Higher probability for a bullish week...

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Next week, there is a higher probability that it will be bullish. Weeks with Expiry Fridays tend to be more bullish than weeks without expiry Fridays:

The average gain for all weeks is 0.205%
The average gain for Expiry Friday weeks is 0.326%
The average gain excluding Expiry Friday weeks is 0.195%

Expiry Friday Weeks - bullish or bearish?

quote:
Originally posted by day trading

Next week, there is a higher probability that it will be bullish. Weeks with Expiry Fridays tend to be more bullish than weeks without expiry Fridays:

The average gain for all weeks is 0.205%
The average gain for Expiry Friday weeks is 0.326%
The average gain excluding Expiry Friday weeks is 0.195%

Expiry Friday Weeks - bullish or bearish?

How far back does your data go ? The recent secular bull phase may skew the data with an upside bias. Check the 2000-2002 time frame and see if the statistics hold up.

The reason I mention this is because they did a nice job of putting the long side of the market underwater for this expiration, I kinda doubt they will let the bulls off the hook prior to expiration.

My guess is the potential for upside will come in the two or three trading sessions after expiration. Prior to that however, I will not be surprised to see a retest of recent lows.

Data is from the DJIA (cash):
...990 weeks of data starting from 27 June 1986 to 10 June 2005. Of those 990 weeks, 75 of them were weeks with expiry Fridays...

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