I'd bet your life...

Just having some fun here but I'd bet your life that we retest the 1358 number today in the S&P now that we are in the 1352 area.....what would you bet my life on...?

C. S. Lewis in 'Surprised By Joy' speaking of appreciating nature and art said, 'Total surrender is the first step towards the fruition of either. Shut your mouth; open your eyes and ears. Take in what there is and give no thought to what might have been there or what is somewhere else - - ' Great trading advice too. I have found this difficult to do but when I can it makes trade very profitable. Why even try to fade a clear trend. The trick for shorts now is to know when to go flat. With Friday trading this is even more difficult.
Dafydd.

well I think most don't trade so the real trick is to actually call out trades ahead of time......these " trends" always look easy while looking at the left side of the chart but fading these types of moves is no doubt tricky, but overtime they are quite profitable.....best to stick to what works for you...the 1345 is still the area to watch if it gets moving.....

perhaps we can all make some money today......

Bruce there is nothing easy about trading and Friday trading is particularly difficult. Here is a possibility before the fact (much like Warwick's opening salvo yesterday when he called for a test of the VAL of the last few weeks after failing to take out the VAH), the projected Fibonacci low for this leg down from yesterday's high is in the 1332.00 area. Would I bet my life on it? No! but it is a low risk, high probability target.

Dafydd.

just took some off at 47 even..trying for 50 - 51 next...single prints just filled in on dow and es...so this may retrace

I'm not going to drag this on but what SPECIFICALLY makes this a low risk , high probability target? I can't define any risk on this trade as you never said where you got in etc.....I've had too many "conversations" with people who make after the fact calls....not saying this is you as you are new here but it would be helpful if you elaborated a bit....give some reasons etc....thanks

quote:

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Originally posted by dafydd

Fibonacci low for this leg down from yesterday's high is in the 1332.00 area. Would I bet my life on it? No! but it is a low risk, high probability target.

Dafydd.

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after getting stopped on runners at 1342.25 I'm trying longs again at 38.75.42.50 is initial is target...

Bruce, First off my trading is nobody'e business but mine as yours should be only yours. Besides C.S. Lewis' sage advice and the hints that followed to help you, you persisted to ignore the market generated clues and persisted to fight the trend. Let me enumerate for you the clues to profitable trading today:-

1) With the large gap down from yesterday's VA we know yesterday's perceived value had be rejected.

2) Was this a Gap & Trap opportunity? Your choice.

3) The First Fifteen Minute Breakout criteria for a high probability trend day were fulfilled.

4) The trend probability was re-enforced by the absence of any attempt at gap closure after the first two hours.

5) Who has the muscle power to establish and maintain the repudiation of perceived value? Other time buyers, the Big guns of trading, that's who. Who wants to oppose them and try and fade their strength? Not me!

6) The long drawn out sideways trading set up a totally recognizable negative divergence. How so? As prices moved sideways aggregate tick volume continued to decline.

7) Having accepted after the first 15 minutes the high probability of a down trend, where is it likely to end? Here we have Fibonacci to help us.
All these clues were there and whether I traded them or not is irrelevant.

Furthermore the whole set up was originally presented when the long term VAH proved to be solid resistance on Wednesday morning. Everything since has unfolded more or less by the book (Markets in Profile) since then.

Bruce my contributions today were meant to be helpful. If you wish to continue discussion at intervals out of the forum I'd be happy to - just give me your email address.

Have a great weekend. I'm out of here.

P.S. Forgive the confused identity and signature. I did not realize that I had registered here some years ago. So no more Warwick, just Dafydd. (my old registration) with the D.W. signature.

It's all good DW and thanks for elaborating...I had 3 campaigns just for the record....two winners and one loser...you can go back and read the posts if you like and check the time and prices......no biggie to me

Today the trend traders won...no debate from me there.....they can have the two to 3 days per month it does that...I'll trade for the other days and have less impressive results on these days....I love to fight the trend and always will because nobody knows when the trend will end......for me it's where the greatest reward is....others trade for these trend days and that works for them...



I'm trying to get a handle on long term value and if you have a grip on it (that isn't so subjective) then I want to hear about it....

You are correct that it doesn't matter if anyones trades are actual or not....I'm a big advocate of posting reasons for trades and explainations...otherwise it's all a bunch of garbage and just satisfying ego's on another level....

so far you are perfect on the 32 level ..well done.........I'm certainly not above or better then anyone and I am not afraid to admit that I can still learn....

I was just hoping that you (Warwick) would elaborate and you did...so that's cool.....I was hoping someone would step up to get involved in my "longer term profiles thread". If you wish to discuss them in private email than that is fine too but I'd rather have the forum readers benefit if you happen to know this stuff


Just curious...what happens if we bust 32 and retest 27.50...does this mean the fib players where wrong......? So many are trading from the left side , that's why I ask for examples so we can "watch" ideas unfold over time....hopefully in repeatable patterns....

Thanks

Bruce

Could you elaborate on points 3 and 6....I assume # 3 is from Crabels work...#6 interests me most and the long term profiles.....private email is fine if you wish...

the other question I have is that you posted a target of 1320 the other day....so what happens when we get to 1325 ( todays low) and you are only 5 points from that target...besides the 1332 target you mentioned today.....

You are only 5 points off a target so where does the stop go...? Markets closing up at 1335 - 1336 area so I would doubt that you are risking 10 points to capture an additional 5 points of profit...Thanks D.W..enjoy the weekend