The Unfinished Game


Two traders, Warren and George, sit in a bar discussing probabilities. They decide to bet $1,000 on who will win the best of 5 coin tosses. For each flip of the coin Warren will win if it comes up heads and George will win if it comes up tails.

After 3 coin tosses Warren is ahead with 2 heads to George's 1 tail when the bar runs out of beer and they decide to abandon the game. What is the fairest way to divide up the pot?

(As a trader, you should be able to work out the probability of the each of these traders winning if they continued to play the game.)
  • 1
  • culsu
  • 2-Jan-2009 at 9:18 PM
  • Rep: 50
  • Posts: 48
I'd suggest they slip the bartender $200 out of the pot to go in back and fetch more beer, then carry on with the two remaining tosses for $800.

George's chances of pulling ahead are 25%, not remarkably good but still possible. $750 to Warren and $250 for George sounds fair, but George has to leave the tip.
  • 0
  • lordalfa
  • 3-Jan-2009 at 11:03 AM
  • Rep: 140
  • Posts: 264
Like my Finnish boss use to say at the bar. Are we here to talk or drink beer? LOL!

I always drive him home. LOL!
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