6 June 2005 (Monday)

Session Start: Mon Jun 06 03:30:13 2005
Session Ident: #t1
[10:38:02] <guy> ER2 chart so far:
[10:38:11] <signal>
[10:38:39] <guy> alpha is relatively flat and k-line also giving no direction.
[10:39:23] <fspeculator> guy i wonder if you can use your tools in other markets
[10:39:36] <fspeculator> most US indices have been dead recently
[10:39:51] <fspeculator> i'm looking at FX lately
[10:40:29] <guy> all of the ToolPack tools apply to FX I believe
[10:40:54] <fspeculator> fx has no tick or vix or prem
[10:40:59] <fspeculator> it's just price
[10:41:24] <fspeculator> i thought some of your stuff is non-price
[10:44:08] <guy> On ER2 chart the market is at VAL and DVAL I believe
[10:44:52] <guy> i think the FX has tick instead of volume and tick is a proxy for volume - fspec
[10:45:27] <guy> Here is the ES price chart so far
[10:45:34] <signal>
[10:45:42] <guy> same sort of story atm - flat action from alpha
[10:46:20] <guy> it looks like oil is down about a $1 from high to low on the day so far...
[10:49:59] <guy> Here is the ER2 chart up to now
[10:50:10] <signal>
[10:50:15] <tuna> re down spoos
[10:50:25] <guy> the classic trade here is to go long now off the IBL + Friday low + VAL + DVAL
[10:50:45] <guy> so you have a number of lines that form a cluster here for a support level to get long off
[10:50:52] <guy> type risk is 1 to 2 handles
[10:51:05] <guy> personally I would consider this an average trade set-up
[10:51:11] <guy> and as such am not going to take it
[10:51:49] <guy> I would look for a buy signal from alpha to support that decision and take this trade's risk/return
[10:52:00] <guy> from an average r/r to a good or great r/r
[10:53:22] <guy> On ER2 we have RE to the downside - depending on how you define RE - i.e. how many ticks is RE for you
[10:53:52] <guy> we need to watch and see if this RE brings in new sellers or if the test of lower prices fails...
[10:58:30] <fspeculator> about your oil comment
[10:58:39] <fspeculator> there was some news last week
[10:58:57] <fspeculator> that china might be putting reserves into oil
[10:59:15] <fspeculator> sortof like US has done with its "Strategic Petroleum Reserves
[11:20:08] <guy> thanks fspec
[11:32:09] <signal>
[11:32:15] <guy> Just got an alert from new DVATool that we got a single formed in the YM
[11:32:51] <guy> A quick look at the YM chart shows the white dotted single line:
[11:32:53] <signal>
[11:33:13] <guy> And the MP graphic confirms that:
[11:33:18] <signal>
[11:34:29] <fspeculator> YM 200MA is right here
[11:37:18] <fspeculator> 10425
[11:45:44] <guy> which MA fspec?
[11:45:48] <guy> sma ema ?
[12:02:25] <signal>
[12:02:49] <signal>
[12:03:30] <signal> The first image posted above shows the alert that popped up when the single on the YM was filled in.
[12:03:53] <signal> The second image shows that the Single Print line on the YM chart has changed from white to red indicating that the single has filled.
[12:04:20] <signal> There is an option to remove this line once the single has filled. Otherwise it is removed the following day.
[12:10:08] <signal>
[12:20:28] <signal>
[12:21:05] <guy> This is where we'd short the market because of the DVAH and the RE on the downside but I have no alpha confirmation so still standing aside...
[12:34:04] <mashhad> cweed, u took a long on er?
[12:42:48] <fspeculator> guy did you track today's shorts vs singles in SP/YM?
[12:44:06] <guy> i don't understand fspec?
[12:52:58] <fspeculator> did you take any trades vs singles today?
[12:53:05] <fspeculator> real or simulated
[12:53:15] <fspeculator> (for your singles trade journal)
[13:11:33] <fspeculator> [20:10] <fspeculator> Russia is building gold reserves
[13:11:34] <fspeculator> [20:11] <fspeculator> http://en.rian.ru/business/20050606/40475809.html
[13:25:34] <guy> fspec: i'm only trading singles against ER2 and then only when alpha confirms it
[13:25:43] <guy> so the answer is no to the YM singles
[13:25:48] <guy> however...
[13:26:01] <guy> let's take a look at that single trade and see how it would have done so far...
[13:43:31] <fspeculator> guy does alpha work with Eurofx?
[13:45:39] <guy_afk> did my last chart of the YM come through?
[13:46:00] <guy_afk> I was going to show the draw down on the YM single print trade
[13:46:14] <guy_afk> if anybody was trading it...
[13:46:21] <fspeculator> y, chart came through
[13:46:35] <fspeculator> i'm a bit slow bec i 'm juggling positions
[13:46:37] <guy_afk> did it have the text showing the 11 point draw down marked on the chart?
[13:46:45] <fspeculator> y
[13:46:48] <guy_afk> thx
[13:46:57] <guy_afk> you focus on your trade and chat when you're flat
[13:47:44] <fspeculator> notice that ES found support in yLo
[13:47:54] <fspeculator> probed below, came back in
[13:48:15] <fspeculator> and now it's trading for almost 2hr inside yRange
[13:48:39] <fspeculator> i think we're back to 2003 action in ES
[13:48:43] <fspeculator> a few wild days
[13:48:50] <fspeculator> then 10pt weekly ranges
[13:49:12] <fspeculator> taking the singles means it'll make new highs
[13:49:27] <fspeculator> i.e. ES 1198
[13:51:23] <guy_afk> interesting theory
[13:51:58] <fspeculator> i thought it was also part of your own strategy
[13:52:27] <fspeculator> YM also has single 508
[13:54:50] <guy> Here are the singles on YM that fspec is talking about:
[13:54:55] <signal>
[13:55:18] <guy> I love this new feature in the DVATool - tells you the bracket and date the single was created on and the price
[13:55:24] <guy> and does it all for you automatically
[13:55:31] <guy> for any symbol
[13:55:58] <fspeculator> y, it looks very helpful
[13:56:48] <guy> this is the first day that it's running live on subscribers computers and i haven't heard any complaints yet...
[14:02:04] <guy> Here are the RF's
[14:02:15] <signal>
[14:06:56] <fspeculator> guy your alpha is bullish ?
[14:14:16] <signal>
[14:14:50] <signal>
[14:14:51] <guy> If the DVATool is working correctly then this shows a Single Print short signal in ER2
[14:16:52] <guy> I've just confirmed that on the MP chart and it looks like a valid signal
[14:16:56] <signal>
[14:17:21] <guy> so the forward test Single Print strategy will record a short for 2 contracts at 623.3
[14:17:39] <guy> with a stop at 624.3 and 2 targets at 2 and 6 points respectively
[14:20:49] <guy> here is the link to June's Single Print strategy
[14:23:29] <fspeculator> guy doesn't ER have a single below too?
[14:23:55] <guy> on what date fspec?
[14:24:04] <fspeculator> 621,90 today, unconfirmed
[14:24:45] <tuna> yup
[14:26:02] <guy> No there isn't
[14:26:07] <guy> at 621.9
[14:26:15] <guy> You should have 2 letters
[14:26:17] <guy> DL
[14:26:39] <guy> Go back to 09:33 today and look at the high for ER2
[14:26:50] <guy> 621.9 is high in D bracket
[14:27:07] <guy> so the MP chart that you are looking at is wrong I think
[14:27:18] <guy> that's the famos eSignal bug
[14:27:29] <guy> have a look at the MP chart created by DVATool:
[14:28:18] <signal>
[14:28:25] <fspeculator> have you told Esignal about the bug?
[14:28:33] <fspeculator> 7.9 is very problematic MP-wise
[14:28:43] <fspeculator> currencies don't work
[14:28:50] <fspeculator> and alignment is wrong in bonds
[14:28:50] <guy> fspec - bug was in previous versions of esignal as well
[14:28:59] <fspeculator> grrrrrrrrrr
[14:29:17] <guy> if you are serious about MP trading then you should use the DVATool with the eSignal MP chart
[14:29:43] <guy> the DVATool has (so far) proven to be far more accurate and will stop you getting into situations like this
[14:29:53] <guy> as $12.50 a month it's a bargin
[14:30:03] <fspeculator> guy why don't you do a deal with esignal? (seriously)
[14:30:21] <fspeculator> go write their MP code for the main app
[14:30:23] <guy> because this version of DVATool was only release on the weeekend
[14:30:35] <guy> it hasn't been out in the wild for long enough to have proved itself
[14:31:14] <fspeculator> i was talking about the main app
[14:33:24] <guy> the MP chart?
[14:33:32] <guy> or the whole of the eSignal application?
[14:34:12] <fspeculator> the MP chart
[14:34:26] <fspeculator> but not via efs, the C++ stuff
[14:34:57] <fspeculator> ok ER signles are probably bust
[14:36:12] <guy> I'm not really that interested in that sort of project fspec - i think that it would end up being too much effort for too little reward - not a good R/R ratio :)
[14:36:15] <fspeculator> here it gives you time to exit b/e
[14:36:38] <guy> well this Single Print trade is still running here
[14:36:43] <guy> the paper one
[14:36:53] <guy> it busts at 624.3
[14:37:10] <guy> and we don't move stop to b/e until 1st target at 621.3 hit
[15:18:02] <fspeculator> guy i thought the idea was...
[15:18:08] <fspeculator> if it double-prints in singles
[15:18:16] <fspeculator> we consider them done
[15:38:29] <guy> on the same day - yes fspec
[15:38:48] <guy> these singles are from fri
[15:38:53] <guy> but even on same day
[15:39:05] <guy> we can trade multiple times off singles created on same day
[15:39:22] <guy> but any day after singles have been filled then you can't use them again
[15:39:34] <guy> and if stopped out from a singles trade then can't use them again
[15:41:50] <tuna> that answer confused me
[15:43:56] <guy> which part tuna?
[15:45:14] <tuna> when u answered yes to fs's q,,then said u can trade multi time frames off todays singles
[15:46:26] <tuna> cuz i think he was asking abiut todays singles
[15:46:33] <guy> okay
[15:47:07] <guy> if a confirmed single forms today then it creates a price against which we trade
[15:48:06] <guy> we place a limit entry 1 tick inside that price/level so if the single is touched during the day then
[15:48:20] <guy> we can assume that we got into the trade if we're paper trading and
[15:48:30] <guy> we know that we've been filled if trading for real
[15:48:50] <guy> the stop is 1 point from entry (not single)
[15:49:16] <guy> targets are whatever you want but I'm using a simulation with 2 contracts and targets of 2 and 6 points]
[15:49:25] <guy> stop is moved to b/e when 1st target is filled
[15:49:54] <guy> if second target is filled then another limit order is placed at the same place as the last one
[15:50:09] <guy> and the same trade is repeated if the price returns to it
[15:50:15] <guy> but only on the same day
[15:50:27] <guy> if the trade is stopped out (even if partially profitable)
[15:50:42] <guy> then that single trade is over and that price level is not used again
[15:51:19] <guy> but until the trade is stopped out at a loss, or partial profit then that price is continually used during the day
[15:52:04] <guy> i.e. so long as the trade runs to full profit completion the price is continually used
[15:52:19] <guy> even though the singles have been filled
[15:52:25] <tuna> ic
[15:52:35] <guy> but these are just my rules
[15:52:42] <tuna> sure
[15:52:48] <guy> adapt them to the most profitable strategy for yourself
[15:53:10] <guy> that's what I'm trying to do
[16:11:04] <guy> According to the rules for Single Print Forward test this trade exits at 623.1 which is the first price traded at or after 16:10:00
[16:11:24] <guy> so a measly 2 tick profit on this trade
[16:18:26] <guy> Here is a chart that shows the Single Print trade in the ER2
[16:23:14] <guy> I think that this is the image:
[16:30:08] <tuna> yeah just kept rotating back and forth
[16:31:17] <tuna> greenie speaks tonite
[16:31:43] <tuna> could be a nice gap in the am..fwiw
[16:36:03] <guy> gn all
[16:36:13] <guy> could well tuna

Session Close: Mon Jun 06 16:41:24 2005