Daily Trades SP-Dow-NQ-Dax-FTSE

I will start posting trades here Daily around 6pm EST for US market, and 6am GMT for EU market. Aggressive traders may enter trades as soon as they are posted. Conservative 30 min before market opens. All orders Order Cancels Order. All trades to be closed at Market Close. Results will be posted Daily as well.


SP BUY 1073.00 TP1 1075.00 TP21078.00 SL 1063.00
SP SELL 1046.00 TP1 1044.00 TP21041.00 SL 1056.00
DOW BUY 9840.00 TP1 9850.00 TP2 9865.00 SL 9815.00
DOW SELL 9628.00 TP1 9618.00 TP2 9603.00 SL 9653.00
NQ BUY 1747.00 TP1 1749.00 TP2 1752.00 SL 1737.00
NQSELL 1698.00 TP1 1696.00 TP2 1693.00 SL 1708.00

DAX Futures Signals will be posted at 7am GMT
FTSE Futures Signals will be posted at 8am GMT

BUY FTSE 5205.00 TP1 5215.00 TP2 5230.00 SL 5180.00
SELL FTSE 5064.00 TP1 5054.00 TP2 5039.00 SL 5089.00
BUY DAX 5842.00 TP1 5867.00 TP2 5892.00 SL 5792.00
SELL DAX 5623.00 TP1 5598.00 TP2 5573.00 SL 5673.00

quote:

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Originally posted by FuturesAlpha
SP BUY 1073.00 TP1 1075.00 TP21078.00 SL 1063.00
SP SELL 1046.00 TP1 1044.00 TP21041.00 SL 1056.00

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hmmm.... 10 point stop for a 2 point gain ...

To fully evaluate the needed winning percentage here we'd really have to know how often the second target is hit, which is 5 points. I'll toss out a few numbers just for perspective. Maybe FA can tell us what his actual numbers are. Also, what is the management plan, as that will change the outcome a lot. If it goes 4.75 points, is the stop still 10 points below entry? How, if at all, is the stop moved? Without knowing this, it is hard to even come up with rough estimates.

Trading one contract (which is not what FA appears to be showing here, but I'll show this for initial perspective) with a 2 point target and a 10 point stop the break even point is at just over 83% winners. You need to hit more than that to make any profit (excluding slippage and commissions).

If you hit the second target half the time you hit the first one, and didn't move the stop so took the full hit on the other half, here's how that looks. One trade you make 7 (2 + 5) and the next trade you make 2 and lose 10, or net lose 8. Over every two trades you lose 1, so the setup would be net negative no matter what you did.

Let's say you hit the second target 80% of the time you hit the first target. You get one 2 and -10 and four 7's, for a total of 20 on five trades (each trade is 2 contracts), or 4 per trade average, which is 2 per contract. So, with a loss of 10 and a winner of 2 (on average), the break even point is just over 83% winners. To break even here, ignoring slippage and commissions you'd need to have the second target hit 80% of the time the first one is hit, and hit the first target 83% of the time just to break even.

Of course many other intermediate variations of percentages can be calculated. I'd love to know what FA's numbers are, and if he will provide them I'd be happy to crunch those numbers. Overall, I know I could never hit the numbers needed to make this work for me. I'd be curious to know if others can. FA, do you have some numbers we can look at? And more info on management?

Everyone feel free to check my numbers, as I am trying to watch the market and slap this post together real fast.

The really curious thing here, shown well by how I chose my examples, is that unless you are over 80% in hitting the second target once the first is hit, there is no benefit to waiting for the second target, even though it is 2.5 times the size of the first target as far as profit. Anything less than 80% and you'd be better to just take it all at the first target. Very curious result, huh?

BUY FTSE 5205.00 TP1 5215.00 TP2 5230.00 SL 5180.00
SELL FTSE 5064.00 TP1 5054.00 TP2 5039.00 SL 5089.00
BUY DAX 5842.00 TP1 5867.00 TP2 5892.00 SL 5792.00
SELL DAX 5623.00 TP1 5598.00 TP2 5573.00 SL 5673.00

NO TRADES TODAY
NOTHING HIT THE ENTRIES

THESE ARE HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES. % VARIES FROM MONTH TO MONTH. REASON WE OFFER TP1 IS THAT IT IS HIGHER THAN 85% PROBABLITY TRADE. WE ALSO ENCOURAGE ACTIVE AND EXPERIENCED TRADERS TO USE OUR ENTRIES AND STOPS AND MONITOR, IF THEY CHOOSE TO GO FOR HIGHER TARGETS. AS MOST EXPERIENCED TRADERS KNOW R/R IS A CONCEPT OF THE PAST.IT IS ALL ABOUT HIGH PROBABLITY. I'D RATHER TRADE THEN WRITE NOVELS O/N FORUMS.

Wow, I'm not going to touch a post like that, written in all caps, too. With a break even at over 83%, 85+% winners isn't going to work for me. I'll politely drop out here, as I learned my lesson over in the 'you can't trade and make money' topic. I'll leave it to PT, Phant, Charter Joe, or whoever else wants to take this up. At least I learned something new, though, as an experienced trader with about 32,000 screen hours under my belt I had no idea reward/risk was a thing of the past. Not to mention that as a trend trader, even though 30%-50% winners can be quite profitable (break even on a 5 to 1 reward/risk setup is just under 17% winners, any higher percentage than that and it's profitable), my low percentage approach is outmoded nowadays. I need to get up to speed with modern times here...

Trades for September 30th:

SP BUY 1062.00 TP11064.00 TP21067.00 SL 1052.00
SP SELL 1049.00 TP1 1047.00 TP2 1044.00 SL 1059.00
DOW BUY 9735.00 TP1 9745.00 TP2 9760.00 SL 9710.00
DOW SELL 9614.00 TP1 9604.00 TP2 9589.00 SL 9639.00
NQ BUY 1727.00 TP1 1729.00 TP2 1732.00 SL 1717.00
NQSELL 1701.00 TP1 1699.00 TP2 1696.00 SL 1711.00

BUY DAX 5751.00 TP1 5776.00 TP2 5801.00 SL 5701.00
SELL DAX 5676.00 TP1 5651.00 TP2 5626.00 SL 5726.00

He's been posting his market calls across multiple forums ... all without any explanation. Noticed one site had some or all of 'em deleted or removed it looked like. He continued to post on another forum up through 10-29-09. As for here ... even when asked, he didn't have an explanation nor evidently a sense of humor either.