23 June 2005 (Thursday)

Session Start: Thu Jun 23 07:56:13 2005
Session Ident: #t1
[08:52:44] <tuna> gm
[08:53:21] <guy> gm tuna
[09:16:36] <guy> Existing Home Sales
[09:16:36] <guy> 10:00 ET
[09:19:11] <moneyhoney> gm
[09:20:09] <guy> gm
[09:20:56] <moneyhoney> guy is the delta site your site?
[09:25:01] <guy> 5 minutes to open
[09:25:41] <guy> yes moneyhoney
[09:26:34] <moneyhoney> thats a good site guy!!! I havent gottenthrough all of it yet but i like it for piv calc
[09:28:09] <guy> thanks moneyhoney
[09:28:19] <guy> here is the ER2 now with the VAH and VAL and POC
[09:28:22] <signal>
[09:28:25] <guy> ignore the red dotted line
[09:28:26] <moneyhoney> no thank you...for putting it out there
[09:28:32] <guy> that will dissappear at open
[09:28:35] <guy> y/w :)
[09:28:47] <guy> the red solid line and green line bound the VA
[09:28:56] <guy> so ER2 opening in VA
[09:29:01] <guy> 1 minute to open
[09:29:30] <guy> Same jackanory for ES: Opening in middle of VA
[09:29:38] <signal>
[09:35:42] <guy> Existing Home Sales 10:00 ET
[09:36:45] <guy> looking to short 645.8

[09:45:59] <guy> Shorts ER2 @ 645.8

[09:46:09] <guy> exit stop set ER2 @ 646.8

[09:46:50] <guy> Covered all Short ER2 at 645.6 --> + 0.2

[09:47:02] <guy> alpha gave up on me ....
[09:47:21] <guy> here is the chart
[09:47:31] <guy> you can see that we come up against the VAH
[09:47:34] <signal>
[09:47:37] <guy> alpha says that it's safe to short
[09:47:46] <guy> i already have a limit in place so early fill
[09:48:01] <guy> then alpha just races up after that showing no support to the short trade
[09:48:07] <guy> so I killed the trade
[09:48:17] <guy> same thing happened yesterday with the long
[09:48:24] <guy> greenspan talking soon I think
[09:48:38] <guy> and Existing Home Sales at 10:00 ET
[09:52:24] <They> FWIW, I'm now short the ER2 645.40
[09:53:31] <guy> based on VAH They?
[09:53:45] <They> Yes
[09:53:55] <guy> good luck :)
[09:55:15] <They> I think I'll need it :-)
[09:59:45] <guy> report in 30 seconds
[10:10:54] <guy> good trading They
[10:30:57] <guy> Rotation Factors:
[10:31:06] <signal>
[10:35:20] <guy> Small IB in the ER2:
[10:35:29] <signal>
[10:35:42] <guy> Unlikely that the range will remain this small so need to look for RE
[10:36:07] <guy> ER2 chart now...
[10:36:22] <signal>
[10:36:48] <guy> Okay ER2 RE on downside
[10:41:00] <guy> RE was by 3 ticks so not sure what sort of weight to give that
[10:41:11] <guy> it's almost RE but not quite
[10:41:53] <guy> alpha is not helping me at all at the moment and TimerA1 is silent so I'm just going to watch until something worthwhile happens
[10:42:51] <guy> I hope that this short works out for you They
[10:48:45] <They> Me too, need to get down to YVAL before I get a possible exit
[10:49:20] <They> Got to stick to the rules even if it hurts like hell
[10:56:29] <guy> Very true :)
[11:05:59] <guy> .
[11:06:00] <guy> Not sure if any of you have heard of Alex Elder: He has written some books on trading. Anyway, a couple of days ago he falsely accused me of "being a crook and dishonnest man" in a Yahoo Group. I've put this on the web to set the record straight if any of you are interested: Elder Crook
[11:06:02] <guy> .
[11:11:29] <guy> ER2 chart now
[11:11:39] <signal>
[11:11:47] <guy> Have a look at the RE on the downside
[11:12:05] <guy> we just tested it briefly and doesn't look like we found new business there
[11:12:21] <guy> but boy is this range narrow
[11:12:32] <guy> 3 points so far
[11:13:01] <guy> and we're back into the middle of the range
[11:25:27] <They> Elder sure tries to come off as calm cool and collected in his publications, I guess the saying "Its easy to be a holy man on top of a moutain" rings true in his case - I think he should get some therapy
[11:26:17] <guy> i want to know how he can be a psychiatrist with a temperament like that?
[11:30:48] <guy> Rotation Factors coming up:
[11:31:01] <signal>
[11:31:01] <guy> This is a tough market today.
[11:43:08] <They> Ugh, puked up the short at 646.40 -1
[11:49:40] <guy> you showed excellent resillience and patience They - congratulate yourself on following your plan
[11:49:53] <guy> I'm more impressed with that than if you'd made 5 points profit
[11:54:52] <They> Thanks Guy, the system nets about .6 ER2 points per trade, so I can't complain
[11:57:42] <guy> that's a good edge
[11:57:48] <guy> do you trade once a day?
[12:00:27] <signal>
[12:00:54] <They> The max trades I have seen so far in back testing and live is 4
[12:01:35] <They> So the system could get me short again
[12:34:38] <fspeculator> guy i just got a glimpse of your post about Elder
[12:34:50] <guy> thx They
[12:34:52] <guy> hi fspec
[12:35:52] <fspeculator> i bought his (programmed by 3rd party with "seal of approval" sold via his site) "Triple screen" system
[12:35:59] <fspeculator> back in 2000
[12:36:05] <guy> k
[12:36:12] <guy> for what platform?
[12:36:19] <fspeculator> and i tested it over 10 different markets
[12:36:56] <fspeculator> TS (only choice for backtesting back then anyway, and still better than 90% of sw)
[12:37:08] <fspeculator> and it lost money on every market
[12:37:20] <fspeculator> so, don't bother to omuch with Elder
[12:38:03] <fspeculator> He wrote a very successful book (Trading for a Living), which still sells a lot of copies. but his royalties are minimal
[12:38:41] <fspeculator> so he became a vendor/seminar guy, for affluent individuals.
[12:39:09] <fspeculator> back then , when i used to watch his seminar "teaser" video for a laugh
[12:39:54] <fspeculator> those seminars were taking place in exotic places
[12:41:53] <guy> yes i've seen the "teasers"
[12:42:05] <guy> i think that he is coming to your country soon isn't he?
[12:42:09] <fspeculator> he's not a hardcore crook, but not worth losing time over his
[12:42:32] <fspeculator> not, afaik, i think he organised some seminars in Cyprus though
[12:42:49] <guy> you're right - it was cyprus
[12:42:54] <fspeculator> there aren't any traders in greece, to the best of my knowledge
[12:43:24] <guy> i only got upset because he posted on a forum that i am a "crook and dishonnest man"
[12:43:40] <guy> i think if someone did that to anyone in this room they would not like it
[12:44:02] <fspeculator> y, i understand how you feel
[12:44:21] <fspeculator> i would be upset too, even if wrong accused by somebody who's a nobody
[12:44:24] <guy> especially when it's not true - so i didn't have much choice really - if i wanted to clear my name
[12:44:49] <fspeculator> you know what they say...
[12:44:57] <fspeculator> any publicity is good publicity
[12:45:18] <fspeculator> for real "exposure" go pick a fight with larry williams
[12:45:30] <fspeculator> man, i have some hilarious stuff in my library
[12:46:03] <guy> who is larry williams?
[12:46:06] <fspeculator> LW calling some australian fellow names and daring him to confront him, a la "old west"
[12:46:13] <fspeculator> ohmygwd!
[12:46:20] <fspeculator> you don't know LW?
[12:47:03] <fspeculator> the "legendary trader" who made $1.1m starting 10k in robbins trading competition
[12:47:21] <guy> now that you mention it his name rings a bell
[12:47:26] <guy> but i know nothing about him
[12:47:43] <fspeculator> the man whose promo material has a photo where he's next to Reagan, going off Airforce-I
[12:47:51] <fspeculator> i mean really hilarious stuff
[12:48:03] <fspeculator> i have a section of my library devoted to the fun part of trading
[12:48:34] <fspeculator> the money who promotes "the money tree"
[12:48:42] <guy> :)
[12:48:50] <fspeculator> or "how to make an extra $10k/mo spending 20min of your time per day"
[12:49:26] <fspeculator> trading would be so dull without all these clowns !!!!
[12:49:51] <guy> that's probably why i don't know much about him - i always ignore those "how to make an extra $10k/mo spending 20min of your time per day"
[12:49:55] <fspeculator> i liked the phrasing "extra $10k/mo"...
[12:50:18] <guy> true - i should watch that stuff for a laugh
[12:50:26] <fspeculator> how can you possibly ignore a guy who is riding AF-1 along with Reagan (then President)
[12:50:42] <fspeculator> are you suggesting US presidents aren't serious persons?
[12:51:10] <guy> LOL
[12:51:21] <fspeculator> i'm sure we can find something for you, in some of the Patriot acts
[12:57:47] <fspeculator>
[12:58:09] <fspeculator>
[12:58:36] <fspeculator> just take some screenshots from LW's brochure
[12:58:53] <fspeculator> i have a section of my "funny trading stuff" devoted to those people
[12:58:55] <fspeculator> LW, Elder etc
[12:59:01] <fspeculator> dozens of them
[13:01:38] <fspeculator> i can't find the elder video :-(
[13:01:59] <fspeculator> it was so funny, i must have watched it 50 times
[13:01:59] <guy> was it on the web?
[13:02:09] <fspeculator> the video?
[13:02:13] <guy> yes
[13:02:29] <fspeculator> can't remember... i have digitised 100s of stuff
[13:02:46] <fspeculator> audio tapes from Omegaworld seminars
[13:02:52] <fspeculator> anything you can imagine
[13:03:13] <fspeculator> might have been VHS tape and i may have turned it into MPG
[13:05:30] <tuna> holy cow guy, i just read that elder crap
[13:05:59] <tuna> jeez,,hes nuts
[13:06:11] <fspeculator> just getting old probably
[13:06:22] <tuna> mebbe
[13:06:35] <fspeculator> it's hard to keep one's humor in this biz
[13:07:07] <fspeculator> i'll search my library on elder, there was some very funny stuff
[13:07:29] <tuna> i kinda wonder who the crook is
[13:07:48] <fspeculator> y, it's a real tough choice to make :-)
[13:07:54] <tuna> lol
[13:23:44] <fspeculator> guy you know "dr" elder is psychiatrist
[13:30:37] <guy_afk> yes fspec
[13:31:00] <guy_afk> that's the amazing thing about it
[13:32:05] <tuna> nahh lotsa them go nuts
[13:33:42] <guy_afk> LOL tuna
[13:36:33] <fspeculator> actually i just finished reading it
[13:36:40] <fspeculator> (i had just read the first page)
[13:37:35] <fspeculator> but my question to you guy is why do you bother with any of this stuff
[13:37:36] <fspeculator> ?
[13:38:02] <guy_afk> very good question
[13:38:20] <fspeculator> i mean, are you trying to become a sw vendor?
[13:38:23] <guy_afk> after his threatening email in January I didn't bother with any of it
[13:38:36] <fspeculator> if your goal is to combine programming skills with tradin
[13:38:39] <guy_afk> but then 2 days ago he made those false accusations
[13:38:47] <fspeculator> trading, there are much better ways to capitalize on this
[13:39:18] <fspeculator> rather than coding indicators of amateur "gurus"
[13:39:24] <fspeculator> just my 2c
[13:39:29] <guy_afk> yes i agree fspec
[13:39:45] <guy_afk> it was just that i had coded the indicators out of curiosity while reading the books
[13:39:52] <guy_afk> and it was easy to commercialize what i had
[13:40:16] <fspeculator> did Elders last book sell many copies?
[13:40:26] <fspeculator> i know "trading for a living" has been a best seller
[13:40:52] <fspeculator> but as i said (i researched this stuff), Elder makes next to nothing from royalties of TFAL
[13:41:23] <fspeculator> so he's trying to capitalise his "name" by doing seminars, leasing stuff
[13:41:54] <guy_afk> yes - i believe so
[13:41:55] <fspeculator> i wouldn't say he was a really bad vendor (back in 2000 when he was more active)
[13:42:25] <fspeculator> but his reaction is unacceptable
[13:42:57] <guy_afk> he reaction was astounding
[13:45:52] <fspeculator> as a biz decision, i don't think it'd pay anyway
[13:45:59] <panalen> what happened guy? i guess i missed the beginning of this conversation...
[13:46:10] <fspeculator> Elder has been out of fashion for several years
[13:46:58] <guy> Not sure if any of you have heard of Alex Elder: He has written some books on trading. Anyway, a couple of days ago he falsely accused me of "being a crook and dishonnest man" in a Yahoo Group. I've put this on the web to set the record straight if any of you are interested: Elder Crook
[13:47:07] <fspeculator> his stuff was selling nicely during late 90s until maybe 2002
[13:47:09] <guy> There we go panalen
[13:47:30] <fspeculator> then all the amateurs wannabe traders were washed by the markets
[13:47:51] <fspeculator> and i'm sure they're flipping real-estate nowadays, with much better results i assume
[13:48:16] <fspeculator> stocks are dead since 2003
[13:57:56] <guy> ER2 chart now
[13:57:57] <signal>
[13:58:09] <guy> I'm at a loss as to what to do now.
[13:58:13] <guy> k-line says up
[13:58:18] <guy> alpha is negative
[13:58:25] <guy> TimerA1 is at a buy
[13:58:47] <guy> I'm going to continue to stand aside - actually i'm really going to have dinner now
[14:30:01] <guy> Oil Futures closed
[14:32:03] <guy> New singles:
[14:32:12] <signal>
[14:34:56] <guy> ER2 now
[14:35:04] <signal>
[14:35:07] <guy> thick white dotted line is the new single
[14:35:17] <guy> and the blue dotted line is DIBL
[14:58:48] <guy> Innerworth today: Losing your money and objectivity
[15:15:07] <guy> They: you were unlucky with your trade today
[15:26:41] <They> I got it the second time though
[15:28:56] <They> I trade the same system in the YM, ES and NQ
[15:29:04] <They> After the morning funk, I am a very happy trader today
[15:29:38] <guy> I bet you are - excellent trading :)
[15:30:01] <guy> Bond Futures closed
[15:49:25] <guy> Here is a chart of the ER2 for the PM
[15:49:33] <signal>
[15:49:43] <guy> I have marked at points A and B places where I missed to opportunity to short
[15:50:15] <guy> This was the ER2 coming back up to DIBL (an MP trade) and there was confirmation (pink lines) from alpha
[16:00:29] <guy> New singles and RFs:
[16:00:34] <signal>
[16:16:08] <guy> Both ES and ER2 made LOD in last 30 seconds of trading
[16:16:18] <guy> I believe that ER2 closed on LOD
[16:16:57] <guy> That P bracket single will be interesting tomorrow and also the fact that we are so far below VAL at close today
[16:17:00] <guy> see you all tomorrow
[16:17:03] <guy> gn all
Session Close: Thu Jun 23 16:17:40 2005