ES-09-05-08

Short one es from 1243.50,covering here at 1229.50.

filled at 1230.50. Wow 13 handle trade and boy did i need it since i finished yesterday minus 11.75. Now up a whopping 2.75 for the day..lol.. but ill take it. up a little over 15 on the week.

Commentary: Well the 45 day cycle is wrecking its havoc in the market exactly as i had warned. review my past posts of the last month. Remember its not really due to bottom for a week. Obviuosly, we are in the process of a retest of the July lows exactly as predicted. we are so oversold there could be a strong rebound at any time. Will we break the July lows? Will the bear finally be over? Unfortunatly, I cant answer that. My best guess is a marginal break of the lows either next week or mid Jan. when the more powerful 120 day cycle bottoms. I believe this bear will be noteworthy in terms of time , not for the severity of the decline (like the 2000 bear when the S&p lost 49% of its value!) I doubt the recovery will be of the v shaped variety like some in the past. At any rate, I have been in cash in my 401k for most of it which puts me way ahead of most wall street funds and of course the s&p500. On any move below 1200 however , I will be moving back to fully invested.The point of this commentary is not to show how brilliant i am, because i trade very short term as you know. Just sharing the benefit of over 20 years experience of studying the market. Feel free to disagree, thats what makes a market! (ps: maybe the real point of this dicourse is if i traded on what i know id be rich! ive known this was coming, smelled it at 1303 and still could muster the guts to position trade it!)

Buying 2 es at 1227.75. 2 point stop if hit

missed by 2 ticks , order cancelled . i know , i know, Kool with the above speech why are you buying? Ive been around long enough to know a 'visious' dead cat bounce could happen at any time!Weve lost over 650 dow points in just 3 days. With todays unemployment numbers coming out, it would be a perfect scenerio.

weekly range projection filled so i'm a buyer at 1221.50

buying 1222.25, 2.5 stop (one only)

Ill also sell 1230 area for a short term scalp.

short one es at 1230.50. 2 point stop

well placed stop... covering here

out at 1228.25,up 2.25 on the day. i would much rather buy today but i need a significant decline first

Any stats on the "unfilled" 80% rule....? I heard Ann Tedisco mention it about 8 years ago but much like the 80 % rule itself there seems to be no real statistics on it.....

quote:

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Originally posted by prestwickdrive

I have been observing all of your posts for a while and wanted to thank you all for all you have shared. FWIW, keep an eye on 54.25 (yesterday's UVA) for Monday as we have an unfulfilled 80% rule today. If it continues to head for the Gulf as a 3 or 4, Ike may make it moot but like gaps filling, eventually unfulfilled 80%s tend to fulfill. Also, we have single ticks from yesterday between 55.5 and 61.5.

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