ES short term trading 7-27-10

All numbers below Mondays low remain the same but on my radar are

1115 - 1116 Value area high of the composite I'm watching - Ideal to sell above there on a gap higher in RTH or in O/N if you dare..
1108- 1109 - peak volume of composite and now todays session

1104.50 _ Ledge but I think they may get that in O/N session

1101 - 1102.50 The breakout point and single prints


We've had two large closing $ticks recently.
Most will look at today as a trend day....I don't, but still like a sell the rally mentality. Third up day in a row..
I think they will want to test 1000 and even down into the mid 80's as per the weekly pivot....Volume lower the last two days as per my I/rt data.. My bias is short for RTH ESPECIALLY if we gap higher. A gap lower will need to wait and sell a first strong rally up with high $ticks.

Range Based S/R for 7/27/2010

R1 = 1115.50
S1 = 1093.31
R2 = 1119.125
S2 = 1089.625

I agree Bruce with the idea today was not a trend day. Volume must pick up again or I think a decent sell off is coming.

1114.25-1115.50 I'm showing multiple fib projections on multiple time frames coming together for a confluence area.

Also on the daily S&P Cash prices are back on the 200 MA. This should be acting as resistance now.

These are just ideas rolling around in my head.

Originally posted by BruceM

All numbers below Mondays low remain the same but on my radar are

1115 - 1116 Value area high of the composite I'm watching - Ideal to sell above there on a gap higher in RTH or in O/N if you dare..
1108- 1109 - peak volume of composite and now todays session

1104.50 _ Ledge but I think they may get that in O/N session

1101 - 1102.50 The breakout point and single prints


We've had two large closing $ticks recently.
Most will look at today as a trend day....I don't, but still like a sell the rally mentality. Third up day in a row..
I think they will want to test 1000 and even down into the mid 80's as per the weekly pivot....Volume lower the last two days as per my I/rt data.. My bias is short for RTH ESPECIALLY if we gap higher. A gap lower will need to wait and sell a first strong rally up with high $ticks.

If you followed from 7/22 AM post of my preferred counts, the minimum target for a C wave has been met. 100% would be 1146. This gap can be higher before the open, or closed.
I don't have gaps on my charts, but note them. Exhaustion gap? We'll see.

Remember,1116 was the Minimum target, if a C wave.

What if it's a 3rd wave or exceeds the minimum? Both C's and 3's usually contain gaps, and usually in the throws of the most vertical subwaves. See if it closes. About a 50% probability factor.
I'd focus on the opening range for an answer.

I don't use volume,. Doesn't mean I have no concept. Volume is not required for these patterns we're presently in or it would have been working for you if you use it. Maybe today? I see the potential for downside too as per my preferred counts. I can see the potential even for just a corrective move here.

It's not a victory, it's a pattern thesis to operate with. It doesn't matter if one works out or you have to adjust based on what you see evolving. Gives you an operating base. Keeps one from being lost on a chart.

only shorts for me above 15 today...I'll let you buyers win big if I'm wrong...report at 10 am///working 1117 so far.....looking for the 13.25 area first today

Prices trying to drop below VWAP here. Volume needs to pick up if the bears want to keep the pressure on.

A close below VWAP, spike up and selloff continues.

I think it would be foolish to expect another low to high day.( it does happen)..we may close higher but how we do that really matters...I'm obviously looking for the high to be put in first today...unlike the recent days


good volume for us shorts and my only concern is that matching high but summer volume can do those often


1108 -1109 is magnet area

Notice the volume building at each even point down. 1114, 1113, 1112, 1111.

Well prices have bounced up off the O/N lows. Still below VWAP which is currently 1112.50.

15 minute volume is running about on par to its 5-day running average although it did jump on the 11:15 and 11:30 periods which is the sell off and bounce.

I'm waiting till after lunch to see if volume picks up. While prices stay under VWAP shorts are the play in my book.

I've got confluence in the following price areas.

1110 area (currently acting as resistance)

1115 area

1121 area

Funny thing ... after reading this post, I'd planned on watching it. Then I roll over to my girlfriend's place for the evening and the first thing she tells me is that she wants to watch a Tony Robbins show coming on tonight.

Btw, there's a really cool presentation he gave that's on TED online. I'm not much into the self-help books/gurus/arena ... because I'm beyond help. My degree in Psych confirmed that to me. But I really got a kick out of the vid of Tony on the TED site ... he rocked the house. Here's the TED link of the video for anyone interested:

http://www.ted.com/talks/tony_robbins_asks_why_we_do_what_we_do.html

Originally posted by BruceM

Thanks.....one of my mentors from the late 80's and early 90's is on TV with his own show tonight......Tony Robbins....doesn't matter if you like him or not....I'm sure he'll have a few "choice words" that may inspire you to improve your life or inspire you to take action at improving your life in some way...perhaps it will only motivate you to get going in some new direction....

Reality TV on NBC at 8 PM est....