AIG

I posted this in my forum and people seemed to think it was funny, so I'll post it here:

So, here's a fun calculation. AIG lost what this last quarter, just over $61 billion, the largest one quarter loss of any publically traded company in history, anywhere on earth. So, I mentioned to my better half I couldn't get rid of $61 billion in one quarter if I had a gasoline truck and a crate of matches. She said just dump it out the window. So, I decided to calculate how long that would take. I know, dump it by the boxload. We'll get to that. If I threw out a $100 bill once per second, and I never ate, slept, or used the bathroom, how long would it take me to get rid of that $61 billion? Just about twenty years. Twenty years!

Let's do it by the boxload. That would work, it turns out. You only have to move about, give or take, eighty of those $100 bills per second to do it in a quarter. Let's get practical. Let's say you are really strong, with good endurance. You work eight hours a day, five days a week. You can lift a box, move it to the window, shove it out, pause to rest a few seconds, and start again. Assuming anyone could keep this up eight hours a day, you could do a box say every ten seconds. So, how many bills per box to wrap this up in one quarter? You'd need about $320K per box, or 3,200 bills. That's actually quite feasible. That's only 32 stacks of 100 in each stack, with the nice little bands around them.

Let's see, though, fair is fair, I could get more than 32 stacks in a box and lift it, but on the other hand, I should have to put them in the box myself, it isn't fair to have an assistant load up for me, or what's the point of this exercise (I know, there is no real point, but I'm a math geek, so this is actually fun for me). So, I say it's a wash, the time it takes me to load up, I can only do the 32 stacks. I could do more, if I could lift it over and over eight hours a day without a break, but it wouldn't increase the efficiency that much.

So, my conclusion? If I worked full time throwing out boxes of $100 bills non-stop for an entire quarter, I could, in fact, lose that $61 billion. Hence, I guess it isn't so surprising they could lose all that. Now, imagine they had teams of people throwing out that money. See, it may actually be that they were quite conservative, and should be rewarded for not losing a lot more. That's my viewpoint. Let's reward them with a big party paid for by us taxpayers :-)

Very nice post. How appropoi to the cause of the congress...they keep doing the same old nonsense...and all the serfs believe it.

And Obama and Co are still bailing out businesses and Wall Street?? Who cares about Wall Street..its not the economy!!!

Let them go to zero....pity your stocks go to zero..but then again you should know a share is paper...Foolish paper!!! Toilet paper, Tulip Bulb...like in Holland in 17 century.

The only way the country is going to get back on its feet is bailout the people not Wall Street and Business.

The question I ask: AIG, the biggest or one of the biggest insurers, with all the best academics and MBA's from business schools, all the algorithms, savants, best of the educated fools...and they go on to lose $61 Billion!!!

There is a blue collar worker who became one of the best traders in the world and he probably tried to get on Wall Street and the like and they made him feel like zero...and these educated fools go on to bankrupct America and cause a Depression!!

I mentioned about 'trader god,' best trader ( 2006) I had 1 month taking calls albeit Dec 06...2,500%..I saw his record...the best of the lot and he had no Harvard degree.

Remember, the following people below and you will NEVER lose MONEY!!!!!!

Let me preface and state, most of my buddies are MBA's, CA's etc and they no ****...in parties I can make them feel so small, my wife comes to me and tells me to shut up. They cannot even read a chart!!!!

MBA= Master of Buffonery and A**
CPA= Certified Pratical A**
CTA= Certified Technical A**

CA= Certified A** ( Canada)
CGA/CMA= Certified general and management A**

CFA= Chartered Financial A**

FA= not financial advisor..but financial A..well you get it.

Don't read Futures, Stocks and Commodities etc magazines...they all BS.

I hope I did not forget anyone.... I don't want people getting their advice...hehe

Now if YOU WANT TO MAKE ANY MONEY TRADING OR INVESTING...DO NOT LISTEN TO ANY OF THESE PEOPLE ABOVE!!!! You don't need the commercial magazines either.

Their is only 1 rule...above__ % go long, below go short. And I worked in a factory!!! Oh yes, I did go to University as well but never did my CA...saw no VALUE in that BS.

I am long big time OJ!!! Heating oil...watching!!. Beans and Corn...waiting for the run up....the fall is even going to be better!! Maybe I should ask AIG if they need my services...I'm not greedy...then again..that is probably a prerequiste!!

Toen MF

ps HollyWood...if only HOLLY COULD!!! RE......down, down, down

quote:

---

Originally posted by pips2007


I am long big time OJ!!! Heating oil...watching!!. Beans and Corn...waiting for the run up....the fall is even going to be better!! Maybe I should ask AIG if they need my services...I'm not greedy...then again..that is probably a prerequiste!!

Toen MF

ps HollyWood...if only HOLLY COULD!!! RE......down, down, down

---

If we are going down the tubes like you say then buying OJ, heating oil, corn, beans is as dumb as buying stocks. These markets go up BEFORE the market turns south just like they did in late 05-07 and they all go down together hence deflation (Commodities going down), hence depression.....So the only way for you to win is the market to recover. You should study what happened to those markets in 29-35, 72-24, 80-82, 87..and 2000

You may be right Charter Joe, But

Why is the US dollar going UP when the economy, housing, Wall Street is going down.

When last time I checked...the US dollar was going up in 1996-2000 in the parabolic dot com run up... when the stock mkt was making a high.

The US has over 60 Trillion dollars in debt or unfunded liabitlity...your dollar should be worse than the Haitian currency..but YOU have the GUN...so everybody is scared.

Personally, I like American people..but I would like to tell you to FO...as your government and country are responsible for the debacles we are facing, but your dollar is going up

Your country is broke beyond belief, your government, people, states, etc ar so broke its not funny and your currency is going up!!! This does not make any sense...you guys are broke and everbody wants your currency???

Why?? So now the mkt is back to 1997 levels...dropped over 50% and your dollar is up?? Back in 1997 your dollar was going up when the stock mkt was up!!

You may be looking at time frames...but they sure aren't the ones I'm looking at.

So all that is rationale to you...is not to me...and I make good money. I know the GBP will make a low this year and have a high in 2011 and 2018/19...I just know. You may disagree..but I know...

I know OJ will have a good chance to go up by 2011 and so will heating oil etc. You probably think short term. Pity we listened to the globalization BS...you told us and the rest of the world.

I think lateral.

Commodities have a correlation to the stock mkt mostly on the way down...but not on the WAY UP!!....check the 70's period...commodities blew on by, up, up and away.....stocks were in a trading range...basically went nowhere.

The point is...its like insurance...you pay car insurance and life insurance and you never make a claim. But you have it. You don't complain when you car insurance expires worthless for $1,500-3,000+ per year!!!

My call and put options may expire worthless...but went it hits...I may big,big,big money. You probably never tried it....sell high buy low. Buy low sell high. OJ, you checked a monthly chart????

America...is bankrupct..and the dollar and gold is going up. I thought gold goes up and the dollar goes down???

If you traded beans and corn you should know the TIME lines. I know both will be making lower lows later this year....I just know...like my ES and YM predictions....back 5 months ago all come correct. Oh yes, I may be wrong...but now its only the time frame, not the price.

Thanks for the input...but I'll trade my way and win....

For those who are interested.

OJ as I mentioned. Jan 1, 1977 low 37.40 and May 1, 2004 54.20 and recent low of 64.60. You have the 2 lower points....not going to zero. Where will it be in 2011. 2007-2009 down......

Buy low sell high.

If I was trading for a big fund, I would make multi, multi millions on this one trade. There are many more trades.

Stupid news is on TV and reports. Charts don't lie.