Crude tops up to $ 84.05 per barrel

Crude Oil topped up to $ 84.05 per barrel in New York, with the thought that Turkey might try to extinguish Kurdish fighters by invading northern Iraq. (Iraq has the world's 3rd largest oil reserves). There is always a reason for crude-oil to go bullish.

Oh, I don't really have one, it is more of a fundamental statement than a technical one. I was thinking that we now live in a bubble creation world, it was the stock market bubble, then the housing bubble (and the art bubble at about the same time), and I got to thinking the only thing that can save them now is another bubble to inflate. I was wondering what it would be, and then we get the energy and food price explosion. So, I figure that will be the next bubble.

If crude is $115 let's say, and there hasn't been any supply disruption to speak of, and no slowing of the decline in the U.S. dollar (and no reason I can see to think there will be one), and no slowing to the trend apparent right now, it seems only a matter of time until we get some kind of shock event, maybe crude is at $150 at that time, and we see $200 or higher in a flash. This thing seems to be in a negative feedback loop, with farm prices ramping up, then the fertilizer prices ramp up, and those take oil, and the pesticides rise, and those take oil, and so on and so on. And they get their next bubble. Time will tell, it's just a working theory 'for fun'.

I agree, any higher -with crude-oil reaching $ 115.21 per barrel, this could seem like the plot to "road warrior":
"former police officer is now a lone wanderer, travelling through a devasted Australia after a nuclear war looking for the now-priceless fuel of petrol. He lives to survive and is none too pleased when he finds himself the only hope of a small group of honest people running a remote oil refinery. He must protect them from the bike gang that is terrorising them whilst transporting their entire fuel supply to safety.Roaming the highways of post-apocalyptic Australia, years after he avenged his wife and son and his partner who were murdered by the motorcycle gang led by the evil Toecutter. Burnt out former Australian policeman Max Rockatansky, now known as "The Road Warrior" searching for sources of fuel, stumbles upon a gasoline refinery home to a community of survivors who are struggling for survival and finds the community is being terrorized by a band of brutal motorcyclists led by The Humangus and his finest warrior, Wez, who bid to loot all the gasoline from the refinery for themselves. The community hires Max, as Max agrees to help the community transport the gasoline across the highway and fight for freedom, as they are pursued by the Humangus and his warriors.Max is travelling in a post apocalypse Australia where Gasoline is the most valuable commodity. He becomes involved in a struggle between bandits and a town that has build defenses around a small refinery. He must cross the no man's land several times to allow them to make a dash for freedom, pursued by the bandits in their vehicles."

shall we see $ 150???

quote:

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CFTC Seeks Public Comment On NYMEX Exemption Request Involving Three New Contracts To Be Traded On The Dubai Mercantile Exchange

01/04/08

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is requesting public comment on a petition submitted by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) to amend an existing order in connection with contracts traded on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME).

In May 2007, the Commission issued an order under Section 4d of the Commodity Exchange Act permitting DME and clearing member futures commission merchants to hold customer positions and associated funds held in connection with NYMEX’s clearing of specific futures contracts traded on or subject to the rules of the DME with other funds held in the segregated account. NYMEX now requests that the Commission amend that order to include three new financially-settled contracts that will be listed on DME, namely the DME Brent Crude Oil cash-settled contract, the DME Oman Crude Oil cash-settled contract and the DME West Texas Intermediate cash-settled contract.

Comments regarding the exemption request should be submitted on or before April 16, 2008.

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How funny. I can't tell you how many times myself and my 'inner circle' of trader friends have used the expression 'the Mad Max world' we are headed for...

ENERGY HOT

LINKS:

International Energy Price Information=
Eia.Doe.Gov=
[url]http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/prices.html[/url]

Nymex=
[url]http://www.nymex.com/index.aspx[/url]

The Ice=
[url]https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml[/url]

Opec=
[url]http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/FileZ/Main-Dateien/SubSection1.html[/url]

Dme=-
[url]http://www.dubaimerc.com/[/url]

It's getting close to bubble burst point but it's not there yet...

DT, can you post that same chart in logscale? That's a totally different viewpoint.

What many people don't understand is that the expression 'it's gone parabolic' is really a mathematical myth. When a chart is scaled arithmetically, it acts, and tells your eye, that a move from $10-$20, for example, a 100% increase, is of the same significance as that same $10 move from $100 to $110, and we all know the significance is wildly different. Logscale looks at the price change in terms of a comparison to the current price. When you logscale almost every 'parabolic' chart you'll see it is actually trending smoothly and linearly.

When bubbles break it has little or nothing to do with the 'parabolic' rise. Even if it did, at what point on the parabolic scale do you expect the bust? All that could tell one is that an unsustainable move is underway. But, as I mentioned, it's really a mathematical inaccuracy to evaluate a chart in that manner when the price scale covers a very large range. I find it amazing how many times things reverse dead off a logscale trendline, while most watch a lower, arithmetic (when the word is used in this manner, the emphasis is on the third syllable, not the second, as it is when you use the word to describe your kid's class in school) trendline, and are befuddled by why it moved where it did. I hope this is useful information for everyone.

Hey Jim - here's the same chart with a log scale.



I want to continue this discussion and ask some questions but haven't got the time right this minute...

Looking forward to it.

Yesterday, Crude-Oil conquered a record high of $115.54 a barrel.

Can someone post a logscale chart of crude going back at least to 1998?

Crude oil is the most well known commodity from the energy sector and is the world's most actively traded commodity. Light, sweet crude oil is preferred by refiners because of its low sulfur content and relatively high yields of high value products.