thetmpproject.com- careful

Hello traders,
This is my first post, and it is just information. Use it as you wish.

I joined a website called thetmpproject.com a month ago. They claim to be able to generate forecasts of market action in the US stock markets. While some of their data is quite interesting and useful, I think it should be realised that not everything on their site is as good as it seems. They certainly "Gild the Lilly" in selling their services, but when you really dig into the data their results are not as good as they promote. Lets cut to the chase...

They have a service called the TMP Daily Dow, where they claim to have an 86.21% accuracy on calling whether the Dow will close up or down the next day. Well when you look at the results, the following dishonesties show up: Firstly if they have a "No Trade" day, which is approx 12% of the time, that is classified as a "win", when it is actually a no trade and should not be included as an accurate prediction. Secondly, they have a +/- 0.1% factor on their predictions. This means that if they say the market will close up tomorrow, but it is actually down by 6 points, again it is included as a win for their statistics. I took a sample of their results from the last 320 trading days, and found that when you strip out No trade days and days where the +/- 0.1% came into effect their actual results were 58% accuracy. Not the advertised 80%+. I chose the last year or so of results because it appears the website has been registered for the last year so I assume that these results are "live". The remaining ten years or so of results are all backtested results I presume.

Another product is the End of Day Dow forecast. This gives the direction of the market for the final hour of trading each day- either up or down. This was released about a month ago with much fanfare as having an over 93% accuracy rate over the past ten years. It uses the same dishonest reporting methods as listed above. It has only been live for the past month, so to be fair it could have just been a bad month (the worst month in its history by far), but its live accuracy rate for the month of May was actually 38.5% which is a far cry from the promoted 93%.

I am not saying there is no value in their website, there are a lot of articles and I haven't had a chance to read them all yet and I have only been watching for a month. But since there is no other objective information on the internet about this crew, I thought I should post it so people can get another opinion.

Regards,
David.