7am-9am ES breakout

5 points which ever comes first. I am going to run 2.5points later.

10/06 +5
10/07 +5
10/08 -5
10/09 +5
10/12 +5
10/13 +5
10/14 -5
10/15 +5
10/16 -5
10/19 -5
10/20 +5
10/21 +5
10/22 -5
10/23 -5
10/26 +5
10/27 +5
10/28 +5
10/29 -5
10/30 -5
11/02 -5
11/03 +5
11/04 +5
11/05 +5
11/06 +5
11/09 -5
11/10 -5
11/11 -5
11/12 +5
11/13 +5
11/16 +5
11/17 -5
11/18 +5
11/19 -5
11/20 +5
11/23 +5
11/24 +5
11/25 -5
11/26 +5
11/27 +5
11/30 -5
12/01 +5
12/02 -5
12/03 -5
12/04 +5
12/07 -5
12/08 -5
12/09 +5
12/10 +5
12/14 -5
12/15 +5 (filled at the end of the next day)
12/16 -5 (trade went in the opposite side of the previous days signal, while still in the trade)
12/17 trade open



29 winners
22 losers

gross profit of $1,750.00 per contract.

largest draw down was 15points.

Largest string of profits was 20 points.

Conclusion is this would have to be traded with a fairly large number of contracts since its less than 60% accurate. Looks like is going to be a nice addition to the automated group.

I agree that any system needs to be looked at from all dirrections. Looking at the direction of the 10, 30, 60, 240 minute charts is very important with this system. Also look at the TF market with this system. I am seeing some excellent opportunties there.

John

I agree John14 ..great potential for those who put in the time. My suggestion is we all just step back, have plenty of spiced egg nog and enjoy the holiday season.......

Well said Bruce. Everyone has some kind of holiday distractions going on, the markets aren't moving as they normally do, so let's take a break, clear the mind & make a plan for next year. Nothing is going to work really well xmas week. IMHO

Originally posted by pularis

You really need to relax a bit - not sure why you think someone can lose 1 full ES point when entering using a stop order causing the gap between the results.

It was generous of you to share the method but the backtest has to be accurate, as traders we make our living in a region that at times can span a few ticks. Making sweeping assumptions by eyeballing the chart is not good enough. There are people who might be tempted to put their hard earned money to follow this system and they will learn some expensive lessons.

A thorough backtest taking into account limit fills actually reveals that this system in it's current form has no statistical edge of any kind over a longer period of time.

Since you are keen on making this better with your very positive and receptive attitude, here are some thoughts

1. A day of week analysis might shed some light on workings of the system. Days of week have range expansion patterns and it can impact such a system.
2. Overnight gaps/range can be used as well to filter trades.
3. Instead of buying at the initial breakout , you can test buying/selling at the first pullback to the hi/lo channel or a percent retracement into the channel.
4. Plotting the 7 - 9 range on a scatter plot for the winning/losing trades can also give interesting clues.

And finally, if this is how you deal with problems you Sir are in the wrong business ( assuming you are in the business though it's beyond my knowing And I really couldn't care less ) . If an honest enquiry can get you to start jumping up and down, I can imagine what you are like when you are trading.

You are kind enough to share ideas, all you have to do is accept all feedback with an open mind which can lead to constructive collaborative efforts and we can all come out ahead.

I did mis calculate a couple of days by not allowing for slippage. But I think its still going to be a good system. Check your inbox I sent you an email. This was a good reply I gave you the thumbs up as a gesture.

Originally posted by pularis

I'll keep this short since you in no mood to listen

You have 11/7 as a + day in your result - it happens to be a Saturday.

The fillowing were losing days

11/12/2009
11/10/2009
11/9/2009
11/5/2009
11/4/2009
11/2/2009
10/30/2009
10/29/2009
10/28/2009
10/27/2009
10/26/2009

Out of 13 days on which you got fills, only 2 were winning days. - 11/3 and 11/11.

I have been trading a system similar to this for 3 years come Jan. and one thing about systems they run into periods of feast and famine like all other things and this 2 weeks is no different, after this famine period there was 16 straight wining days which pays for the losses then some.

i know this is off topic but i didnt want to start a new thread.

does volume go back to "normal" first week of January or is trading next week (last week of Dec minus holidays) going to be pretty normal as well?

I posted my answer here for feng456:

Holiday Volume

thank you very much