ES short term trading 5-28-10

Anyone trading today?? anyone shorting 06.25?

some babbling thoughts....if we assume only a 12.5 point range today then that will be two Ratchets....so once one prints we can not only use our range estimate but also the ratchet levels to fiqure out the two scenarios where the market will trade...assuming our range estimations are valid


suppose the market opens at 1102 and goes up into 1106.25 and you go short based on your work........that's a ratchet number and you think the market will trade at least 12.5 points today.....so you know two ratchet levels will have to print in order to get a 12.5 point range...so which ratchets will have to print...? Ah ..the billion dollar question

Will the market drop from your 1106.25 and trade to 1100 and 1093.75 ? Will it hold at 1100 ratchet and trade back trough your 1106.25 and trade to 1112.50 ? Will your trade fail and will the market trade to 1112.50 to get your 12.5 points of range?

No question that the Ratchets will trade if the volatility stays somewhat constant..is 12.5 point range too conservative in this environment? Perhaps, so we can expand and go for three ratchets...

Anyway I'm just pointing out some basic ideas...

If I was smarter yesterday I would have made more money....In the RTh session we didn't trade to 1081.25 but traded to 1087.50 and 1093.75...In the current volatility we have been trading at least 3 ratchets if not more per day.....so was it wise for me to take shorts up at 96 - 97 area...no..not really because from those prices we would of had to have another massive afternoon selloff....and go all the way from 97.....down through 93.75 ( one ratchet) , through the 87.50 ( second ratchet) and then tag 81.25 in order to trade three ratchets like we have been.....

It was obviously much easier for the market to go from 97 or the 93.75 ratchet up into the 1100 like it did.....just some thoughts..please can someone let me know if this concept is actually understandable..??

Good trading today...

Fairly Neutral O/N session and no retest of 1100 after the 1106.25 print.....still have ledges and data gaps below..from yd..single prints too..

so 1100 prints soon after the opening...so if we assume 12.5 points of range today then 1106.25 or 1093.75 must print...even both....this is no differentthen range estimation except we have specific fixed numbers that never change

For what little I know about the market no number stands a chance in the first (RTH 1/2 hr) of trading. Also that these rachet #'s become valid once we get a 30 min close above/below it.

I am not trading, just about ready to do some yard work but before I shut the machines down, here is something that might tie in to 93 handle print.

5 day average of L versus the open comes in today at 1093.00
5 day average f H versus open comes in today at 1113.90

these are just averages.

good trading to all.

Paul9: Why are your #s different than the 5 day average L/H posted on mypivots. Life whats your calculation concept....care to share...

we seem to be accepting price insid ethat spike from YD and we tested 93.75.....I'm trading now with upside bias to target YD highs

possibly a good filter..I've been looking at that and the 15 minute closes..potential there

Originally posted by ak1

For what little I know about the market no number stands a chance in the first (RTH 1/2 hr) of trading. Also that these rachet #'s become valid once we get a 30 min close above/below it.

Bruce what made you have a downside bias...i ask because I had an upside bias based on small gap as well as looking at the daily candles.

Feng..we printed and failed at 1106.25 in O/N and we have ledges and gaps down in the 91.25 - 93 area from YD RTH that was an initial magnet...they still exist so I have conflicts between those and a strong close that should break YD highs at some point


now I'm noticing that 93.75 didn't print...I have the low at 94 even...so that messed up my long bias....obviously a bunch of us haven't a clue right now...buying tail on 30 minute but it seems to be failing

triples at 97.50 and that is early for triples...confirms Pauls Low volume assumption

Anyone position long right now. I shorted at 1100 on Friday with my stop at 1110. Could use a looser stop. This could push into 1125. The trend to me is still down and feel the upside if this trades back down to 1040 again is very big. The break of that support could send the market into a free fall. 950,875,800. These levels will be next to be tested if that happens. The jobs numbers seem to be pretty important in terms of what the bulls are doing. I'm short two contracts. No price target looking to use two stops. Bring one to entry and the other as a trailing stop if I get onside.

Also if anyone has money kicking around CME in my opinion is a decent long. Nice on the charts Daily and Weekly. CME Group was heavily involved in the package to Europe. Trading at $316. Stop at $290. This thing was up near $700. It will see $450 again on the conservative side. 8-9 percent risk for 50 to 100 percent return. This is a longer time frame trade. 1 year or more.