Qualifying Prices with time!
I thought this was an interesting chart from last Thursday. You can see how they tried to break down from the hour lows quite a few times only to have a bit of a rally at the end of the day ( not shown on this chart)
This is a one minute chart and it shows how there where only four COMPLETE one minute bars that actually traded below the hour lows. The rest of them traded through the hour low price. So only 4 bars had highs and lows below the hour low. Not much time spent below that key price. I present this as it may help some qualify there support and resistance zones by using TIME. We can ask the question:
Is more time spent above our support zone as it gets tested? If the answer is yes then long may be the way to go. just an idea...
This is a one minute chart and it shows how there where only four COMPLETE one minute bars that actually traded below the hour lows. The rest of them traded through the hour low price. So only 4 bars had highs and lows below the hour low. Not much time spent below that key price. I present this as it may help some qualify there support and resistance zones by using TIME. We can ask the question:
Is more time spent above our support zone as it gets tested? If the answer is yes then long may be the way to go. just an idea...
Click image for original size
Thanks for the very detailed response, pips. I played with 1-2-3's for quite a bit and couldn't get them profitable. One thing I notice, though, is that I am working with 2 to 1, 3 to 1, or maybe 4 to 1 reward/risk scenarios, and what you have above is up to 100 to 1. I couldn't get the winning percentages high enough to be net positive outcome for those reward/risk ratios I had, since the pattern seemed to produce far too many shakeouts and false signals.
I couldn't get anything near the 75% win/loss that you do. But the 100 to 1 reward/risk would really do the trick, because at that level the break even point is about .99% winners (just a fraction under 1% wins), so anything above that is net positive. Perhaps your ability to choose futures option plays with reward/risk ratios as high as 100 to 1 are a missing piece I didn't have when I couldn't get anywhere with the 1-2-3's? Anyway, thanks for the info, it sure is eye-opening.
I couldn't get anything near the 75% win/loss that you do. But the 100 to 1 reward/risk would really do the trick, because at that level the break even point is about .99% winners (just a fraction under 1% wins), so anything above that is net positive. Perhaps your ability to choose futures option plays with reward/risk ratios as high as 100 to 1 are a missing piece I didn't have when I couldn't get anywhere with the 1-2-3's? Anyway, thanks for the info, it sure is eye-opening.
The way i am reading this is I think pips is using a "deep-pockets" approach, giving the new trade setup the room and time it needs to work, as long as the initial 1-2-3 pattern remains intact / valid he stays in the trade. With that said, I realize this does not fully account for the high win%, as you point out, but I sense it might be part of the overall approach and result.
Yes, and I think he has some outstanding abilities that the rest of us simply don't have, and unless he explains them (something he won't do, and I don't blame him) and they could actually be duplicated, the 1-2-3 remains useless to me.
Wish I could offer more to the discussion, but I am lucky if I am right half the time...
I'm not complaining about my own methodology, I'm actually quite happy with it, it's just that when I see something so far above my level I want to know if there is anything I can learn to move my own trading up a notch.
I saw a show yesterday on television that was about the three most respected, top-performing hedge fund managers of all time. According to the show, one was Michael Steinhardt, who, over 28 years, averaged 24% per year, and the other was Boone Pickens, who made billions, and averaged 37%. Amongst hedge funds with proven records over time, these guys are the best of the best, they said.
Now, I know that this type of hedge fund trading isn't mini daytrading with small lots sizes where liquidity isn't much of a factor, but still, to be able to beat these guys consistently, well, I think that would be something else. When I see people making, at their high end, perhaps 1,000X+ those returns, well, not only can't I comprehend that, I surely can't change my trading plan to reflect that as my new goal.
I also find it incredible that most people that make that kind of return, that 1000X+ more than the best hedge fund traders, find these hedge fund guys laughable, as well as their rates of return. I'd love to have the kind of skill to laugh at the best of the best, but I'd be happy to just be in the group with them. I can't imagine laughing at Tiger Woods and saying what a chump he is, and how his game ain't much. I guess there is just a whole other plane of skill I (or these hedge fund guys) just can't imagine...
I saw a show yesterday on television that was about the three most respected, top-performing hedge fund managers of all time. According to the show, one was Michael Steinhardt, who, over 28 years, averaged 24% per year, and the other was Boone Pickens, who made billions, and averaged 37%. Amongst hedge funds with proven records over time, these guys are the best of the best, they said.
Now, I know that this type of hedge fund trading isn't mini daytrading with small lots sizes where liquidity isn't much of a factor, but still, to be able to beat these guys consistently, well, I think that would be something else. When I see people making, at their high end, perhaps 1,000X+ those returns, well, not only can't I comprehend that, I surely can't change my trading plan to reflect that as my new goal.
I also find it incredible that most people that make that kind of return, that 1000X+ more than the best hedge fund traders, find these hedge fund guys laughable, as well as their rates of return. I'd love to have the kind of skill to laugh at the best of the best, but I'd be happy to just be in the group with them. I can't imagine laughing at Tiger Woods and saying what a chump he is, and how his game ain't much. I guess there is just a whole other plane of skill I (or these hedge fund guys) just can't imagine...
Hello pips2007,
have you ever looked into trading methods based on Astro ? If yes, I'd be interested to hear about your opinion.
I have done some reading about Astro, Gann ...have played with the ephemeris, flux lines etc.
Oh, btw...you once mentioned a signal service that you use or have used for timing...could you give me the url ?
Thank you.
Martin
have you ever looked into trading methods based on Astro ? If yes, I'd be interested to hear about your opinion.
I have done some reading about Astro, Gann ...have played with the ephemeris, flux lines etc.
Oh, btw...you once mentioned a signal service that you use or have used for timing...could you give me the url ?
Thank you.
Martin
quote:
Originally posted by pips2007
I wish somebody told me this over 2 years ago...would never have lost like I did....but everybody told me the same old same about daytrading and they were all wrong.
Pips2007,
I see that you wish that someone had helped you before you lost tons of time and money ... so perhaps you can help some of us who are still trying to figure out our niche in the market.
If you could post your trade entries and expected HIGH or LOW AFTER you enter the trade ... it would be very helpful for all of us to follow the expert
And I can't see how it could harm you in any way to do so.
lol, why play along with this guy who never gets stopped out? how many times have we heard this nonsense, i get x return but i will not tell you how.
he is a little sad and a little pathetic. lets see his statements, susan
he is a little sad and a little pathetic. lets see his statements, susan
quote:
Originally posted by sue1jeff
lol, why play along with this guy who never gets stopped out? how many times have we heard this nonsense, i get x return but i will not tell you how.
he is a little sad and a little pathetic. lets see his statements, susan
Yeah ... You're right. All these guys here like Voodoo1 etc. who are so eager to jump all over any claims made by vendors for some reason avoid jumping all over these claims by Pips2007.
He may not be "selling" anything - but he's still encouraging newbie trsaders to waste a lot of time and effort which amounts to the same cost anyway.
Where's the beef Pips2007? Give us some of your predictions/forecasts/projections/prognostications/trade entries ... whatever you call them
nkhoi and the rest:
no its not KF method. I know who KF is as he is on Pal and I been on his free trial room...for a bit last year a few mins and out. So to answer your question I do not know his method.
Well when I stated I lost a lot in the time preceding the last 6 months and nobody helped me...well I went all over looking for help, Tzone, naturus, Twaves( decent caller), Jay double nickel, emini trade room, russ day traders, on and on and on. Now, all the time I would listen to so called traders who had been trading 4,5,6,10 years but there weren' any good....I kept losing with the rest. Naturus site was great..she was making 25-45 pts a day..then I go in the room and she gives 5 entry points, conservative, aggressive and some other nonsense...she still has 50 people in there with $249.00 a month. She never made even 10 pts a day the way I figure it out..but all you people think she is the guru..she charging and no statements..but still you folks still there.
So, since I'm not asking you for YOUR MONEY, and I don't care if you do not believe me....I'm happy and making money thats all that counts.
If you read my posts I have given clues...one of them is the big boys do not use all this bs that all the retail daytraders use. I have said that many times..but you people still do not want to belive me.
The 1-2-3 methods do work...if you know how to use them..I do not use them daytrading..but use them on commodities on longer term charts..they work great...50% retracement rule works like a charm on longer term charts.
What do you think the s&p500 and dow and er etc did..just recently...retraced more than 50%. Now do I have to hold your hand and tell you what the 50% retracement rule is or can't you just google it.
Happens every year, in most mkts and stock, commodities..but most people don't have the patience to do the trade on options and wait it out..because they too busy listening to the so called Xperts and gurus and course sellers telling them which way the mkt is going. YOu can make a killing with the 50% rule..but you need patience and the ability to control your mind...call it option insurance...you know want insurance is now. You pay car insurance every year and you don't bitch and complain to the car insurance company that you paid premiums and no claim for years...same thing...with 50% rule...option insurance..but when the claim comes in..its usu, 20,30,40 times the premium depending on the TV and Volatility. Oops do I need to hold your hand here too? Oh you want to make $50k tommorrow..not in 6 months or a year with only 2k put out or 1k..if it was in a NSC.
If you go back and check my posts I stated 6 months ago or so the interest rates would be down to 3.5% or 3% by mid 2008. But since Bernanke did not drop them slowly and all the gurus back in Sept were saying no rate cuts..the FEd may increase cuz inflation...don't believe me check it out...noW LOOK WHAT HAPPENED. And the gurus..they reversed course and you believed them then and you believe them now..recession...herd, sheep mentality..just like your daytrading ways.
YOu know how much money you could have made on the Eurodollar call option each pt is 25 dollars and the from the 5% rate when I wrote this to 3.5 %..go figure it out...$3750.00 in intrinsic value...if you had 5 options 1.50 off it was cheap back then...and had some time value....with the recent volatility...you know how much those options are??? Do I still need to hold your hand.
Finally, I trade by the charts and formations on commodities...for day trading I trade by the charts and mkt has high price or low price..you have to figure it out get in as close...to the price and either go short or long. And as I said before if you mkt direction then you on your way..easy 10 pts a day.
Some jackass comment saying I never got stopped out...well that was true when I was holding overnight...I use to be down..but I knew the turn date and it never failed me...and I would run it till the ???? point.
What do you think happened Yesterday-Wednesday...It went up to the ???? point.
So do the daytraders who have a closed and small mind..only can trade one way...cannot open their eyes to a better and bigger way...you will be where you are now and in 5 years.
??? point..figure it out or ask Bruce M....how many pts was that....oh 50 or 60 or 70 form the low???? Could you have got 10 pts if you knew mkt direction. You think that comes from knowing s/r or the ususal nonsense. Now you see...your mind opened up a bit...on how I make those points....a day...patience,faith and knowledge...not scalp and usual bs. But your mind cant conceive it although it played out in the real world yesterday, daybefore and today.
nkhoi...I think BruceM is a great trader and he been doing it for a while. But I don't use his style...however he has been telling a lot of how to trade. Now do I have to spoon feed you here to.
Man I have given you guys enough clues and knowledge and I've even proved it to you with the mkt action of the last days in this post to make you lots and lots of money..but most of you traders probably still don't get it...
If you get 10 pts a week not hard at all.....and start with 10,000 guess way you be in a year.
So, don't worry about my trading...I'm not asking for your help. I don't want your money cuz I have mine.
Free your mind and the dollars will follow...Cuz you don't want to get in the same old Jam..now that you reached that age when YOU suppose to be a man..I mean good trader. Good times bad times we all had our share, all you need now is good times...these are the good times.
Got to go. Refill on the Johnnie scotch.
Good luck
no its not KF method. I know who KF is as he is on Pal and I been on his free trial room...for a bit last year a few mins and out. So to answer your question I do not know his method.
Well when I stated I lost a lot in the time preceding the last 6 months and nobody helped me...well I went all over looking for help, Tzone, naturus, Twaves( decent caller), Jay double nickel, emini trade room, russ day traders, on and on and on. Now, all the time I would listen to so called traders who had been trading 4,5,6,10 years but there weren' any good....I kept losing with the rest. Naturus site was great..she was making 25-45 pts a day..then I go in the room and she gives 5 entry points, conservative, aggressive and some other nonsense...she still has 50 people in there with $249.00 a month. She never made even 10 pts a day the way I figure it out..but all you people think she is the guru..she charging and no statements..but still you folks still there.
So, since I'm not asking you for YOUR MONEY, and I don't care if you do not believe me....I'm happy and making money thats all that counts.
If you read my posts I have given clues...one of them is the big boys do not use all this bs that all the retail daytraders use. I have said that many times..but you people still do not want to belive me.
The 1-2-3 methods do work...if you know how to use them..I do not use them daytrading..but use them on commodities on longer term charts..they work great...50% retracement rule works like a charm on longer term charts.
What do you think the s&p500 and dow and er etc did..just recently...retraced more than 50%. Now do I have to hold your hand and tell you what the 50% retracement rule is or can't you just google it.
Happens every year, in most mkts and stock, commodities..but most people don't have the patience to do the trade on options and wait it out..because they too busy listening to the so called Xperts and gurus and course sellers telling them which way the mkt is going. YOu can make a killing with the 50% rule..but you need patience and the ability to control your mind...call it option insurance...you know want insurance is now. You pay car insurance every year and you don't bitch and complain to the car insurance company that you paid premiums and no claim for years...same thing...with 50% rule...option insurance..but when the claim comes in..its usu, 20,30,40 times the premium depending on the TV and Volatility. Oops do I need to hold your hand here too? Oh you want to make $50k tommorrow..not in 6 months or a year with only 2k put out or 1k..if it was in a NSC.
If you go back and check my posts I stated 6 months ago or so the interest rates would be down to 3.5% or 3% by mid 2008. But since Bernanke did not drop them slowly and all the gurus back in Sept were saying no rate cuts..the FEd may increase cuz inflation...don't believe me check it out...noW LOOK WHAT HAPPENED. And the gurus..they reversed course and you believed them then and you believe them now..recession...herd, sheep mentality..just like your daytrading ways.
YOu know how much money you could have made on the Eurodollar call option each pt is 25 dollars and the from the 5% rate when I wrote this to 3.5 %..go figure it out...$3750.00 in intrinsic value...if you had 5 options 1.50 off it was cheap back then...and had some time value....with the recent volatility...you know how much those options are??? Do I still need to hold your hand.
Finally, I trade by the charts and formations on commodities...for day trading I trade by the charts and mkt has high price or low price..you have to figure it out get in as close...to the price and either go short or long. And as I said before if you mkt direction then you on your way..easy 10 pts a day.
Some jackass comment saying I never got stopped out...well that was true when I was holding overnight...I use to be down..but I knew the turn date and it never failed me...and I would run it till the ???? point.
What do you think happened Yesterday-Wednesday...It went up to the ???? point.
So do the daytraders who have a closed and small mind..only can trade one way...cannot open their eyes to a better and bigger way...you will be where you are now and in 5 years.
??? point..figure it out or ask Bruce M....how many pts was that....oh 50 or 60 or 70 form the low???? Could you have got 10 pts if you knew mkt direction. You think that comes from knowing s/r or the ususal nonsense. Now you see...your mind opened up a bit...on how I make those points....a day...patience,faith and knowledge...not scalp and usual bs. But your mind cant conceive it although it played out in the real world yesterday, daybefore and today.
nkhoi...I think BruceM is a great trader and he been doing it for a while. But I don't use his style...however he has been telling a lot of how to trade. Now do I have to spoon feed you here to.
Man I have given you guys enough clues and knowledge and I've even proved it to you with the mkt action of the last days in this post to make you lots and lots of money..but most of you traders probably still don't get it...
If you get 10 pts a week not hard at all.....and start with 10,000 guess way you be in a year.
So, don't worry about my trading...I'm not asking for your help. I don't want your money cuz I have mine.
Free your mind and the dollars will follow...Cuz you don't want to get in the same old Jam..now that you reached that age when YOU suppose to be a man..I mean good trader. Good times bad times we all had our share, all you need now is good times...these are the good times.
Got to go. Refill on the Johnnie scotch.
Good luck
Jim - fair enough, thanks for your reply.
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