ES on 8-13-08

ES gapped down about 6pts, looking for longs in the 1279 area....ES is getting oversold on a 30 min basis. Below 1279 is some good shorting till the 70's. Markets gapped below a 2x1 line from the low on 8/05, and well below 45 from this last top.

Time check

I covered at 85 and realized a small loss on the day. There were some 85K lots traded at 85 and it took some doing but buyers managed through it. That's some feat after hours. The way I see it could be one of three scenarios: 1) It could be the beginning of the 5th wave of the first impulse of the bear. 2) It could be the third wave of the 2nd impulse of the bull. 3) It could be both and BSD will have a meeting of the minds and decide which they like best. I spot a bear controlled ABC correction in this latest move up form 80 working on what appears to be a C wave. A measured move will put the C wave terminating at 1292.25. A tick over that indicates a bull or in the chop where it could break justifably in either direction. After the day I had today I'm not risking getting burned on a false breakout.

In fact I'll probably take the month off and trade the sentiment running into the election beginning next month. I bet big today and came out with some scratches. I'm lucky. For now I'm flat.

I too get mauled from time to time, when I deviate from my daily plan. Then I just reduce the trading size and get on with it till I make it back.

You too will make it back - stay cool!