12 July 2005 (Tuesday)

Session Start: Tue Jul 12 09:05:41 2005
Session Ident: #t1
[09:17:07] <mikee> gm
[09:20:41] <guy> gm mikee
[09:23:07] <mikee> hello guy
[09:23:29] <guy> what does the short signal look like this morning?
[09:24:00] <mikee> i was out after shorted 23.75 (21.25)
[09:24:42] <mikee> for today i expected down right from open
[09:25:01] <guy> 5 minutes to open
[09:25:21] <mikee> but may be the signal i got yesterday had already worked
[09:25:25] <guy> thanks mikee
[09:25:29] <guy> good luck everyone
[09:25:31] <mikee> np
[09:25:58] <mikee> longer time i calculated target on SPX it's 1248.1-1248.6
[09:26:52] <mikee> from 2 differ. points (lower was 1136.15) i came to same target
[09:27:05] <mikee> on ES it's 1252.5
[09:28:24] <guy> no econ numbers today I believe - anybody contest that?
[09:29:01] <guy> 1 minute to open
[09:32:57] <guy> ER2 opening chart
[09:33:04] <guy> We're just below VAH
[09:33:13] <guy> so this is the classic short VAH here
[09:33:19] <signal>
[09:33:42] <guy> my chart might be wrong...
[09:33:55] <guy> no it's not - i am misreading it
[09:33:59] <guy> that is the POC
[09:34:02] <guy> not the VAH
[09:34:39] <guy> Here is the chart again with all 3 lines
[09:34:44] <signal>
[09:34:47] <guy> We opened in middle of VA
[09:35:12] <guy> with alpha showing positive signs and hinting that we go up
[09:37:25] <guy> I'll be considering a long at 671.3 at VAL if confirmed by alpha
[09:38:22] <mikee> i would be carefull on long side
[09:39:37] <mikee> spx came up exactly to .75 extension yesterday
[09:40:29] <guy> i will mikee - thanks
[09:40:33] <mikee> overall it's bullish no doubts about
[09:44:57] <guy> got strong alpha buy signals here
[09:45:14] <guy> sorry: weak alpha buy signals
[10:15:19] <guy> ER2 30min RTH chart
[10:15:30] <signal>
[10:22:56] <guy> Innerworth: A Brand New Day
[10:25:57] <tuna> btw guy
[10:26:10] <tuna> abbey alert!!!!!
[10:26:21] <tuna>
[10:27:56] <guy> is that a big swing sell signal she's showing?
[10:28:54] <tuna> almost magical
[10:30:06] <tuna> they're rollin her out today
[10:30:10] <tuna> noon
[10:32:51] <guy> Today's IB in the ER2 is 4.6 which is just above average
[10:33:16] <guy> looks like it's going to be a rotational day

[10:33:53] <guy> Shorts ER2 @ 671.8

[10:34:42] <guy> Covered all Short ER2 at 671.5 --> + 0.3

[10:35:16] <guy> signals keep on coming and going - very difficult to pick a trade in this market
[10:38:52] <guy> That last trade was instigated by a TimerA1 and AlphaA2 signal
[10:38:59] <signal>
[10:39:04] <guy> You can see the TimerA1 signal is still on the chart
[10:39:21] <guy> but the alpha signal dissappeared shortly after the trade and that's why i scratched it
[10:46:20] <guy> i have short signals here but we're half way between HOD and LOD
[10:46:32] <guy> so i don't think that this is a great place to do anything
[10:46:37] <borisfen> er2 sharp v bottom
[10:46:58] <guy> considering that this looks like a rotational day i think that it's safe to trade off the HOD and LOD
[10:47:03] <guy> i agree borisfen
[11:20:47] <fspeculator> hi. is anyone following the MP thread at ET (in journals)?
[11:21:17] <fspeculator> the guy said he's applying JP's stuff
[11:23:06] <guy> what's the URL fspeculator
[11:23:07] <guy> ?
[11:25:07] <guy> there's a thread that I'm maintaining (not very well) on ET about the single print strategy
[11:36:09] <fspeculator> no , i mean some other fellow omniscient or something is his nick
[11:36:38] <fspeculator> i sent the url here 10days ago (my play-pc monitor was kaputt so i abstained from mirc lately)
[11:37:52] <guy> i've found it - thanks fspeculator
[11:38:04] <guy> and just posted a reply on it
[11:38:42] <guy> http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=51008
[11:39:38] <guy> .
[11:39:51] <guy> Although not to the tick the DVAL and VAL have just formed a floor here
[11:39:56] <signal>
[11:40:09] <guy> (the green and lime lines)
[12:01:12] <guy> ER2 with rotation factors:
[12:01:19] <signal>
[12:02:50] <guy> coming up to IBL in ER2 now...
[12:20:41] <DrCW> good luck everyone, I'm gonna call it a day, mkt is to slow and slugish for me today
[13:46:23] <tuna> dpoc just popped up
[13:47:09] <guy> in what tuna?
[13:47:34] <tuna> er2
[13:47:56] <guy> mine's be steady for a while... ?
[13:48:05] <guy> i'll post a chart
[13:48:45] <guy> the cyan line running across the middle of the chart is the DPOC
[13:48:46] <tuna> hmmm your right
[13:48:47] <signal>
[13:49:02] <tuna> i just refreshed
[13:49:22] <tuna> esignal jeez
[13:49:49] <guy> it won't move until there's a wider TPO count closer to the center
[13:50:00] <guy> in this case it won't move until we make a new HOD
[13:50:17] <tuna> mine might
[13:50:18] <guy> then it should shift up by 1 tick for each 2 ticks over the current HOD
[13:50:22] <guy> LOL
[13:50:44] <guy> perhaps if you just using esignal MP chart there's a special system that you need for trading MP
[13:50:47] <guy> :)
[13:52:55] <guy> now it's shifted
[13:53:14] <guy> on this next chart
[13:53:23] <signal>
[13:53:38] <guy> you can see that the HOD (IBH) has been broken and when that happened the DPOC shifted up with it
[13:54:08] <guy> The DPOC can rise as high as 672.2 atm
[13:54:17] <guy> and then it should lock there
[13:55:02] <guy> so we're testing the RE to the upside now after having a normal day up to 3 minutes ago
[13:55:24] <guy> let's see if we get new business here that will bring back the bull into this market for the next up leg...
[13:55:50] <guy> if you look at that last chart you can see that both alpha and k-line are voting for a rally
[13:56:52] <guy> i think that we can safely say that we are seeing new business up here
[13:57:04] <guy> VAH now
[14:30:01] <guy_afk> Oil Futures closed
[15:00:01] <guy_afk> Bond Futures closed
[15:18:20] <mptrading> GUY
[15:18:29] <mptrading> BONDS ARE STILL OPEN
[15:18:45] <mptrading> adjust your clock !
[15:20:44] <mptrading> they close only at 4PM chicago time or 5PM NYT
[15:25:12] <fspeculator> he means pit
[15:25:46] <fspeculator> some traders even exclude bond non-pit hours from charts :-)
[15:34:30] <guy> yes - I mean pit
[15:34:41] <guy> I'll change the description
[15:35:19] <mptrading> np
[15:35:47] <guy> I've changed the message now so it should be more accurate next time you see it :)
[15:37:09] <guy> L bracket single long holding in ER2...
[15:37:43] <guy> very neat double distribution profile today
[15:38:26] <mikee> no signal for tonight - flat with bullish bias
[15:38:49] <guy> thanks mikee
[15:38:53] <mikee> 674.2 is tl
[15:39:32] <mikee> tl - trend line
[15:39:32] <fspeculator> trendline?
[15:39:43] <guy> ah - thanks
[15:39:55] <guy> 674.2 is also the buy value for the single print long
[15:40:10] <fspeculator> we came to the same tick as 2005 highs? which is also highs since 2001
[15:40:16] <mikee> so for bears i would wait breaking it, pullback up, then ss
[15:40:35] <fspeculator> terrorism, oil > $60, NFP, etc are bullish
[15:40:47] <guy> also single is at IBH
[15:41:05] <guy> here is an ER2 chart:
[15:41:21] <signal>
[15:41:24] <guy> it shows a cluster (IBH and single print) at 674.1
[15:41:26] <fspeculator> guy it'd be great if you did your time-of-day stats for other symbols
[15:41:29] <guy> + alpha is bullish here
[15:41:30] <fspeculator> namely ZB/ZN
[15:42:00] <mikee> breaking
[15:42:21] <signal>
[15:42:28] <mikee> up to 74.2-74.4

[15:42:57] <guy> Buys ER2 @ 673.7

[15:44:30] <mikee> i would wait
[15:45:21] <mikee> 672.5 is .618
[15:47:52] <fspeculator> i only waited for ES to also reach its state
[15:48:19] <fspeculator> bought 672.8
[15:49:24] <mikee> 673.45 is .5, so far stopped there
[15:49:53] <mikee> breaking 673.5, target - 674.1
[15:50:20] <mikee> but imo we going to .618
[15:50:32] <mikee> hope i'm wrong
[15:51:58] <mikee> here .618
[15:52:07] <mikee> now i'm long
[15:52:23] <mikee> stop 672.2
[15:52:27] <fspeculator> well, ES and YM behaved
[15:52:36] <fspeculator> sofar, but ER made new lows
[15:54:25] <mikee> +.6 stop b/e
[15:55:16] <mikee> targets 673.5, 674.1
[15:55:38] <mikee> +1.1, left 1c
[15:56:00] <mikee> target reached - out

[15:56:07] <guy> Exited all Long ER2 at 674.1 --> + 0.4

[15:56:23] <mikee> gn, see you tomorrow
[15:56:23] <guy> nice trading mike
[15:56:29] <guy> gn mike
[15:56:30] <mikee> thanks guy
[15:56:58] <guy> I stretched my stop out on that trade because of the way that alpha was behaving:
[15:57:01] <signal>
[16:01:52] <fspeculator> gj guy, i exited -0.4
[16:03:26] <fspeculator> but can't complain, bokoed nice 300tick profit in euro (big size)
[16:03:32] <fspeculator> booked
[16:03:49] <guy> excellent trading fspeculator :)
[16:04:00] <fspeculator> at looooong last
[16:05:07] <fspeculator> also, if you follow bonds, today had a textbook singles trade in both
[16:07:47] <guy> do you have a chart of the singles in the bonds for us
[16:07:48] <guy> ?
[16:11:34] <fspeculator>
[16:11:38] <fspeculator>
[16:11:48] <fspeculator> see open price in both of them
[16:12:05] <fspeculator> came back up to the singles a couple of hours later
[16:12:13] <fspeculator> and was a no heat short and hold EOD
[16:13:10] <fspeculator> see the fine red line in ZN chart
[16:13:46] <guy> just trying to get them up...
[16:14:25] <fspeculator> just closed my ZN short
[16:17:44] <guy> no - i can't see the fine red line?
[16:17:53] <guy> the middle of the bollinger band?
[16:18:43] <fspeculator> i mean the cursor line of esignal!
[16:19:00] <guy> i see the cursor line but that's on the bottom of the chart...
[16:19:01] <fspeculator> use the force luke :-)))
[16:19:20] <fspeculator> i'm talking ZB chart
[16:19:33] <guy> Do you mean the ZB?
[16:19:43] <guy> ah - okay
[16:19:48] <guy> yes i see now
[16:19:52] <guy> looking at wrong chart
[16:19:53] <fspeculator>
[16:20:11] <fspeculator> in mp chart it's easier, exact same in ZB and ZN
[16:20:20] <fspeculator> see y.z are IB periods
[16:20:34] <fspeculator> and then you get C touching single
[16:21:29] <guy> yes - i see it
[16:21:34] <fspeculator> esignal mp is buggy so i sent the barchart
[16:21:38] <guy> that was a good single print short there
[16:21:51] <fspeculator> i think we need to monitor many markets to pinpoint low risk trades
[16:22:03] <fspeculator> narrowing it down to just 1-2 makes it very hard
[16:22:17] <guy> have you tried the DVATool fspeculator?
[16:22:19] <fspeculator> i trade currencies, ZB/ZN, YM and ER
[16:22:37] <fspeculator> no, but i'd like to
[16:22:50] <fspeculator> i've been swamped
[16:23:10] <fspeculator> have you tried market delta?
[16:23:10] <guy> email me you esignal username and I'll enable you for the next week.
[16:23:19] <guy> are you using esignal 7.9?
[16:23:32] <fspeculator> y, 7.9 is buggy MP
[16:23:44] <fspeculator> can't use it for currencies and ZN
[16:24:15] <guy> you should be able to use DVATool instead for currencies and ZN on 7.9
[16:25:30] <fspeculator> how was trading last week?
[16:25:43] <fspeculator> i see some huge ranges in stock indices
[16:26:05] <fspeculator> (i was sidelined as 1 of my LCDs was kaputt)
[16:26:07] <guy> yes - big week last week - i made a small profit
[16:26:13] <guy> i never got onto the big moves
[16:26:23] <guy> and just sat and watched most of the time
[16:26:36] <guy> or exited too early and then couldn't find a safe place to get back in
[16:26:39] <fspeculator> y, i probably would have done same
[16:26:59] <guy> Download
[16:27:27] <guy> if you send your esignal username in next 10 minutes i'll enable you before i go to bed
[16:27:45] <fspeculator> let's do it tomorrow
[16:27:58] <fspeculator> it's late here too (23:27) as in your country
[16:27:58] <guy> np
[16:28:08] <fspeculator> thx, bye
[16:28:11] <guy> gn
[16:28:15] <guy> gn all
[16:28:27] * Disconnected
Session Close: Tue Jul 12 16:28:31 2005