Friday 01-04-08

Longs started in overnight at 48 even......52.50 is first target.

here is a method that has worked well this week and in general with the pickup in Volatility...Gio, you may find this interesting.....every day this week ..including today it was profitable....I didn't trade this way except for yesterday..anyway here is the link when you have time and if your interested...I added this here in case Alex was/is looking for a method too...

http://www.mypivots.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1337

im scaling out of some at ur 34.5

thoughts turn to where will the hour break out come and will they front run it....? still need the 37.50

thanks for the link bruce - i bookmarked it and will read it over the weekend - right now im trying to manage this short and i see we are trading against each other for the time being :)

ADDED AT 33.75...SAME TARGET

FINAL ADD O/N AT 29.25...NOW 35 BECOMES TARGET..NEVER A FOURTH FOR ME

the 'market internals' i look at havnt given any indication of a reversal yet - im holding to one-thirds till they do - sorry ur taking so much heat

However, i do see that the OEX 60 min is at one of the critical fib numbers i look at - fib 1.27 - hence, the front leg of the ugly dragon? whimsical :)

i might start taking profits and go flat soon



[file]OEX.jpg,126,,0[/file]

bruce - i show some support here off the 10kv



[file]ES_10kpic3.jpg,126,,0[/file]

I guess we;ll see Gio..I stopped some of the bleeding at 33.75 as that was the add-on after the initial entry of 37.50.....will feel much better if I can get that 1435 to print...single prints up there should get tested....but I said that the other day too...lol...been a difficult 3 weeks for me but that will happen when you trade this way around the holidays........just comes with my style of trading..normally i will put on initial position and then add two more times if needed.....so I am at max today......you did well!!

So ALEX this is a good example..the 29.25 did well, the 33.75 broke even and the 37.50's are losing if you look at it in this simplistic fashion.....I went in with 6 the first time, 6 the second and 8 on the last...I'm a small fry and always will be with this style of trading...a smarter thing to have done would be to get out on all at the 33.75 as that would be close to break even...sometimes you just feel like holding on.....even if it takes away some of your days profit......after a while you sometimes like to do what "feels" right instead of following the rules perfectly...I think it is ok to break your rules if you PLAN to do it...this is quite different then breaking your rules because you where emotional and messed up....you need to have some fun and latitude sometimes otherwise this wears you down..over time!!nuff said

Update on that prediction...I keep getting stopped out at 1 tick profit and back in....but now new low of 1391..ok...any much lower got me thinking....this week the hardest for me in a long time, in terms of direction..I thought we would me up much up by now given last week, but 71 pts down for it to go up same had to go lower..but how much lower is the question.

Yes, its going to turn up a good 40-55 pts but at what price...today should tell I think. So yes I still at lower price of 1393.50 and both at 1 tick profit..1393.75.

If I get stopped out will try again....but depends on price and time