End of day Breakout.

Rules are simple take the range of 15:00-15:29 and go long above or short below 2.5 stop loss and 2.5 profit objective. I have traded this strategy for the last 20 days (not counting today) and have netted +$750 per contract. Not going to get rich off one contract but multiple cons are only a click away. I was wondering if anyone sees any common treats in the winners on this setup. One thing I was working with was doubling up on losers that is most losing streaks last for 3 trades or 3 days. So starting with 1 we lose on that trade, the next setup (the very next trading day) we trade 2 thats a loser as well so the next day we trade 4 cons thats a loser as well. the 4th day is a winner with 8 contracts making back all that was lost in one day instead of 3winners. With this money mang. changed the bottom line (before comm.) from +$750 to +$1500 assuming we start with only one contract and a max draw down of only -$800






*traders should due diligence there is no holy grail

Charter Joe
Interesting thoughts. Are you taking a position in both directions? Or going with the overall trend for that time frame.
ie. Friday 25/5. 892.75 was the close of the 15:00 candle and the close of the 15:29 was 890.25. I guess that you would be going short so a 2.5 target/stop from 890.25 would be placed. 15:38 rose to 892.75 which was 2.5 pts from entry. Therefore a stop was executed. Have I got this right?
Not sure whether you would have taken a trade on Thursday. The 2 time slots were within a tick.
Sorry if I haven't understood your initial plan.
Regards

vast, i believe Joe meant that you take the entire range (hi to lo) of 15:00-15:29. if it goes above the hi you go long and if it goes below the lo you go short. so the range for friday was 895.50 to 889.50. the candle at 14:47 went below the lo so i guess a short was initiated at 889.25 and the 2.5 profit target was met before the close.

Joe, i just started trading your mini I.B. based wirechild's rules and am interested to see on how it performs. however, on this strategy i do not seem to get the same results as you when i backtest the last 20 trading days (not including today). i take the 15:00-15:29 range and buy 1 tick above the high or short 1 tick below the low. based on that my backtest shows a loss of 2.5 for your trading period compared to your gain of 15 points. what am i doing wrong here?

Sudie,

You are correct I was wrong to say 750 for the past 20 days I came up with 11 winners and 9 losers and one NT. The figures I used were actually results I was off in my math. I will show how I took a near 50% system and made it a winner by dbl on losers.

It was late I said I netted 750 a contract and it was 1500 a contract for the last 20 trading days

(per contract starting at 1 con)

4/27 +2.5 +$125 +125
4/28 +2.5 +$125 +250
4/29 +2.5 +125 +375
4/30 -2.5 -125 +250
5/1 -2.5 -250 0
5/4 -2.5 -500 -500
5/5 +2.5 +1000 +500
5/6 +2.5 +125 +625
5/7 -2.5 -125 +500
5/8 -2.5 -250 +250
5/11 +2.5 +500 +750
5/12 +2.5 +125 +875
5/13 No trade taken
5/14 +2.5 +125 +1000
5/15 -2.5 -125 +875
5/18 -2.5 -250 +625
5/19 +2.5 +500 +1125
5/20 +2.5 +125 +1250
5/21 +2.5 +125 +1375
5/22 +2.5 +125 +1500 (20 days at the time of the first post, bad math I thought it was +750 without doubling up) the running total from 4/28 now is +1125 and trading 4 cons tomorrow and when this losing cycle is over I'll start with 4 cons instead of one, which should get the juices and the money flowing.

hey Joe, thanks for clearing some of it up for me, but I guess i'm still not getting the same results as far as winners and losers. take 5/20 where you said you had a gain of +2.5. following your rules, the lo of the 15:00-15:29 was established at 15:25 with a lo of 903.00. then that lo was broken at 15:31 where i guess a short was initiated at 902.75. however it seems you should have been stopped out for a 2.5 loss at 15:39 since the high there was 905.75. i'm using optionsXpress for my data because i trade from work. any clarification on this discrepency would be much appreciated as i like your systems and hope to incorporate them into my trading.

Its late I'll look into it tomorrow, good for you back testing thats more than most do. Ninjatrader.com has good data and its free. I don't think I am going to pursue this much farther as it isn't doing as good as I thought originally. Thou with good money mang success can be achieved as with all systems. This one dosn't do much better than a coin toss, which makes me sad because I have yet to find a late afternoon "breakout system" that works well. I do better trading MACD and $TICK div counter trend in the late afternoon anyways.