ES Short Term Trading 8-12-2010

Range Based S/R

R1 = 1128.50
S1 = 1075.50
R2 = 1137.25
S2 = 1066.75

Steenbarger Pivot = 1093.50

ON has already traded to R1 and bounced off it. 1075 is also a fib projection down from longer term 30 min chart.

I find it fascinating and also useful that there are so many different methods just here on this board and these methods come up with similar numbers and zones over time as key numbers.

The world is a big place. Not just one way is the right way.

Originally posted by PAUL9

BTW,
I have posted before that I calc 5 day average of RTH L versus Open and H versus Open,
in a flat trade day it gives you a an idea of where, the "average" movement to the H or the L of the day has been.

I did the same calc for the MONTHLY

5 month average of the Monthly Low versus the Monthly Open calcs to 1068.75, an ES print there would be the "average" price movement for the prior 5 months away form the Open. (the bigger the time frame, the larger the wiggle room).

remember yesterday when I outlined a trade based on Price moving above the High of the first 5 minute bar? TODAY'S PA was what I had expected yesterday due to yesterday's 2nd consecutive gap lower.

Today is only the 6th time since 98 that the ES has had 2 consecutive unfilled gaps and then gapped lower again on the following day.

Market attempting to find support here on VWAP. Critical juncture for those wanting higher numbers. 1076.50 is showing big volume as well as Bruce pointed out earlier.

Originally posted by Lorn

I find it fascinating and also useful that there are so many different methods just here on this board and these methods come up with similar numbers and zones over time as key numbers.

I call it cluster theory. The more "methods" that "find" a price for S/R the more likely it is to work - that's obvious and logical because there will be more traders and hence more volume taking profits, entering counter-trend positions and reversing at these price points.

The world is a big place. Not just one way is the right way.

Two traders can enter opposite positions at exactly the same time and the same price (i.e. they buy/sell from/to each other) and they can both make a profit off the trade yet they are using completely different strategies that have them trade in different directions.

How can two trades in the opposite direction both be profitable?

I like your thinking DT.

Originally posted by day trading

Originally posted by Lorn

I find it fascinating and also useful that there are so many different methods just here on this board and these methods come up with similar numbers and zones over time as key numbers.

I call it cluster theory. The more "methods" that "find" a price for S/R the more likely it is to work - that's obvious and logical because there will be more traders and hence more volume taking profits, entering counter-trend positions and reversing at these price points.

The world is a big place. Not just one way is the right way.

Two traders can enter opposite positions at exactly the same time and the same price (i.e. they buy/sell from/to each other) and they can both make a profit off the trade yet they are using completely different strategies that have them trade in different directions.

How can two trades in the opposite direction both be profitable?

Bodies or tails? The blue line was the bodies line. The brown the tails.
Update from last nights post. The brown line target was hit with the AM low. Back later maybe.

Update to 30 min PRC chart.

Interesting that prices have struggled to go higher above 1084.50 as the overbought band comes into play.

And then a look at VWAP shows prices playing with it again. If 1084.50 is to be challenged again today VWAP most be support here.

Bruce,

Here is a 5 min chart which I am tracking with volume profile on the O/N session then one on RTH session.

I notice 1084.00 is poc for O/N. RTH high is 1084.50. I realize this is gap fill for yesterday but do you see any significance with that 1084 POC number?

Paul or anyone,

here is a one minute with the highest volume one minute bar high and low snapped....outside of the open price....they like to test these often...an so the POC of volume tends to form here...and vwap..


Is there someone that can turn to their Tic data and get the Actual highest volume price when that high and low formed inside that one minute bar ??? I don'thyave IRT fired up currently

For me they become points of awareness Paul and targets with a good signal....now on a TRUE trend day you will see many of these volume spikes and the market never comes back for them. so the context of the day is important...

The $tick extremes is obviously a good signal in context...I don't want to imply they are the be all and end all to trading but the concept of a large SPECIFIC block and price of volume hitting the market is good to be aware of...what happens is that the market often revisits these areas to see if there is interest again.....

I fired up my I/RT and the specific prices on the two big volume thrusts today are 77.50 and 81.50....so they will mess with those and soon....the day also ended with the peak volume price at 81.50

Originally posted by PAUL9

Bruce,
I looked at my own 1 minute chart and see volume spikes for 76 and 79.50.

Just to see if I am getting this,

today, price moved up and came back to it short-term (almost immediately), and now longer-term in the afternoon here.

but what sort of a time parameter would you put on expectations for a revisit, like yesterday's 96.50? I know you observed late yesterday that you were no longer willing to fade lows, but how do you decide?

today, for the 79.50, price did come back and print there near 10:30am but how do you decide to short in anticipation of that? from the volume spike until the 10:30am revisit, price managed a High print of 81.75, would you just be adding to the position, or perhaps waiting for a $tick extreme?