ 12:32 .

Originally posted by i1hunter

ES just moved above 1264.00. The objective is at 1268.00 and possibly 1269.00.
(It's possible for small zig-zag in this area 1262-1266.00)

Moving below 1261.00 will void the above.

As always, the market has the last word and in due time will show us the way.

ES trading 1264.25 @ 12:08