ES Map/Analysis for 10/30/09

Here's a 15 minute ES chart with the "price action" S/R levels in BLUE ... also have Wkly Pivots overlayed with red being median and green as S/R levels.

Using these prices as "inflection zones" to trade off of based on how price action during the current session unfolds around them. In other words, they can be places to get long OR short (or to take profits on a current position).

Would welcome any and all comments and analysis and additional charts for mapping/planning Friday. The more inputs and varied analysis, the better.

best is 58.25 and trying to hold the last two for those highs....

just a quick FYI...I was filled at 52.75 and not at the lows of the day...I go market quite often...once in a zone...damn 30 minute range gonna pop one way and soon

will looks for signs of buying IF we take out the 30 minute/60 minute low first

hey Bruce, this ain't no thread jack ... analysis, explanation, anticipated signif price areas and trades is the whole purpose of the thread ... good stuff

some cross currents in mkt ... seems to be going nowhere in a hurry right now ... ran out the 30 min low and came right back in ... been walking all over a price level I had at 57 area and globex low of 55.75 and daily mid-pivot as well ... seems for now to be holding up above Wkly S2 of 53 ... Naz stronger today so far

still acting (and feels) range-bound ... will watch and maybe find a decent scalp setup ... no trade today yet ... and don't want to overtrade this type of current price action personally

well, bot retest of morning low getting long at 52.00 & took 2 tick loss, had tightened up my stop quickly ... mkt broke down and saw what seemed like real selling pressure ... watched a slight bounce/roll-ver (looking at 1m chart) that held under Daily S1 and shorted @48.50 ... considered covering 45.00 area I had as likely support, but sliced right thru it ... ended up scalping out @44.50 on a bounce (past tense, but couldn't post as was engrossed in the trade)

kinda stressful 2nd trade ... thot possibly too far into move but had to take it with a tight stop ... kept waiting for a spike whip up that never came ... will prob retest that low as mkt couldn't get back above 1048 area ... just observing now

ok MM..gald that's ok...best trade for me was the one I didn't take and mention this only for conceptional reasons.....

I almost went long at 48 but then I was thinking about the failures at the other volume...specifically the 1061, 1057 and 1051...and here is the point.....we broke through all that volume and had yet to take out the previous days high or low ( 85 % probability) so why would I get long when we were so close to yesterdays lows....? So I stood aside and didn't have the good sense to get short but it saved me from the loss........anyway I hope some of this babbling makes snese at times......I'd do up some charts at market end but it's actually easier to babble as I'm working my way thorugh it......far more stressful though...thanks for your input too!!

quote:

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Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

hey Bruce, this ain't no thread jack ... analysis, explanation, anticipated signif price areas and trades is the whole purpose of the thread ... good stuff

some cross currents in mkt ... seems to be going nowhere in a hurry right now ... ran out the 30 min low and came right back in ... been walking all over a price level I had at 57 area and globex low of 55.75 and daily mid-pivot as well ... seems for now to be holding up above Wkly S2 of 53 ... Naz stronger today so far

still acting (and feels) range-bound ... will watch and maybe find a decent scalp setup ... no trade today yet ... and don't want to overtrade this type of current price action personally

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Totally enjoy what you referred to as your babble (now officially dubbed "BruceBabble," thots and anlysis on mkt). Glad ya didn't load up long. Was long and wrong at test of day's low earlier which helped me see/feel the real selling coming in. I nearly didn't take that 1 short I ended up in but the magnitude of selling pressure and persistence led me to anticipate a pretty high probability of more follow-thru.

I get insightful rationale from your BruceBabble that comes from a little different angle than my observations ... so the synergy proves helpful ... and I'm always learning something new too. Thanks! There's always opportunity cost in missed trades ... but when it turns out you missed out on a "negative opportunity" (that sounds like the silly term "negative earnings" ... oxymorons abound) ... then you've prevented a dent in the account. In that case, I'll take the sidelines in that situation on any day ... good market read and description on that call.

quote:

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Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

well, bot retest of morning low getting long at 52.00 & took 2 tick loss, had tightened up my stop quickly ... mkt broke down and saw what seemed like real selling pressure ...

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Hi MM,

What did you actually see that led you to conclude that there was real selling pressure? tape reading, or was it just because it broke 1052 ?

Hey phileo,

On my girlfriend's computer after a few brews celebrating her passage out of the 30's, so I'm gonna try and wing it from memory. You asked how I concluded there was "real" selling pressure?

1. I'd gotten long 4 cons a couple of ticks above the earlier session low on a retest ... were in a choppy environment on the charts and the tape flow watching the DOM ... but I took a loss and watched how, when it initially broke down that price would not bounce more that a couple/few ticks (and only for a few seconds) before pushing down to even further lows ... could be seen on the 5min chart and DOM ... but especially on 1min chart

2. That type of trading action persisted and I could see and "feel" the selling coming in and not letting up ... both on the 1min chart visually and on the DOM and where size was going off at the bid

3. In my past experience this often is the initiation of an intraday TREND move, especially coming out of sideways, choppy action

4. Price was also trading below Wkly S2 Pvt too (after trading just slightly above, but weakly, for a bit)

5. At that point I'd been long and wrong and "felt" the market ... at least that was my tape/chart reading opinion fwiw

6. So, with the likelihood of a persistent trend type of action ... there was more to come ... so I was then looking for a setup/place/way to participate and get in short, which I did for a multi-point scalp on 2 cons.

This is the best I can offer for now. Feel free to take what I've written and ask more questions that'll force me to drill down even more to explain/describe what I was seeing/feeling. It would be a good exercise for me and probably help me understand more about my own trading.

Thanks for asking btw!!

Oh yeah, I work off of potentil price action support resistance levels and watch what and how price acts around them (with daily and espec. wkly floor pvts in the background ... secondary but aware of them). I'm cognizant of the daily charts but trade off of the 5m and 1m charts and I guess tape reading watching the DOM, espec when price approaches these levels I'm looking at coming into the day. But also, as the day unfolds, there's price levels that assert themselves that I pay attention to. I also keep an eye on the TICK for extremes and also where it spends most of its time above or below the zero line. And I'm also aware of the Russell 2000, Naz and Dow action. Constantly scanning all of this and only here and there will notice a volume spike on a 5m and 1m chart that may add to my read of an extreme/exhaustion. Feel like I'm babbling now. I also totally enjoy Bruces MP related analysis reads along with his other observations from his trading experience. And what I look at and read/feel isn't always right obviously ... but over time it's putting me in decent trades more often than not ... and typically with bigger profitable trades vs. how much lost on trades that went/go against my approach/trades.

MM,

thx for the response, and not to worry, it was far from being babble.... Actually some useful tidbits.