14 July 2005 (Thursday)

Session Start: Thu Jul 14 08:22:05 2005
Session Ident: #t1
[09:25:01] <guy> 5 minutes to open
[09:25:17] <guy> gm and gl everyone
[09:25:55] <mikee> gm guy, all
[09:26:10] <guy> about a +4 gap on ER2 now
[09:27:09] <mikee> yest. signal was correct and i exited es from yest. close
[09:27:35] <mikee> target still 1248 on SPX and 1252.5 on ES
[09:27:53] <guy> nice mikee
[09:28:13] <guy> eSignal file share problems mean that I can't post charts atm
[09:28:19] <mikee> tks
[09:28:43] <mikee> interm target 1236ish
[09:29:01] <guy> 1 minute to open
[09:32:56] <mikee> fib. turn point o nmy 60min chart is 11-11:30 cst
[09:37:52] <mikee> interm reached
[09:38:22] <guy> nice mikee
[09:38:41] <guy> k-line is bullish here - has been for a few minutes now
[09:38:50] <mikee> don't see any sign. pullbacks till 10 cst
[09:39:37] <guy> i can believe that mikee - my stuff says strong up atm
[09:40:06] <mikee> right, so i could hold my es :)
[09:40:29] <mikee> 80% certain we hit 1252.5
[09:40:49] <mikee> may be not today
[09:41:11] <guy> let's see if we get buying in this dip...
[09:41:17] <mikee> signal was like i see sometimes before FOMC
[09:42:30] <mikee> re AB, if we got pullback to 675 it's buy
[09:42:49] <guy> the scenario that i see is like that chart that i put up that shows that all short positions (i.e. half the contracts in the market) are losing money
[09:43:21] <mikee> YM target 10615-10617

[09:44:11] <guy> Buys ER2 @ 675.1

[09:44:11] <mikee> on downside
[09:44:22] <mikee> little lower
[09:44:34] <mikee> 674.9 is buy
[09:45:35] <mikee> target 675.3 and 676

[09:49:57] <guy> Exited all Long ER2 at 674.1 --> - 1

[09:52:13] <mikee> long er
[09:52:25] <mikee> target 675
[09:52:29] <guy> i'm back in at 73.5
[09:53:26] <mikee> stop b/e
[09:53:42] <mikee> downside target 672.7
[09:54:21] <guy> same b/e stop
[09:54:35] <mikee> which is 50%
[09:57:26] <mikee> scratch
[09:57:37] <mikee> 672.7 target
[09:57:37] <guy> flat
[09:58:08] <mikee> long at
[09:58:39] <mikee> 671.7 is next downside
[09:59:00] <mikee> scratch again (-.1)
[09:59:38] <mikee> long again
[10:00:03] <mikee> next 671.1
[10:00:47] <mikee> stop 671.5
[10:01:05] <mikee> target 673.2
[10:01:18] <mikee> stop b/e
[10:01:48] <mikee> +1 half
[10:04:47] <mikee> scratch rest
[10:05:26] <mikee> done for now since i've had +6.5 es from yestrday
[10:05:34] <mikee> bbl
[10:20:40] <mikee> 670.46 was .786,- last fib.down, so if it's low and we don't go any down, we may go long and i am
[10:21:07] <guy> k
[10:21:27] <mikee> target 672.8, 673.5
[10:21:55] <fspeculator> guy, are you set for the ER short?
[10:22:21] <guy> what's the signal fspeculator
[10:22:22] <guy> ?
[10:22:31] <fspeculator> singles, stil lunconfirmed?
[10:22:46] <fspeculator> 673.8
[10:24:11] <mikee> 672.7-672.8 fib. 2 levels
[10:24:54] <guy> 673.8 singles in ER2? from when?
[10:25:07] <fspeculator> scratch that :-) my mistake
[10:32:33] <mikee> target hit - out
[10:33:05] <mikee> now long over 672.9
[10:33:22] <mikee> same 2 levels above 673.5-673.6
[10:34:42] <guy> Innerworth: They Say It Couldn't Be Done
[10:36:14] <mikee> 671.4 could long
[10:39:56] <guy> 671.4 is VAH
[10:40:10] <guy> 670.5 = LOD which is IBL
[10:40:21] <guy> below this we see RE to the downside
[10:45:37] <fspeculator> it looks like gap and crap dofar
[10:48:01] <fspeculator> it's incredible how ER moves and the rest is dead
[10:48:13] <guy> it certainly is
[10:51:46] <tuna> er been weaker last few days it seems
[10:52:00] <fspeculator> ER had a non stop runup
[10:52:06] <fspeculator> and is at all time highs
[10:52:20] <guy> true - ER2 had record highs while ES way off records
[10:52:35] <guy> ER2 has RE down now while ES not
[10:52:43] <tuna> profiles looked weaker to me
[10:52:54] <fspeculator> basically they recreated the bubbles of 2000, in smallvaps and RE
[10:52:55] <guy> VAL in ER2 appears to be current support line
[10:53:12] <guy> they?
[10:53:28] <fspeculator> wallstreet/fed/policymakers
[10:53:42] <fspeculator> negative real interest rates have these effects
[10:53:42] <tuna> its a conspiracy guy
[10:53:54] <tuna> get with it mate
[10:53:55] <guy> ah... conspiracy
[10:54:10] <fspeculator> i don't mind.
[10:54:22] <guy> just kidding fspeculator
[10:54:39] <fspeculator> i was telling ppt in the other room (emini)
[10:54:44] <fspeculator> read fed minutes from 2002
[10:54:56] <fspeculator> they were discussing "unconventional" measures
[10:55:05] <fspeculator> to buy stocks (like BOJ does)
[10:55:14] <fspeculator> i'm pretty sure they did
[10:56:52] <tuna> i'm pretty sure about something
[10:56:58] <fspeculator> in 5yr the full minutes will be released
[10:57:16] <guy> 5yr from today or then?
[10:57:28] <fspeculator> i think from today, but could be wrong
[10:59:07] <fspeculator> nothing uncommon
[10:59:13] <fspeculator> here in greece they did it as well
[11:00:05] <tuna> i need a rotation here
[11:00:48] <tuna> dow wont help me out
[11:01:41] <fspeculator> how much is ER margin?
[11:03:17] <tuna> depends on broker really
[11:04:09] <tuna> go dow
[11:05:28] <tuna> jeez
[11:12:54] <fspeculator> today is opex week
[11:13:04] <fspeculator> but i sensed a lot of strain in the system
[11:13:13] <fspeculator> and a trend down wouldn't suprise me at all
[11:13:31] <fspeculator> today pumped huge
[11:13:40] <fspeculator> must be something going on behjind the scenes
[11:13:48] <fspeculator> for the last 2mo or so
[11:14:03] <guy> i think margin for day trading is $500 at most brokers
[11:16:45] <fspeculator> must be over 3k overnight
[11:16:54] <fspeculator> looking at my IB stats
[11:17:33] <tuna> cme sets those margins
[11:17:33] <fspeculator> (i never watch margin bec i've enough funds, but my margin jumped when i opened the ER trade)
[11:17:56] <fspeculator> y, CME has the highest margins :-( instead of SPAN
[11:18:04] <fspeculator> one more reason people should use eurexus
[11:18:26] <fspeculator> cbot has friendly margins
[11:19:33] <guy> what is ER2 symbol on eurexus for esignal?
[11:19:57] <fspeculator> just chart AB on esignal, and trade WR2 in IB
[11:20:23] <fspeculator> at least it's what i do
[11:21:14] <guy> have you already traded WR2 fspeculator?
[11:22:41] <fspeculator> some weeks ago
[11:22:58] <fspeculator> i haven't installed WR2 into ninja yet
[11:24:19] <fspeculator> btw you can call me fs, it's shorter :-)
[11:25:10] <guy> fspeculator - i've discovered that neat trick on mirc to type first couple of letters of anyone's nick and then press tab to finish it off
[11:25:31] <fspeculator> hahaha, y, it works guy
[11:25:35] <fspeculator> DoublePanic
[11:25:40] <fspeculator> nice
[11:26:10] <fspeculator> i have a little ER short, which i hope to exit 664
[11:26:18] <fspeculator> 2x ib and old time signles
[11:26:18] <guy> good luck
[11:26:45] <fspeculator> thx
[11:27:56] <tuna> re dowm spoos
[11:37:31] <guy> we have an ER2 single at 670.4
[11:38:57] <guy> okay: symbol for ER2 on eurexus on esignal is: WR2 U5-EUS
[12:03:37] <mikee> back. i see YM target almost hit
[12:03:42] <mikee> [08:43] <mikee> YM target 10615-10617
[12:05:06] <mikee> es target hit also
[12:05:11] <mikee> [09:48] <mikee> es target 1229
[12:12:46] <fspeculator> closed ER short here
[12:12:55] <fspeculator> 666.8
[12:13:29] <fspeculator> just in case ER follows the others (YM,ES)
[12:14:10] <fspeculator> here is singles right(ER)?
[12:14:14] <fspeculator> 667.90
[13:04:34] <guy> ER2 has another single at 667.9
[13:24:07] <guy> Single Print strategy is short from 667.8 at 13:15
[13:25:54] <tuna> u see thos bids guy
[13:25:56] <tuna> ?
[13:26:15] <tuna> 407 at 668.0
[13:26:19] <guy> i wasn't watching but am now
[13:26:24] <guy> i see still 277 there
[13:26:37] <tuna> 407 was hi that i saw
[13:27:05] <guy> was it the inside bid at the time?
[13:27:18] <fspeculator> we're back to yesterday's range
[13:27:21] <fspeculator> opex week
[13:27:36] <fspeculator> and fed pu,mped 23bn today
[13:27:48] <mptrading> on ZB there was a single print trade as well Short at 116-12
[13:28:01] <tuna> not when i was looking guy
[13:28:17] <guy> k
[13:28:22] <mptrading> zn was also another one at same time 111-235
[13:28:37] <guy> the only reason that i ask is that you can look at it later on esignals T&S if it was the inside bid
[13:28:44] <fspeculator> mpt how?
[13:28:57] <mptrading> how what ?
[13:29:00] <fspeculator> ZB traded down to 11609 during first 15min
[13:29:01] <mptrading> bracket D
[13:29:09] <mptrading> 4 th letter
[13:30:52] <fspeculator>
[13:31:16] <fspeculator> esignal alignment is bogus, but no single that i can see
[13:32:24] <mptrading> it is there
[13:32:34] <mptrading> look
[13:32:42] <fspeculator> on *my* chart?
[13:32:47] <mptrading> B bracket in your chart
[13:33:00] <mptrading> from A to B
[13:33:41] <mptrading> will post a chrt
[13:33:43] <mptrading> 1 minute
[13:34:16] <fspeculator> guy do you see it?
[13:35:38] <mptrading>
[13:40:04] <mptrading> do you see that as a single as well?
[13:43:51] <fspeculator> mpt thx, i was away for a sec
[13:44:10] <fspeculator> it's not a single strictly defined afaik
[13:44:29] <fspeculator> btw, the new US SEC chief has gold stocks
[13:44:48] <tuna> lol

[13:44:54] <mptrading> I discussed this many times with lizacb and we agreed that this was a good setup single entry formed during the day
[13:44:54] <fspeculator> Cox has a penchant for gold stocks, according to his disclosure statement. He holds shares in Newmont Mining Corp. valued at $250,001 to $500,000 and shares in AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. valued at $100,001 to $250,000.
[13:45:24] <mptrading> those guyscannot held many instruments
[13:45:39] <mptrading> like stocks, so they have fewer instruments to invest
[13:46:44] <fspeculator> sure, i meant to say he's a stealth goldbug :-)
[13:47:00] <mptrading> another day I saw a film that was financed and produced by Allan Greespan
[13:47:40] <tuna> yentel?
[13:47:53] <mptrading> Bicicles Diary
[13:48:12] <mptrading> a film that tell the youth life of che guevara
[13:49:09] <tuna> old greenie a film maker lol
[13:49:10] <guy> Motorcycle Diaries
[13:49:18] <mptrading> yeap
[13:49:21] <guy> have you read the book?
[13:49:43] <mptrading> the film director was a brazilian, no I have not read the book
[13:50:12] <tuna> does it have a happy ending?
[13:50:27] <mptrading> che was shot by the CIA
[13:50:33] <mptrading> not on the film of course
[13:50:51] <tuna> yes i was jokeing
[13:51:12] <mptrading> the other guy is still alive and lives in Cuba as well
[13:51:19] <guy> :)
[13:51:25] <guy> i was just looking at the chart
[13:51:25] <tuna> lol
[13:51:46] <guy> the bond charts - from what i could see i would say that it was a single print in the bonds
[13:52:10] <mptrading> for me as well.
[13:52:27] <guy> From what i remember the motorcycles diaries were written by Che's old man and he took a lot of the info from postcards that che sent back to him while he was traveling
[13:52:48] <guy> che was from argentina right?
[13:52:56] <mptrading> born there
[13:53:07] <mptrading> after he moved to cuba
[13:53:10] <guy> do you drink yerba mate mptrading?
[13:53:20] <mptrading> erva mate !
[13:53:23] <mptrading> nope
[13:53:29] <mptrading> only people on the south do
[13:53:35] <mptrading> I drink caipirinha
[13:53:36] <guy> have you tried it?
[13:53:39] <fspeculator> guy look again
[13:53:40] <mptrading> he he !
[13:54:01] <fspeculator> at the chart, bec if that's a single, we get 10 singles everyday
[13:54:32] <guy> unfortunately i'm not enabled for bonds so can only go on the charts that you show me
[13:54:44] <fspeculator>
[13:54:46] <guy> why don't you format it like a normal MP chart and then it should be obvious?
[13:54:50] <mptrading> the chart I posted is correct
[13:55:00] <mptrading> he is asking about the setup
[13:55:13] <guy> mptrading: post again with the bell curve - i.e. collapse the letters
[13:55:16] <fspeculator> we have a print in "d" and "g", before the supposed short in "j"
[13:55:17] <guy> remove the splits
[13:55:32] <fspeculator> it's easier for you, with splits on
[13:56:27] <fspeculator> we had singles (as i know them) last 2 days in ZN
[13:56:35] <fspeculator> but not today, afaik
[13:56:59] <mptrading> you mean unfilled singles
[13:57:08] <guy> correct mptrading
[13:57:25] <fspeculator> well, they filled later in the same day
[13:57:31] <mptrading> these were filled and non-exiatant as of now when letter j touched the formation
[13:57:32] <guy> if one of you will post a propper MP chart then we could see if they were singles
[13:57:54] <fspeculator>
[13:58:04] <fspeculator> same as mpt's chart, collapsed
[13:58:12] <guy> Single Print takes off +2 on 1 contract at 665.8
[13:58:55] <guy> then i agree with fspeculator that there were no singles
[13:59:42] <guy> i thought that bonds started in the B bracket?
[14:00:03] <guy> Single Print strategy moves stop to b/e
[14:00:04] <fspeculator> if you ask me
[14:00:11] <fspeculator> i have reconfigured all my charts
[14:00:21] <fspeculator> to start with y,z IB
[14:00:24] <mptrading> they can start at any bracket, depends on the software
[14:00:28] <fspeculator> regardless of times
[14:00:48] <fspeculator> so it's easier for me to spot IB on chart
[14:00:54] <fspeculator> try it, you may like it
[14:01:06] <guy> why do you start them with y,z ?
[14:01:34] <fspeculator> just for eeasier visual
[14:01:41] <fspeculator> small letters etc
[14:02:27] <fspeculator> i'm glad i traded ER today, YM was going nowhere
[14:06:05] <guy> nice trading on those singles tuna
[14:06:39] <tuna> thx
[14:06:44] <tuna> guy
[14:07:08] <tuna> that 407 bid sealed the deal
[14:07:12] <guy> :)
[14:07:21] <guy> that's what kept me out of it
[14:07:31] <tuna> ?
[14:07:43] <guy> are you going to use DIBL at 664.4 as one of your targets?
[14:08:09] <tuna> yeah or there abouts
[14:08:29] <guy> the reason I stayed out is that the bid wasn't pulled (the 277 bid) when we hit that price
[14:08:39] <guy> which is what usually happens with fake bids
[14:08:49] <tuna> all fakers
[14:08:52] <tuna> imo
[14:14:04] <fspeculator> bonds+stocks trade is if liquidity is tight
[14:14:10] <fspeculator> both near LOD
[14:15:26] <fspeculator> guys you noticed the post about the arbs in YM
[14:15:46] <fspeculator> 2 weeks ago, the fiasco with the 150pt gap-drop in YM?
[14:16:02] <tuna> didnt see it
[14:16:30] <fspeculator> http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=52214&goto=newpost
[14:28:45] <fspeculator> hm, nice trend day in ER
[14:29:03] <fspeculator> this should be a buy here, per 2x ib
[14:29:12] <fspeculator> or cover, if i held sofar
[14:29:53] <fspeculator> considering the opex tendency to be bullish
[14:30:01] <guy> Oil Futures closed
[14:30:02] <fspeculator> (not carved in stone, but you know...)
[14:35:43] <fspeculator> guy will you take the long
[14:47:54] <guy> not atm fspeculator - conflicting signals
[14:48:42] <fspeculator> well you remember
[14:48:49] <fspeculator> it's good on the first time down
[14:48:53] <fspeculator> next time it's so-so
[14:49:05] <fspeculator> so, if it takes off now, it'll be ok
[14:49:47] <guy> is this what happened last opex?
[14:50:02] <fspeculator> i didn't follow ER
[14:50:36] <fspeculator> i think it merits some further analysis, although i doubt it'd produce any results
[14:50:58] <fspeculator> in our position, being small traders, our best bet would be short-term
[14:54:12] <guy> This might be the first time that the Single Print strategy goes to a full winner in 1.5 months...
[15:00:01] <guy> Bond Pit closed (electronic Bond open until 16:00 ET)
[15:05:20] <guy> fspeculator: i'm getting short signals now so my take is that we aren't going to get a rally into the close
[15:11:11] <fspeculator> i took it and now it';s b/e 663,8
[15:11:22] <fspeculator> i'll let it ride for a while
[15:12:51] <fspeculator> ideally to singles 670
[15:21:28] <mikee> back. signal is down
[15:28:34] <fspeculator> took off some 666.6
[15:28:44] <fspeculator> as tribute to the mighty one
[15:28:51] <fspeculator> :-))))))
[15:29:45] <fspeculator> mikee, this signal you talk about
[15:29:51] <fspeculator> what is it derived from?
[15:29:59] <fspeculator> price action or otherwise?
[15:30:36] <guy> good trading there fspeculator
[15:30:42] <fspeculator> dumb luck
[15:30:53] <fspeculator> #1 factor always :-)
[15:31:51] <mikee> based on bonds/yield close fspec
[15:36:20] <mikee> 667.3 is .618 (669.4-663.7)
[15:36:50] <mikee> if break it next up 668.2-668.5
[15:37:11] <fspeculator> mikee you mean the old 15:00 signal of bonds ?
[15:37:48] <mikee> what do u mean "old"?
[15:38:03] <fspeculator> i've read people used it in the 1990s
[15:38:53] <fspeculator> i don't know how much this correlation and cause/effect remains nowadays
[15:38:54] <mikee> can you explain?
[15:39:28] <fspeculator> i think the premise is that stocks move counter to the move they did prior to bonds close
[15:39:41] <fspeculator> for the first quarter after close and sometimes longer
[15:40:09] <mikee> may be in combination
[15:40:55] <fspeculator> but you're talking roughly same thing
[15:40:59] <fspeculator> not yield curve thing etc
[15:41:25] <fspeculator> anyway, in opex week i think it takes precedence
[15:43:02] <fspeculator> are they waiting for margin cutoff time to ramp it???
[15:43:48] <tuna> 3;42?
[15:43:54] <fspeculator> 15:45
[15:44:45] <tuna> i though IB starts liqidating around 3;42
[15:44:58] <fspeculator> never had the privilege to find out
[15:45:14] <fspeculator> altough they did liquidate my gold/silver positions on occasion
[15:45:33] <tuna> maybe thats on fridays
[15:45:37] <fspeculator> as IB requires rollover several days before other brokers and i got it wrong
[15:45:54] <tuna> someone said that time once
[15:46:06] <mikee> i've found 3:47 tuna
[15:46:21] <tuna> ahhh yes
[15:46:33] <tuna> 3;47
[15:51:02] <guy> well if anything the volume dropped off at 3:47...
[15:52:08] <tuna> someone told me IB starts liquidating at that time
[15:52:29] <tuna> dunno for sure
[15:56:44] <guy> they probably vary it to stop people from trying to anticipate and take advantage of their moves
[15:57:24] <guy> i used to work for a currency fund manager and we did that when rolling over currency positions
[15:58:38] <guy> This Single Print is still short with a time closeout in 12 minutes...
[16:00:01] <mikee> 31.75 was good short coinsides with my down signal
[16:01:55] <fspeculator> could IB really be so much of the volume?
[16:02:08] <mikee> k, gn and see you tomorrow (i'm short for scalp at close) even the signal is not tooo reliable in earnings envir.
[16:02:38] <guy> gn mikee
[16:03:43] <tuna> spoos #'s 1233.3 1231.3 1229.1
[16:04:28] <guy> pit closes at 4pm?
[16:04:36] <guy> thanks tuna
[16:04:58] <tuna> no
[16:05:22] <tuna> but i dont think we go antwhere
[16:05:37] <guy> k
[16:05:47] <fspeculator> lol GOOG
[16:05:51] <fspeculator> closes @ 300
[16:06:02] <fspeculator> stocks nowadays are a circus
[16:10:42] <guy> 2nd Single Print contract closed at 665.2
[16:10:48] <guy> for +2.6
[16:11:31] <guy> Single Print strategy has made $1,540 so far this month after commissions.
[16:11:31] <fspeculator> what slippage do you have in ER?
[16:11:37] <guy> Trading 2 contracts
[16:11:40] <fspeculator> i got 2ticks a few min ago
[16:12:10] <guy> fspeculator: because the close rule is first price traded at or after 16:10:00
[16:12:28] <fspeculator> i mean in real trading
[16:12:30] <guy> i don't use slippage because a market order would sometime come out favorably and sometimes not
[16:12:49] <guy> in real trading I've never got 2 ticks slippage on ER2
[16:12:54] <guy> 1 tick is worst
[16:13:16] <guy> i've had 4 ticks slippage in ER2 but only when ISP goes down for 30 seconds...
[16:13:32] <fspeculator> i use stplmt on globex anyway
[16:13:40] <fspeculator> so latency isn't an issue
[16:14:10] <tuna> any thinking sector rotation here?
[16:14:56] <tuna> a move into large caps?
[16:15:07] <guy> Hey tuna, are the SP MP numbers still the same?
[16:15:28] <tuna> yes sir
[16:15:41] <guy> thanks
[16:15:59] <guy> good night everyone - i'll post a Singles Update on the web shortly and update the spreadsheet as well
[16:23:41] * Disconnected
Session Close: Thu Jul 14 16:23:44 2005