Single Prints Forward Test - July 2005

This test is a continuation of the June strategy which lost just under 12% in that month. Here is a link to the June 2005 strategy.

The same rules will apply to this month as for June.

18 July 2005: Update

No single prints created and no trades triggered.

Cumulative monthly profit: $1,650

19 July 2005: Update

2 single print trades gets stopped out at a total loss of $420

The Single Print spreadsheet has been updated.

Cumulative monthly profit: $1,230

20 July 2005: Update

2 single prints created but no trades triggered.

Cumulative monthly profit: $1,230

21 July 2005: Update

4 single print trades are stopped out at total loss of $840. Two of those single prints were created today.

The Single Print spreadsheet has been updated.

Cumulative monthly profit: $390

22 July 2005: Update

2 single prints created but no trades triggered.

Cumulative monthly profit: $390

25 July 2005: Update

2 single print trades triggered and 2 new singles created.
Total loss of $20.

The Single Print spreadsheet has been updated.

Cumulative monthly profit: $370

26 July 2005: Update

2 single print trades triggered.
Total profit of $380.

The Single Print spreadsheet has been updated.

Cumulative monthly profit: $750

We have 3 more days left in the Single Print strategy this month and it is unlikely that I will continue to update it in the following months.

I have concluded that this is probably a viable strategy and it may be possible to improve the strategy by adding certain filters. I will be back testing these ideas in the futures.

I will be leaving you with the spreadsheet to play with at will. You can glean further information from the strategy by playing around with the spreadsheet. For example, if you change the strategy to use a single target of 2 points then you will notice that the results for both June and July (to date) will show improvements of $60 and $1,020 respectfully. (Hint: set the second target equal to the first target and copy that formula down the column.)

You can also use the auto-filter in Excel to view the Rotation Factors in the July strategy and see if the Rotation Factor was an influence (and a potential filter) when trading this strategy.

This makes the strategy a more attractive strategy for the new or low capitalized trader because with single stop and single target you can trade this strategy with 1 contract instead of 2 (i.e. risk half as much) and get better results.

Of course you should be fully aware that past performance is no indication of future performance and you should conduct your own tests and develop your own risk management strategies.

Trading futures is dangerous and this is not advice to buy or sell.

27 July 2005: Update

1 single print created and then triggered during the day which was stopped out at a loss.
Total loss of $210.

The Single Print spreadsheet has been updated.

Cumulative monthly profit: $540

28 July 2005: Update

No Single Print trades and no Single Prints created.

Cumulative monthly profit: $540

As mentioned 3 days ago, I'm not going to pursue this forward testing journal anymore. It is my opinion that Single Prints do indeed give you enough of an edge to make them a viable strategy.

I believe that this strategy can be improved by adding filters and improving the money management once a trade has been entered. I think that the money management has a lot of room for improvement.

I will be working with my Back Tester program to try and optimize what filters need to be used with Single Prints to make this strategy most effective as well as improved money management techniques.

Good luck to anybody else following this strategy and keep me posted on any results that you think might be interesting to follow up on.

Regards,
Guy Ellis