ES short term trading 6-11-10

The Numbers:


If we open within the 74 - 83.50 we may get two sided chop around trade...especially if we can't stay above the 83.50 high so be on the lookout for that concept...Many will want to try and sell the first rally up....I will! It seems like it will be a tough battle to go up from here...

1093 - 96 ***** key Resistence, RAT, R1 and minimum 3 WAR target

86 - 87.50 Rat and Gap days low...

81.25 - 83.50 Rat and PD high

1074 - 1075 ******A Rat, POC the PV and it was the origination point of the break out YD...the key to watch

1067 - 1068.75 Rat and YD low *****

The 75 and 68.75 are the most important RATs of the day because they are support. We need to hold those if the 3 WAR is going to hit it's upside minimum target which is 1093 as per September.


1061.25 *** S1 and RAT

Thanks Bruce, you da man! Have a good weekend!

Originally posted by BruceM

You gotta spring for Daltons book too !! Best 25 or 30 bucks you'll spend..read about spikes...too...cya..I'll answer later on ledges

Is that the "Mind over Markets" or "Markets in Profile" book you are referring to (or both)? I am looking on Amazon right now and see both listed by him as an author.

The stats are great Paul and let us know your opinion of Gap Guy.....84% !! wow..people who are confuse need to ask questions until they have clarity

Originally posted by PAUL9

OK, Bruce, I had my questions about whether yesterday should be considered a trend day, I think I am going to start defining trend days based on 30min bars, trend day a day when no more than 2 30min bars undercut previous low of 30 min bar.

I get the gapguys free videos, once last year he posted stats about days following large unfilled gaps (that was the case yesterday regardless of trend) According to my notes, He claimed that a gap down after a large ufilled gap day*** has filled historically 84% of the time (before end of day).

*** according to my notes he defined a large unfilled gap as unfilled larger than .2 times 5 day ATR of RTH

if these stats confuse people I do not have to post them.

The ledge is based onthe 30 minute bars...and I mentioned it because if that 3:30 , 30 minute bar would have closed on the low side without going up above the previous 30 minute bars high then we would have had a ledge........nothing more than an area on the 30 minute bars that had matching lows or high...to the exact tick....so they put in the matching high and then started moving the market down but before that next 30 minute bar closed they moved it up to take out the matching high

In consolidations they get run out

Originally posted by Piker

Bruce,

Could you explain the ledge a little? I see on the 5-minute chart that there were for candles that topped at the 1080.75 level. Is that a level to be tested/rejected for more upside? I see we broke to the upside and to new highs for the day.

Start with Mind over Markets ..M.O.M for short.....the second book is just OK, but the first one ROCKS!!

Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by BruceM

You gotta spring for Daltons book too !! Best 25 or 30 bucks you'll spend..read about spikes...too...cya..I'll answer later on ledges

Is that the "Mind over Markets" or "Markets in Profile" book you are referring to (or both)? I am looking on Amazon right now and see both listed by him as an author.

Bruce,
RE: gapguy, I get his morning videos on a free e-mail list. He primarily has studied statistics based on where closes have been and where gap open is relative to price patterns of the prior day and sometimes a couple of days. He does post a track record of the trades he takes.

In the free video he outlines and supports with some stats the end of day daily bar patterns for the ES, I like that, it gives me a free perspective on some possibilities, backed by historical performnance figures.

He refrains from making prognostication for the new trading day in the free video (although he will, sometimes) and I can understand that, he will usually describe an EOD "RTH only" daily bar patterns with some statistical probabilities, but then will refrain from announcing a trade until he has reviewed data just before the open (the opening comment he makes for paying subscribers). Hey, he's entitled to do that. I find his EOD bar chart comments interesting and useful.

I know he doesn't want to give away "the store," but I keep excellent notes and (for instance), on Friday, I was able to use my notes to cite 84% historical odds of a down gap following a large unfilled gap and I didn't really need any other qualifications, but this morning (Monday), I got the chance to read what he sent to his subscribers before Friday's open and he opted to NOT trade the open due to other stats. AND, he didn't even mention the 84% down gap fill stat.


really kind of amazing and not profitable for Friday. But I can sympathize, I, too have suffered analysis paralysis.

On Friday morning, I mentioned the 84% fill stat to a friend of mine and he immediately responded "What do you expect? Let's keep it simple. A gap down following a huge UP day... momentum is up, shorts who held overnight gonna get squeezed if price breaks above the high of the first 15minutes (He was referring to the 1st 15minutes of RTH)."

He was right.

I like getting the videos and I do document the daily bar chart observations he makes. He is truly a stat-hound. He also has a live trading room and in his morning video sometimes relates intraday trades he has made (win or lose).

Opening gap for me is just not enough (although my goal is trade up until noon only, unless certain conditions in place and I have described one of them below).

I was gung ho for gap fill on Friday, Gpguy did not even mention the 84% fill stats, instead, he cited risk of gaps down having weaker odds of filling on Fridays, and risk of only 63% fill when Open is above H of day before yesterday H (he does not know exactly where the Open will be, it happened to have been .50 points below the H of 2 days prior, But Honestly, that was a positive to me.) he presents stats and opinion just before the RTH open).

I have no affiliation with him, I am not a subscriber. I have e-mailed him with questions and observations about his comments and he has delivered same-day response to every single e-mail I have sent him (honestly and openly). I think I read somewhere that he is a gulf war veteran who created a computer based business and then sold it for big bucks and then started his statistical analysis of trading the ES open.

At sometime I do think I will pay the nominal trial fee to see what his live trading room is like because I have appreciated some of the intraday trades he has made and has related in his video... there is a pretty good analysis of the intraday market. Like the other day, Thursday, when the market had gapped up hugely I remembered one of his intraday trades from months ago (that he had reviewed in his "gap-wrap") Huge gap, unfilled intraday, often sees late afternoon lift into the close due to bears who have shorted intraday giving up and forced to buy to cover.

Has there been a study, or is there a link for more info about the rat

I know this is here on mypivots :
Rats are fixed prices around which the Emini S&P500 (ES) is said to pivot based on the last 2 whole numbers of the price. The last 2 whole numbers of the ES at their extremes are 00 and 100. Using these as starting points we split them 4 times to get all of our rat levels at 6.25 points apart.

This says they are said to pivot .. this is why I ask if there is more info. about them

TIA