22 April 2005

I don't think much of my comments from yesterday. Yes we had a Narrow Range (NR) as I suggested but it was technically an NR and the range was much wider than the usual range. If we take the ES for example, we see that the range yesterday was 17.5 points and if we look down the page today we can see that 10 day average range is 15.5, 20 day average is 13.4 and 40 day average is 12.4
So yesterday's range is well beyond all three averages.

You may also notice that the average range is increasing which is what we would expect considering the wider range days that we've been seeing of late.

The only new high/low that was made yesterday was the 10 day high by oil. Is oil about to take off again and challenge the highs again? Oil closed around $3 below its high on Friday.

Yesterday's strong afternoon rally certainly caught me (and a lot of other traders) by surprise and I lost some money trying to short that.

The gaps have not been closing on the following trading day and we can see that the raw gap play has been losing a lot of money this month.

A big day for us and many of the equity futures ending up in the middle of their 10 and 20 day ranges could well lead to a consolodation Friday for us today.

It is the day before the weekend, I don't believe that there are any market moving reports coming out today and we are in the middle of our 20 day range so this is an easy place for the market to tread water and trade back and forth in a consolidation Narrow Range day.

Let's see what happens.

Good luck to everyone today and have a great and safe weekend.

PS Feel free to add your own comments and opinions about how you think today might turn out and why you feel that way about today.