Globex 10-17-08

Hey,gang, just afew thoughts. The closing ticks were positive again, just like yesterday but not excessive(over 800). This would tend to indicate the rally might continue. Also the nas , as i pointed out, outpreformed the dow and s&p which would also be judged to have a bullish bias. Interestingly enough the nas was lagging tonite on globex so we should see some down side tonite and possibly into tomorrow.However ,rally or no, we would be wise to keep in mind always that we are in a bear market,and volitility rules, still. the vix hit a record intraday again today meaning a 100 handle range is entirely possible. Also even if we are lucky enough to stage a rally the oil market is telling us that we are in a wicked recession, and i believe longer term this will cap any rebound to 1100-1150,longer term. As i have explained before there is around an 80% chance of a retest or new low at some point in the future. Just a few random thoughts from an old trader.

long one from 944.00, looking for 947 to exit.

dam, hit as i was typing ..plus 3...

have a proj. back to 950.00 very short term. good luck and see you in the am!

kool,

I had told you that the $VIX was 150 in 1987. Well the $VIX wasn't around then. It was back figured to 1987...here is an article.

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/03/volatility-history-lesson-1987.html

Although it is a high on the index, that doesn't mean there has never more volatility in recent years....I had made a comment weeks ago and didn't want anyone to think I was making things up...

Interesting reading, Joe. Just another thought loosly related... if you look at a daily chart you have to go all the way back to july 15th to see more than 3 up days in a row! That means even if we rally tomorrow by late mon. or early tues it peters out(going drictly by the odds) and because the vix is so high weve already seen huge gains wiped out in 1 or 2 days several times recently(typical bear behavior) . On the positive side i see vol. increased slightly over yesterday, a bullish sign since yesterday was down. I think the fun continues well into next week. By the way, excellant trading today, CONGRATS!

PS: Ihad a sell in for 950.00 and missed by 2 ticks... sigh

getting some shut eye , see ya in the am...

I think we're going to 1100 in S&P before new lows...but now my concern is that in the overnight the Naz futures are up 94 points and the S&P is only up 4...you would think that Google and the Naz would have tried to ignite some broader buying interest.....Scary times.......Higher open in the day session is almost an automatic sell for me....920 seems to be the magnet from today now that the smoke has cleared...

current price proj. is around 915 or so. This will definitly help my option play!

thanks Rd...should be a good magnet if we can get a good entry..

quote:

---

Originally posted by redsixspeed

quote:

---

Originally posted by BruceM

we know they will take the overnight high or low over 90% of the time so it will be interesting today as usual

---

projection to upside 955.50 / so9 954.50 / overnite hi 955.00
sq. rt. from 9:15est 15min lo + .618 954.30

---