The Fade

Anyone besides me think a longer term fade at R2 99 seems a safe play? This isn't a bottom but I do believe we're off to make it one.

I have a bear reversed divergence cup and handle sell forming.

Just a heads up.

I didn't get the best fill, considering the 377 EMA test bias I had. I went GTC short at 95 even off of the bear flag. Here's yet another ABC. Only this time I don't think it will recover. Bulls, or rather the FED, managed to get banks to load the markets with more borrowed money to prop up from saving a crash. We tested and won two bear legs on the worst fundamental news since the 70's, at least, and really mirroring the problems that led up to the Great Depression. We'll see if investors will go along with the bottom building. I personally don't think anyone will be caught dead trying to pick a bottom in hopes of staving off the inevitable catipulation. Next phase: panic.

I chickened out. I held my position during the run up but after noticing even amid the selloff, the A/D line didn't budge and the A/D volume actually increased 50 million shares. lol I took that as a sign, pony show charade or no, that the show isn't over. Took 2 1/2 scratch off the table.

50 million contracts shy of 3/4 of a billion shares traded today, bulls ended it ahead 3 to 1. Come Sunday the Euro session..it's anyone's guess, but it can't end good is all that I know.

Those orderly exits were smart money masking shorts too. You can tell. The rest are Johnnies came late only adding impetus short.

I kept my money and made some. I'm happy. I'm flat until the trendline's busted up or confirmed solid though. Fortunes will be lost.

I'm already in for the bottom as per my Williams Darlings thread...we'll see how it goes......so far, so good

quote:

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Originally posted by SPQR

We'll see if investors will go along with the bottom building. I personally don't think anyone will be caught dead trying to pick a bottom in hopes of staving off the inevitable catipulation. Next phase: panic.

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Admittedly without being an MP reader my analysis has a lot of room for objectivity when most of my style is discretionary and subjective. I'm not a B&H investor. Nor does my account suffer. The markets spend far too little time trending to assume the added risk, for me. Though one thing to me is crystal clear at this point: Call it a bottom or a bounce, either way, the move to the upside was created by position bears scaling out from last October reducing risk and perma-bulls and the blindly optimistic are barely sustaining it.

While BSD with smart money apparently feel a bottom should be built, this is only the first real indication of it. From March to May was an anticipated measured move correction most perma-bears faired all in. It is a bear flag. Though rational men should be able to agree to respectfully disagree.

It is your money afterall. Far be it for me to assume the responsibility for it. Trust me when I say I honestly hope you don't end up stuck holding what was prematurely thought to be value. It's a bitch of a place to be, especially having loaded up as you declare to have done.

Best of luck to you, Bruce.