22 June 2005 (Wednesday)

Session Start: Wed Jun 22 10:24:57 2005
Session Ident: #t1

[10:46:16] <guy> Buys ER2 @ 643.8

[10:47:04] <guy> ER2 chart with signal:
[10:47:05] <signal>
[10:47:15] <guy> Signal is VAL confirmed by alpha

[10:47:49] <guy> exit stop set ER2 @ 642.8

[10:49:11] <guy> Exited all Long ER2 at 643.8 --> 0

[10:49:22] <guy> alpha is weakening here quickly
[10:49:40] <guy> so not follow through confirmation yet...
[10:51:01] <guy> We also have RE on the downside...
[10:51:48] <guy> The value of alpha is dropping faster than the ER2 which means that the buy signal is getting weaker
[10:52:03] <guy> so this is stay out of longs now...
[10:57:13] <fspeculator> maybe one little drop before 2Q05 window dressing?
[11:00:38] <signal>
[11:00:39] <guy> Rotation Factors
[11:13:30] <guy> Innerworth today: Winning Traders Are Disciplined
[11:39:53] <signal>
[11:40:00] <guy> Rotation Factors and new F brack single in ER2
[11:40:08] <guy> Single at 644.5 in ER2
[11:40:36] <guy> Single Print Test Strategy has a limit short order at 644.4
[12:01:21] <guy> Rotation Factors:
[12:01:21] <signal>
[13:00:25] <guy> Single fills on ES and rotation factors:
[13:00:37] <signal>
[13:00:57] <guy> single just filled on ER2 as well
[13:01:18] <guy> So Single Print Test Strategy is now running a short position on ER2
[13:01:32] <guy> From 644.4 with a stop at 645.4
[13:03:52] <guy> Single Print Strategy stopped out at a loss of 1 point for 2 contracts
[13:14:41] <guy> moneyhoney: this is a channel where having a voice really helps
[13:14:47] <guy> otherwise you can't post comments
[13:16:52] <moneyhoney> ok thanks guy
[13:17:00] <moneyhoney> just thought i would chec it out
[13:21:25] <guy> things happen in spurts in here
[13:21:42] <guy> quiet for most of the time then frantic activity when something happens - like a trade
[13:22:19] <moneyhoney> well luch time
[13:38:58] <moneyhoney> thank you for the info guy...have a good day...
[14:18:19] <guy> My apologies for not trading everyone but I'm just watching this market and don't see any great setups at the moment
[14:18:36] <guy> that earlier trade fell apart and I was lucky to get out at b/e when I did
[14:30:01] <guy> Oil Futures closed
[15:06:10] <guy> Current snapshot of ER2:
[15:06:21] <guy> I see no "great" trade setups at the moment
[15:06:30] <signal>
[15:10:02] <deputy_dog> ym prolly bounce off the submerged 50/1, around 315, if i wasnt long already i would be tempted to buy then
[15:18:42] <deputy_dog> popped off the 20 and a bit early
[15:30:01] <guy> Bond Futures closed
[15:42:32] <fspeculator> how did it go?
[15:43:19] <deputy_dog> fspec mostly out, did ok
[15:44:04] <fspeculator> guy let me know if you talked to devil about my case
[15:45:40] <fspeculator> in ES best trade i see was short the singles
[15:46:05] <fspeculator> for a 3-4pt if you were lucky or breakeven for me (i let it run)
[16:03:02] <guy> fspec she thinks that you're a good trading and to ignore her temptations
[16:03:28] <guy> trading=trader
[16:03:52] <fspeculator> sigh, there's no hope then :-)
[16:03:57] <guy> :)
[16:04:06] <guy> was anybody long the ER2 into that spike?
[16:04:36] <tuna> nope
[16:04:53] <guy> Here's a quick chart of that spike in ER2
[16:04:59] <signal>
[16:05:06] <tuna> that spike took out a lota stops
[16:06:09] <deputy_dog> mr fox was apparently, or got triggered into it
[16:06:31] <guy> i think that it probably was a stop run
[16:06:40] <tuna> yup
[16:07:11] <guy> I would love to do a "forensic analysis" of that run but there looks like too much volume
[16:07:18] <guy> in that spike to make it worth while
[16:07:22] <fspeculator> no range in stocks lately (just watching YM/ES_
[16:07:30] <fspeculator> maybe ER is better
[16:07:51] <fspeculator> guy, since you're into analysis
[16:08:00] <fspeculator> many people analyze order book
[16:08:31] <guy> I really enjoyed doing this "spike analysis"
[16:08:41] <guy> but that was fairly easy because it was outside of RTH
[16:08:51] <fspeculator> y, i remember that
[16:08:55] <tuna> do u ever trade hsi or emd?
[16:09:03] <guy> and you could go back and see what the bid/offers were and see how the stop run triggered the spike
[16:09:16] <fspeculator> noi tuna
[16:09:30] <fspeculator> they're too illiquid for my taste
[16:09:44] <guy> what are HSI and WMD ?
[16:09:49] <fspeculator> maybe that is a advantage, i have no idea
[16:09:55] <fspeculator> EMD = midcap
[16:10:08] <fspeculator> HSI= hong kon
[16:10:11] <fspeculator> kong
[16:10:23] <tuna> heng seng index
[16:10:40] <guy> EMD - ticker symbol MC ?
[16:10:52] <tuna> emd is s+p midcap
[16:11:00] <tuna> its real thin
[16:11:15] <guy> midcap 400 right? then next 400 after S&P right?
[16:11:55] <tuna> yes mc on esig
[16:12:10] <fspeculator> i think R1k and R2k are the ones to look
[16:12:12] <guy> thanks
[16:12:16] <guy> yes - very thin
[16:12:25] <fspeculator> open, licensable (both cme and eurexus)
[16:12:56] <fspeculator> maybe only good idea is people doing arb between the futs and the ETFs
[16:14:10] <fspeculator> guy did you notice the posts in ET about blotters?
[16:14:19] <guy> no
[16:14:21] <fspeculator> the stock guys seems to make nice wins
[16:14:24] <guy> what are blotters?
[16:14:39] <fspeculator> http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=50472&goto=newpost
[16:15:36] <tuna> in stocks u can pick out something thats moveing
[16:17:06] <fspeculator> also there's some fellow doing a MP journal
[16:17:22] <guy> what am I looking for in that link fspec?
[16:17:31] <guy> i can't find the word blotter?
[16:17:34] <fspeculator> but didn't manage to read it in detail, he seemed new but very detailed in his report
[16:18:10] <fspeculator> guy, blotter they call the dump of their daily P/L (i think, not an english native speaker)
[16:18:21] <fspeculator> they sent screenshots of their daily positions
[16:18:52] <fspeculator> start from page #1
[16:20:22] <guy> okay - i'm with you now
[16:20:23] <fspeculator> some guy making avg 5k/day scalping penny stocks
[16:20:31] <guy> so the blotter is their P/L page
[16:22:33] <fspeculator> he started the threads 2mo ago
[16:22:44] <fspeculator> sofar i didn't see any post by futures traders
[16:22:49] <fspeculator> makes you wonder <sigh>
[16:23:01] <tuna> btw fspec those singles on es,,,they filled on the spooz at that time
[16:23:16] <fspeculator> the first time you mean?
[16:23:24] <tuna> by 6 ticks
[16:23:57] <tuna> 21.25 on es
[16:23:58] <fspeculator> so you'd have gone long for a runup to HOD and stopped out....
[16:24:28] <tuna> conflicting signal
[16:24:41] <fspeculator> tuna i have single filled by 3 ES ticks
[16:24:42] <tuna> for me anyway
[16:25:14] <tuna> spoos filled by 6
[16:26:10] <fspeculator> can you really be so specific?
[16:26:42] <tuna> acutally by 9
[16:27:09] <tuna> total
[16:27:22] <fspeculator> btw, just talking my pain here, i got stopped out @ LOD in euro today
[16:27:31] <tuna> during f period
[16:27:33] <fspeculator> 1.2137, to the very tick
[16:28:08] <fspeculator> still waiting for the day when the opposite will happen, saved by a tick
[16:28:19] <tuna> lol
[16:29:15] <tuna> i show es filled by 5 during f period
[16:30:09] <fspeculator>
[16:31:05] <fspeculator> green is volume single
[16:31:30] <fspeculator> but this kind of ranges are untradeable for me
[16:34:06] <tuna> i now a guy whos been trading the er2 with great success
[16:34:48] <tuna> he told me he uses a 20 second chart a 1 min and a 3 min
[16:34:54] <guy> know
[16:35:30] <tuna> all indicators set the same for all charts
[16:35:41] <tuna> thx guy
[16:36:02] <tuna> i was gonna look into it
[16:36:09] <fspeculator> how many trades per day?
[16:36:27] <fspeculator> i mean what's his scope, risk 10ticks for 15ticks?
[16:36:29] <tuna> i dunno
[16:36:47] <tuna> no way
[16:36:58] <fspeculator> probably more right?
[16:37:02] <tuna> he get out real fast
[16:37:09] <fspeculator> even less?
[16:37:16] <fspeculator> then he's pure momentum trader
[16:37:21] <tuna> lot less
[16:37:56] <tuna> as soon as it goes his way stop goes to be
[16:38:07] <tuna> hes fast
[16:38:31] <fspeculator> i have special LLC arrangement with CME for reduced excange fees
[16:38:40] <tuna> he said the trick is the 3 time frames
[16:38:41] <fspeculator> i trade 0-3 trades per market
[16:38:54] <fspeculator> and still pay 3k./mo commissions
[16:39:04] <tuna> all multiples of 3
[16:39:19] <fspeculator> i can;t imagine how it'd look if i were scalping
[16:39:25] <tuna> hence the 20 sec 1 min 3min
[16:39:35] <fspeculator> maybe if i had 1/10 of my current costs...
[16:40:05] <fspeculator> that;s where any similarity between me and that fellow ends :-)
[16:40:34] <tuna> he usually just trades a 3 lot
[16:40:55] <fspeculator> anyway, i think that relatively unpopular markets offer more opportunity
[16:41:07] <fspeculator> that P/L thread got me thinking .......................
[16:41:32] <fspeculator> i think currencies are the best market right nowe
[16:42:31] <fspeculator> i don't know much about stocks, i considered them too risky vs futures
[16:42:50] <fspeculator> i.e. those guys scalping pennies in front of bulldozer
[16:43:30] <fspeculator> one goes for 3c on a 20.000 lot, and then you get some news, ISP down, broker down, exchange down
[16:43:34] <fspeculator> and you're down 50k
[16:44:02] <fspeculator> or up 50k, but never happened to me that way :-)
[16:44:17] <guy> tuna: did you talk to this guy on skype?
[16:45:00] <guy> there was someone on skype that i talked to who sounds similar to this guy
[16:45:05] <tuna> nahh he an op on financial chat
[16:45:13] <guy> I think that his skype nick was russell2000
[16:45:19] <guy> okay
[16:45:36] <tuna> his nick is scorp
[16:45:44] <tuna> hes an op
[16:46:02] <guy> i went into that network/chanel a few weeks ago
[16:46:03] <tuna> another op taught him the set up
[16:46:06] <guy> and saw him
[16:46:17] <guy> i know who you are talking about
[16:46:44] <tuna> wwwest taught him the set up
[16:47:17] <tuna> said the 3 time frames are the key
[16:47:34] <fspeculator> have we given up on MP?
[16:47:38] <guy> so 20 sec, 1 min and 3 min
[16:47:38] <tuna> he just explained it to me last night
[16:47:51] <tuna> thats what he uses
[16:47:53] <guy> and he uses same indies on the 3 charts
[16:47:56] <fspeculator> why 20sec? tickcharts would be better
[16:48:00] <tuna> yup
[16:48:08] <fspeculator> you mean indicators
[16:48:17] <guy> yes indicators
[16:48:18] <tuna> yup
[16:48:53] <fspeculator> you may also want to look at the posts by some fellow called "lefty" in ET
[16:49:08] <fspeculator> he trades ES etc and apparently successfully
[16:49:19] <tuna> so u guys now know as much as i do
[16:49:31] <tuna> er2 mainly
[16:50:52] <tuna> he said u can use any times u want,,but to do the mutiple of 3 thing
[16:51:20] <fspeculator> http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=769460#post769460
[16:51:26] <tuna> it works well for him
[16:51:49] <fspeculator> this guy lefty supposedly trades big, has others trading for him etc
[16:51:54] <deputy_dog> T1 and deltaT automatically factor in 5 time frames
[16:52:02] <fspeculator> i take everything with a grain of salt
[16:52:51] <fspeculator> sofar blotter thread was the only one to suggest consistent trading is possible (mine isn't consistent)
[16:53:01] <tuna> elitetrader is a nuthouse
[16:53:45] <tuna> cool deputy
[16:53:47] <fspeculator> there are 40k members, some are good
[16:54:11] <tuna> guy can automate it then
[16:54:34] <tuna> optimize it
[16:54:43] <tuna> back test it
[16:54:58] <tuna> guy hurry up
[17:01:40] <fspeculator> i think we lost guy since the blotter thread :-)
[17:02:12] <fspeculator> or he went to bed, it's midnight there (and here)
[17:03:14] <tuna> oh yeah thats right
[17:04:55] <tuna> looks like it works on volume charts 100v,300v,900v
[17:05:01] <tuna> fwiw
[17:05:17] <fspeculator> my 2c:
[17:05:29] <fspeculator> at <10pt ranges ES is mostly noise
[17:06:14] <fspeculator>
[17:06:23] <fspeculator> how can you trade THIS with indicators?
[17:07:09] <fspeculator> maybe just "fade every breakout" from eyeballing it
[17:07:11] <tuna> yup been sideways for sure
[17:07:41] <tuna> hasnt move 1% in a day for a long time
[17:07:57] <fspeculator> hasn't had a -2% in >2yr
[17:08:43] <fspeculator> i wonder, aren't asian traders trading currencies?
[17:09:19] <fspeculator> why is asian session so light in CME currency futures?
[17:11:09] <tuna> dunno i dont trad them
[17:12:07] <fspeculator> only consolation is my charts look better than most
[17:12:27] <fspeculator> except some guys like enthios' :-)
Session Close: Wed Jun 22 17:22:09 2005