ES short term trading 6-29-10

LOL well, i going to start out with a big essay on why i thought we'd see a surprisingly large down move today but the market has frontrunned me again!....

Posted - 06/28/2010 : 20:52:18
NAAA, It probably gets filled later tonite.. i swear to God, Bruce ,this market is getting ready to blow ...bigtime! notice the last 2 days (Friday and Monday) the range (including overnite) has been 16.75 and 13.25 when the 5 and even 10 day avg is more like 20 handles... that means an explosion in range expansion is due ,and soon . I worry that its going to be down(1040 test?) since all the bloggers are generally looking for 1103-1131 ! looks like tomorrow could be very exiting as i have it as an important day!..Cant wait!
..... This was my post from last nite in a reply to Bruce! prophetic! sometimes i actually get it right...lol

be advised that there is an spx gap 1051to 1058, a natural target and today is a gann day as shown early Monday on my calendar! (a natural magnet for an important high or low). best 'guess is around 1053 but not untill the rth... im going to get some sleep! c ya!

currently long from 1056.00.. some thoughts before the open. Strong weakness but no real news causing it! also right in the face of end of the month strength and healthy seasonals. That should be telling us something. So far only a 'normal' 19.75 range has been achieved. daily notes page shows the avg 5 and 10 day range... check it out! I would expect a decent expansion of range before all is said and done to make up for Friday and Monday ,however.Ying -Yang people, the market needs balance! Remember that. News comes out at 9:00 am est(housing) and 10:00am( consumer confidence) ..EITHER ONE COULD SHAKE THINGS UP A BIT..taking one off at 1058.00, holding the runner for close to 1060.25

well, my stop is at breakeven (1056.00) and my exit is in at 1060.00. Heres a look at last nites action...(i would much rather be short this morning than long...sigh....

there is range air at 1060.25 , and air at 1067.00....

Since it's the end of the quarter I have been busy reading my daily notes about the quarter and I don't know whethe I will be able to post today, but here are a couple of things worth paying attention to (IMHO)

Gap beneath is from the opening of RTH on 6-10-10, that was the rollover day, ugh. WHat's a real price of the gap?
I take the SPX cash gap which is 1058.77 down to 1055.69 and then adjust for fair value based on SEP contract. Fair value is -4.26, so SPX gap fill at 1055.69 minus 4.26 = SEP (potential) equivalent of 1051.43, call it 1051.50.

I look at SPY, too, to see its gap. SPY gap still open (gap has been partially closed over the past couple of days) but still open 106.77 to 106.05.

If you look at price relative to last week, current price is UNDERNEATH last week's Low, can be sign of failure, Have to wqatch PA if/when Last week's Low is tested... last week's Low (RTH L 1062.75)

Originally posted by koolblue

be advised that there is an spx gap 1051to 1058, a natural target and today is a gann day as shown early Monday on my calendar! (a natural magnet for an important high or low). best 'guess is around 1053 but not untill the rth... im going to get some sleep! c ya!

... sometimes i amaze myself!..LOL

LONG ONE AT 1051.00... will post later...

long 47.50 print

LOL.. I know what you mean Bruce... if i had the guts to hold on my 1074.25 short from last nite id be rich! But thats ok, i'll take my nickles and dimes as long as im taking and not giving. Fwiw, after abottom here or more likely soon tomorrow the gann day today was supposed to be a low, and longer term i expect a rebound into friday, giving bulls false hope, but we;ll see. God,
if only i could have gotten that 1048.00 short(i think the market stalled at 1047.25 or .50 ) i would have held for at least 41. That would have been sweet, but i guess theres always tomorrow!